is this EA back test results any good? - page 2
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The test length is 10 years with a fixed lot size.
It uses multiple time frames.
it is not based off any EA that I have seen - but that is not to say that there isn't one like it.
I am skeptical of it until I finish going through ALL the results.
I want to run the test with different lengths of time to test the accuracy also I will test it on my demo account over a 3 month time frame.
I am going to go through the figures today and see what silly errors I can find.
The test length is 10 years with a fixed lot size....
Looks to me like the green bars on the bottom of the picture shows the size changing and that indicates that it's Not a Fixed lot, but I've been wrong b4. Either way, it only changed the lot size once so not a big deal. The 200 trades after 10-years is a little too low for my taste. In order to double 10k in 10 years, it would suggest you take more risk and even more if you want 100k in 10 years. With that no-stoploss, it may very well mean no-sleeping. Lastly, I'll recommend testing it on another pair (modify the code if you have to) and see how it goes. Lastly, before putting real money behind this at least test it on Tick Mode. Just my 2/cents :)
one thing I have noticed is that my historical data is not clean. I have checked through some of the trades and found that data is missing so I am going to have to try this EA on my Demo account for a while.
I have also done a few tweaks to get it to trade more often and also tuned takeprofit a little. Not sure how everything will go when I test it on the demo account but I guess it is the sure fire way to see if the EA is a load of rubbish or not.
ok the answer is...
the EA is no good - reason: Just for a test I wrote a little EA that would buy at any price and sell when there was a profit no matter what size it was.
The results were roughly the same! so I guess it will work as long as there is a higher high and you are prepared to sit around and wait for it. Too bad if your last order was at the year peak eh?
hopes are still high ... have a little faith forexCoder 8))))
IMO. Forex Hype vs Forex Reality are really 2 different things. If I had to guess, I'd say this is just a phase to most people. To call yourself a full time trader you'd have to usually be one of the following things a) Work in the industry, by that I mean your OWN money is NOT put to risk exposure. b) Make money or have made money (retired) through some other avenue and forex win/loss don't mean much to you.
The market truly is Random 98% and most people here don't run Fully-Automated-EA's, they instead use some form of semi-automated process. When you test EA's, run it for all data (and symbols if you can) to note the areas where it failed. As such, you'll have to be very selective on when and where you use that EA. The rest I think is having the discipline of sticking with it, and knowing the statistical angles well enough to give you the confidence to stick with it.
I didn't get into this to program twenty-bucks EA's for people. I got into this to trade real money and create real wealth. If that cannot be done consistently then I might as well return to blackjack. Where the atmosphere is more social.
Same here :) I'm just feeling a bit down now, too many days have passed in which I was telling myself that the night is darkest just before dawn breaks. I need some wins to get me thinking positive again.
@ubzen i cannot support the idea that markets are 98% random. We would not have such things as trends. The overall trend is economic based. The intraday moves might look random, but if they are you could easily exploit them as long as your overall trend keeps holding.
@forexCoder, losses are fairly regular. From what i have heard even very professionals do not have a winning rate >50%. Some might even be profitable with only 20% wins. Of course you need to have a moneymanagement which works in the long run, being able to let a large amount of losses in a row happen.
But this is all offtopic.