If someone offered you the following, which one would you be patient enough to take - page 3

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geekbot 2013.06.06 07:02 #
As said before, the answer to Tony's poll is too simple! An unknown remains an unknown until its an outcome... Statistics 101.
 
i won't accept it.
 
geekbot:
geekbot 2013.06.06 07:02 #
As said before, the answer to Tony's poll is too simple! An unknown remains an unknown until its an outcome... Statistics 101.
Guarantee from past performance perhaps
 
tonny:
Guarantee from past performance perhaps

from past performance?... unless the guarantor purchased a government bond with that payment or something more certain, it would be too risky!...

So if its just a simple fx signal then first of all draw-down needs to be managed well in the short run. The reason most would prefer the smaller payments is you get to know soon enough whether the signal is credible so from that angle, it is less risky.

 
ssn:

from past performance?... unless the guarantor purchased a government bond with that payment or something more certain, it would be too risky!...

So if its just a simple fx signal then first of all draw-down needs to be managed well in the short run. The reason most would prefer the smaller payments is you get to know soon enough whether the signal is credible so from that angle, it is less risky.

Why ?  all the trades might come in the last of the five years,  it is not specified that they are at regular intervals.  Equally the single $1m trade might happen in the first year . . .
 
I think it was inferred... If the small payments are all coming in the last year then as geekbot implied their NPV would be much less than the large future payment.
 
If in the past performance for say the last 10 years a strategy has made 100% every single year and you are given the strategy wont you expect 100% by the end of the year even though past performance shouldn't reflect future performance? In the poll the 1000 trades come in daily bits while the 1 trade comes anytime within the five years in an unknown date and time. Anyway ive finished what i was to do regarding this poll so byes keep arguing.
 
ssn:
I think it was inferred... If the small payments are all coming in the last year then as geekbot implied their NPV would be much less than the large future payment.
You made an assumption . . .   
 
But nobody asked who the someone is offering? address mail-id pls
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