Suggestions for EA (Loosing to Profit) - page 8
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Hi there cod3: Any progress? How are the codes and "reverse" method? are they helpful for you?
Hi there cod3: Any progress? How are the codes and "reverse" method? are they helpful for you?
Hey DioStar, I am still testing 1:1 RR, I can't seem to figure out the logic to decide if I should reverse orders. Do you have any suggestions for making such decisions?
Here is the statement so far, for 1:1 RR ratio
Statement: 7064834 - 3your total trade = 32. Too small to judge out of the whole report. So, this what you CAN do.
In applied math, statistical probability, given small availability of data, the most accurate to make is something called biased interpolation work. The data that falls on that basis is either simultaneous but exclusive event data, the relative mode, or circumstantial events that has probability minimal.
I translate all that in layman terms for you. Concentrate on your consecutive wins, losses for this case. they are 2,4, at the moment.
Based on this 2 events: the probability will be altered by: increase your stop loss to say double from where it is, and at the same time, increase your TP to NOT more than 1.4 times ~ Golden ratio, to hit Fibo levels faster.
This the best so far, i can help cod3. Should you digest all this "brutal mambo-jambos", give yourself a good pat. because your EA needs you, and all your education.
your total trade = 32. Too small to judge out of the whole report. So, this what you CAN do.
In applied math, statistical probability, given small availability of data, the most accurate to make is something called biased interpolation work. The data that falls on that basis is either simultaneous but exclusive event data, the relative mode, or circumstantial events that has probability minimal.
I translate all that in layman terms for you. Concentrate on your consecutive wins, losses for this case. they are 2,4, at the moment.
Based on this 2 events: the probability will be altered by: increase your stop loss to say double from where it is, and at the same time, increase your TP to NOT more than 1.4 times ~ Golden ratio, to hit Fibo levels faster.
This the best so far, i can help cod3. Should you digest all this "brutal mambo-jambos", give yourself a good pat. because your EA needs you, and all your education.
How many forward trades do I need, to say OK, this system is garbage or NOT garbage? 1000+???
I'll give this 1:1 RR ratio test another 2-3 weeks, after i'll start changing the SL and TP values to what you recommended.
Thanks
How many forward trades do I need, to say OK, this system is garbage or NOT garbage? 1000+???
I'll give this 1:1 RR ratio test another 2-3 weeks, after i'll start changing the SL and TP values to what you recommended.
Thanks
I NEVER say its garbage. I said 32 trades is too small to judge the REPORT. Not SYSTEM. Don't tie-up the two, that's definitely incorrect, esp. in some slow, forward test, you've decided.
You only say your system is garbage, when say, all possibilities are exhausted but all results fail your expectation.
On a separate note:
I used to be doing only fwd test like what you are doing (and didnt believe in backtest), but after some hard-to hard discussion, and rational exchanges with more experienced others in testing stages, I dare tell you this:
A forward test is exactly = to a backtest. 100% convinced. In all cases, if you have the time and resources, by all means and wishes, continue fwd testing.
I NEVER say its garbage. I said 32 trades is too small to judge the REPORT. Not SYSTEM. Don't tie-up the two, that's definitely incorrect, esp. in some slow, forward test, you've decided.
You only say your system is garbage, when say, all possibilities are exhausted but all results fail your expectation.
On a separate note:
I used to be doing only fwd test like what you are doing (and didnt believe in backtest), but after some hard-to hard discussion, and rational exchanges with more experienced others in testing stages, I dare tell you this:
A forward test is exactly = to a backtest. 100% convinced. In all cases, if you have the time and resources, by all means and wishes, continue fwd testing.
I know you didn't, it's my analysis for a system, if profitable it's good, else it's garbage
I highly don't agree with forwardtest = backtest, but that is my opinion, which was formed after seeing systems that do so good in backtesting, but then fail in reality
Here are the results so far, it has recovered it's losses for now!
Statement: 7064834 - 3I highly don't agree with forwardtest = backtest, but that is my opinion, which was formed after seeing systems that do so good in backtesting, but then fail in reality
I've seen AND experienced all that too well, so I know much what you mean. Markets WILL be ahead than any sort of machine ...no denying.
But the issue here is different; its about testing a program. All you need to do is once your fwd test over, run a backtest on the same period, and compare results. If only they are not the same, then you may say there is diff between the two.
I've seen AND experienced all that too well, so I know much what you mean. Markets WILL be ahead than any sort of machine ...no denying.
But the issue here is different; its about testing a program. All you need to do is once your fwd test over, run a backtest on the same period, and compare results. If only they are not the same, then you may say there is diff between the two.
You are right, and that is the only way to validate backtesting, is to run a forward, then a backtest, then compare. But i can take a wild guess, that the results will not be identical.