Non-Farm Employment Strategy - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.04.04 09:49

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200K; Unemployment Rate to Slip to 6.6%.
  • February NFP Exceeded Market Expectations for First Time in Three-Months.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may in still a bullish outlook for the dollar (bearish EUR/USD) as employment is expected to increase another 200K in March, while the jobless rate is anticipated to narrow to an annualized 6.6% from 6.7%.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, a material pickup in job growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the reserve currency may struggle to hold its ground should the NFP report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.

The resilience in private sector consumption along with the ongoing decline in planned job cuts may generate a positive employment report, and a large uptick in job growth may highlight an improved forecast for the USD as the Fed continues to see a stronger recovery in 2014.

Nevertheless, the persistent slack in the real economy paired with the downtick in business confidence may drag on NFPs, and a dismal print may trigger a sharp selloff in the greenback as it weighs on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb 200K+; Unemployment Slips to 6.6%

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: March Employment Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release


  • Risks Larger Correction After Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.3800
  • Relative Strength Index Carving Bearish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3660 (61.8 retracement)

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) February 2014 :

niloufar mohamadi
niloufar mohamadi  

Francis Dogbe
Francis Dogbe  

i use pending orders in the trading non-farms news.

1. sell stop - with 50pips tp

2. buy stop - with 50 pip tip

All orders should be placed at the same time there is a probability it will go either direction - 'short and long' at the same time.


niloufar mohamadi
niloufar mohamadi  
next NFP
sathish kumar
sathish kumar  

NFP, some time market move two side, buy stop or sell stop method both tick and sl hit.

spread wide by most broker,it hard to scalp during NFP

Sergey Golubev:

Yes, it will be at 12:30 GMT, or 14:30 MQ MT5 time :

2013-08-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls]

The strategy is very simple one for/during nfp: "if you do not know how to trade - stay away" :)

I will be following this advised strategy.  (Just saying :P )
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