Most sucessful? - page 4
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So if im a farmer i should'nt sell my fruits to others to also get vitamins but i should just eat all of them myself and be the healthiest human on earth is that what you are saying?
If I could find a EA that is respectable and would work like the falcon on the hunt, I do not have a problem purchasing it. I have been known to buy a hunting dog or two over my lifetime.
I really did not mean to offend anyone's hard work. I realize that I will not ever be able to write code for several reasons, probably will have to purchase a couple.
Been trying to tweak some of the free ones out there for some time now. Really think I have found the falcon but still looking for the second one or even a bear dog.
Any suggestions where I could find these critters.
Forest, I really like the concept of the falcon on the hunt, I really took that to heart. Went back through the eas that I had been working with and stumbled back on a early one, may have found the combination for it. Seems like they are out there and you just have to crack the code to make them successful.
So where does this thread go from here. Anyone got any successful ones that they want to mention that are for sale? After the hunt with the falcon I realized that this process when I find what I am looking for will have to be a bond with it like the hunter and the dog. Every good dog I have ever had --we bonded. Actually have a good border collie now that wants to go on the hunt to round up the cattle.
Any suggestions, lets see where this goes.
If I could find a EA that is respectable and would work like the falcon on the hunt, I do not have a problem purchasing it. I have been known to buy a hunting dog or two over my lifetime.
I really did not mean to offend anyone's hard work. I realize that I will not ever be able to write code for several reasons, probably will have to purchase a couple.
Been trying to tweak some of the free ones out there for some time now. Really think I have found the falcon but still looking for the second one or even a bear dog.
Any suggestions where I could find these critters.
Forest, I really like the concept of the falcon on the hunt, I really took that to heart. Went back through the eas that I had been working with and stumbled back on a early one, may have found the combination for it. Seems like they are out there and you just have to crack the code to make them successful.
So where does this thread go from here. Anyone got any successful ones that they want to mention that are for sale? After the hunt with the falcon I realized that this process when I find what I am looking for will have to be a bond with it like the hunter and the dog. Every good dog I have ever had --we bonded. Actually have a good border collie now that wants to go on the hunt to round up the cattle.
Any suggestions, lets see where this goes.
I am actually developing a very strong falcon, my own holy grail -or close to it. I still have to work on it but it's really a killer!
It pays to learn to develop your own ea's, you could try.
Acceptable depends on you, is 300% over 10 years acceptable or not.
If you invest 100$ you say probably no, but if you invest 1Mio $ then 300% is way enough. To be honest, most people wants to get rich within a year or two starting with 100$. There might be one or two persons out there which made it, but the long term winning guys are very happy with a average of 2%/Month. Small stacked traders are most likely not even able to trade the daily chart with a good set stop while keeping their risk management working.
just a few cents from my side
In essence the probability of a win or trade gain represented by P(W) and the alternate probability of loss P(L) along with expected gain G and expected risk R gives us the wining formula P(W)*G - P(L)*R>0.
So for a winning EA we need to know the probability of a signal's success combined with its Gain and adjust if appropriate the risk R to a level of profitability that is acceptable.
So a suggested key characteristic of a successful EA is one that monitors the current probabilities of Success and adjusts R to keep in line with a possible change in the probability of success or stops trading when the probabiltiy goes below a certain value.
To be a more stable successful EA perhaps use more than one strategy based upon the above characteristic so as the market stability changes Probabilities a different strategy(s) can be used.
One last thought, but not sure how to apply it, is to use the statistical tool known as analysis of variance to monitor for significant market change.
In essence the probability of a win or trade gain represented by P(W) and the alternate probability of loss P(L) along with expected gain G and expected risk R gives us the wining formula P(W)*G - P(L)*R>0.
So for a winning EA we need to know the probability of a signal's success combined with its Gain and adjust if appropriate the risk R to a level of profitability that is acceptable.
So a suggested key characteristic of a successful EA is one that monitors the current probabilities of Success and adjusts R to keep in line with a possible change in the probability of success or stops trading when the probabiltiy goes below a certain value.
To be a more stable successful EA perhaps use more than one strategy based upon the above characteristic so as the market stability changes Probabilities a different strategy(s) can be used.
One last thought, but not sure how to apply it, is to use the statistical tool known as analysis of variance to monitor for significant market change.
There are some problematic issues here. To begin with any monitoring of data involves historical data. The moment “current” data is recorded, it becomes past data, and past data can never predict the future price action of the market. Never. No matter how sophisticated the analysis is.
If one could show a deterministic relation between past price action and future price action, that person would receive the Nobel prize in economics and become a very rich person.
We should learn some lessons from successful trend traders. They never try to predict the future price action of the market, they just follow the market. They ignore all the future fables that come out of Wall Street and the sensational-appeal-to-the-emotions media.
Silliness in Wall Street, for example, is ubiquitous. Some Wall Street firm or columnist or guru might say the S&P 500 is going to hit this level in April and it does hit that level. And before you know it people are exclaiming the genius of that firm or person.
This is just as silly as saying, “Flip that coin and I predict it will land on heads”, and what do you know? It lands on heads! And everyone will say, “You must be a genius!”
These people don’t understand the laws of probability and the law of large numbers—that there can be a large variance from the probable outcome if your sample is too small. That firm or person would have to make about 100 correct predictions to be rightfully declared as a genius.
Now there is a real problem if an ea is monitoring the “current” conditions of the market to determine what the trading activity of that ea should be. If the ea is monitoring current conditions it will be taking too small of a sample because “current” by definition limits the time domain to a small increment.
What does current mean anyway? One minute? One hour? One day? But is a day a large enough sample? Probably not, so the ea uses a larger time frame. It takes a broader time sample of the market to get more reliable data. But when it does this, the ea is dealing with historical data, and notwithstanding it is a sufficiently large sample, this past data cannot predict the future action of the market. This is the inescapable dilemma: Current means too small of a sample, historical means data which is unreliable and non-correlated with the future.
If one could show a deterministic relation between past price action and future price action, that person would receive the Nobel prize in economics and become a very rich person.
Where can i claim my nobel prize? ;) -> https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/138190
Don't quit your day job counting on it. Remember, you have to take a huge sample of data to claim anything statistically significant.
You could have a day where you indicator data and the movements coincide beautifully. But you have to demonstrate it the next day. And the next day. And the next. You need a large sample to confidently state there is a correlation approaching 1 or -1.
The only things in nature that have a Pearson coefficient of 1 or -1 are laws, such as the laws of physics.
However, you have touched on a point about trends which is important. Successful trend followers have a number of things in common. Here they are.
Successful trend traders stay away from the prediction business altogether and cling to the probability business going forward. They understand expectation value, payoff, and risk are the essential parameters.
They know they are going to lose some trades and they know they are going to win some trades. They don’t spend an inordinate amount of time with stochastics, RSI, CCI, doji’s, hammers, shooting stars, haramis, support and resistance levels, Bollinger band standard deviations or any method that explicitly or implicitly tries to predict the future action of the market.
They don’t have to because they make sure the laws of probabilities are on their side. It’s the probability not technical analysis that gives them their success.
Now, a trader has to start somewhere to enter a trade. If you can’t predict the future, why not just randomly enter the market with a long or short position?
Well, there is one conditional absolute prediction you can make about the market. In fact I would bet my farm, my house, my bank account, my whole estate on this, and I would always win.
Here is the prediction. If the price is on one side of the 20 period moving average it will always end up on the other side of the moving average eventually.
Now I said conditional absolute prediction. Here are the three conditions: First, the market has an infinite lifespan. Second, given a sufficient amount of time a crossover will occur. Third, you cannot predict when or to what price and time extent this crossover will happen. You can say this is a result of reversion to the mean or whatever fancy explanation you want, but a crossover will always happen.
So, as a forex trader, the metric we need to concern ourselves with is the inevitability of this crossover. We can manually enter a trade when this crossover occurs or let an ea do it for us and then sit back and let the laws of probability dictate the expectation values.
We could increase the probability of success if we enter when a larger moving average shows we are currently in a downtrend or uptrend, but we can never know if the trend will continue. So, we sit back and let the laws of probability dictate the expectation value.
We need not stress over losses. Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be. Why fret over it? Of course we would not be trading if we did not ahead of time determine our expectation value was high. It is impossible for any system or method to give a one hundred per cent win rate. Trend traders accept it and move on. They know that one hundred per cent win rates only happen in Ponzi schemes.
We never know how long a winning trend will continue so we can use an ea to monitor when the trend is ending and exit. But we should never exit a position that is winning no matter how tempting, no matter how much profit we have made. This is essential to boost the expectation value in the long term. In the reward/risk ratio you can set you stop loss at a predetermined fixed value, but the reward part should never be given an artificial constraint. Let your profits run should be engraved on the screens of our computer terminals. (I confess that I am tempted too often to get out if a price hits a Fibonacci extension).
I have an ea that exits you out of the trade when the trend makes a bend or a fish hook pattern. It works very well. You determine the degree of the fish hook before you exit. Using this ea, you don't have to sit at the computer screen agonizing over when to exit. You let your ea or falcon do that part.
One month using 2 lots per trade and a crossover method using one of my falcon ea's on a practice account, beginning with a 15,000.00 equity, I made about 8,000 in 20 days of trading, almost a 50% roi. However, that was one month and I would have to test the method for a longer period to validate the expectation value. Also, I did not let my profits run. I used a scalping approach. (In fact the method was very risky because one significant loss would have set me back quite a bit. I had a huge stop loss margin).
I am currently fine tuning safer methods of trading with my raptor ea's. I probably would be classified as a momentum moving average crossover trader. I might post my raptor ea's in the future.
I have an ea that exits you out of the trade when the trend makes a bend or a fish hook pattern. It works very well. You determine the degree of the fish hook before you exit. Using this ea, you don't have to sit at the computer screen agonizing over when to exit. You let your ea or falcon do that part.
Care to share this code.
Care to share this code.
I hesitate because, being I am not a programmer, one of my ea's started to gobble up my disk to 99% usage! I fixed the problem due to the graces of the competent and expert programmers on this site.
What I can do is tell you how to write the ea and what market condition it is monitoring. It is a simple ea and you could code it in one afternoon.
I probably will do this soon when I have time to explain the method.
Don't quit your day job counting on it. Remember, you have to take a huge sample of data to claim anything statistically significant.Used all available date
You could have a day where you indicator data and the movements coincide beautifully. But you have to demonstrate it the next day. And the next day. And the next. You need a large sample to confidently state there is a correlation approaching 1 or -1. Since market can change even with an unlimited large sample you cannot be confident
The only things in nature that have a Pearson coefficient of 1 or -1 are laws, such as the laws of physics.
However, you have touched on a point about trends which is important. Successful trend followers have a number of things in common. Here they are.
Successful trend traders stay away from the prediction business altogether and cling to the probability business going forward. They understand expectation value, payoff, and risk are the essential parameters. No trend trader would enter a trade if he thinks that the market is not going in his direction, this implies they are predicting
They know they are going to lose some trades and they know they are going to win some trades. Sure, everyone knows that nothing is guaranteed. They don’t spend an inordinate amount of time with stochastics, RSI, CCI, doji’s, hammers, shooting stars, haramis, support and resistance levels, Bollinger band standard deviations or any method that explicitly or implicitly tries to predict the future action of the market. I would not bet on this
They don’t have to because they make sure the laws of probabilities are on their side. It’s the probability not technical analysis that gives them their success. Whats the difference between trading probabilities and trading predictions?
Now, a trader has to start somewhere to enter a trade. If you can’t predict the future, why not just randomly enter the market with a long or short position?
Well, there is one conditional absolute prediction you can make about the market. In fact I would bet my farm, my house, my bank account, my whole estate on this, and I would always win.
Here is the prediction. If the price is on one side of the 20 period moving average it will always end up on the other side of the moving average eventually.
Now I said conditional absolute prediction. Here are the three conditions: First, the market has an infinite lifespan. Second, given a sufficient amount of time a crossover will occur. Third, you cannot predict when or to what price and time extent this crossover will happen. You can say this is a result of reversion to the mean or whatever fancy explanation you want, but a crossover will always happen.
since you are striktly against precitions you cannot make the abore precition. Following striktly the math there is the probability that the crossover will never occur. Yeah, a crossover is very likely to happen, but as always when dealing with probabilities not guaranteet . Whats your benefit? Since you do not know when it can take years or decades.
So, as a forex trader, the metric we need to concern ourselves with is the inevitability of this crossover. We can manually enter a trade when this crossover occurs or let an ea do it for us and then sit back and let the laws of probability dictate the expectation values.
We could increase the probability of success if we enter when a larger moving average shows we are currently in a downtrend or uptrend, but we can never know if the trend will continue. So, we sit back and let the laws of probability dictate the expectation value.
If you are assuming that there is no way to predict the market the probabillity is (due spread + commision) ALWAYS against you, which implies a negative expectation value ALWAYS!!!!