GBPUSD Technical Analysis 02.06 - 09.06 : Trying to Reverse to Bullish

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

The price was on bear market rally for the last week trying to break few resistance lines and came very close to Sinkou Span B (one of the border of Ichimoku cloud). By the way - Ichimoku cloud is thin and it's already turned to bullish by color. But Tenkan abd Kijun lines are not indicating this bullish reversal, abd the price will will have 1.5237 and 1.5276 resistance levels on the way to this bullish reversal.

If the price will finally break 1.5237 and 1.5276 levels so we may have good uptrend with ranging market condition. If the price will not break those resistance lines - the bearish trend will be continuing with ranging market condition as well.

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price to break 1.5276 resistance (for D1 timeframe) with 1.5216 initial stop loss and 1.5340 initial take profit level
  • Recommendation to go short: none
  • Trading Summary: possible ranging

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for the next week)

2013-06-03 08:30 GMT | [GBP -Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)]

2013-06-03 14:00 GMT | [USD -ISM Manufacturing PMI]

2013-06-04 08:30 GMT | [GBP -Construction PMI]

2013-06-04 12:30 GMT | [USD -Trade Balance]

2013-06-05 08:30 GMT | [GBP -Service PMI]

2013-06-05 09:00 GMT | [EUR -Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

2013-06-05 12:15 GMT | [USD -ADP Employment Change]

2013-06-05 14:00 GMT | [USD -ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

2013-06-06 11:00 GMT | [GBP -BoE Interest Rate]

2013-06-07 08:30 GMT | [GBP -Trade Balance]

2013-06-07 08:30 GMT | [USD -Non-farm Payrolls]


 ResistanceSupport
1.5237
1.5168
1.5276
1.5140
1.5306
1.5110




SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bear market rally


Intraday Chart


Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu
6725
Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu  

My personal opinion is that the price will keep ranging following the red down trend line, for the week that is coming.

 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
launic:

My personal opinion is that the price will keep ranging following the red down trend line, for the week that is coming.

 


Yes, this is my opinion too - the price may иу continuing this rally to break 1.5237 resistance but it will not break 1.5276 and will continuing bearish with ranging:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.06.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

bearish with ranging

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.06.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu
6725
Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu  
newdigital:

Yes, this is my opinion too - the price may иу continuing this rally to break 1.5237 resistance but it will not break 1.5276 and will continuing bearish with ranging:


For your chart it's easy to see why you mention 1.5237 as resistance since it's the last daily highest,

but it's not clear how did you come to the second resistance 1.5276.

Please share if it's from your indicator (which I don't know how it works) or other.

Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu
6725
Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu  
Or it's just the last highest higher that the last one ?
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

This is the indicator from CodeBase coded by my friend: MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF and so on - I am making this technical analysis using free indicators only. 

Template and the explanation about this indicator is on this post. By the way - this indicator is part of old good manual trading system: MaksiGen system (or Paramon system). I will create separated threads about this good system.

Because I started this big thread Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 but it is 48 pages sorry ... but if you will read there so you will find MT5 indicators and MT5 EAs there.

Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu
6725
Laurentiu Octavian Niculescu  
newdigital:

This is the indicator from CodeBase coded by my friend: MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF and so on - I am making this technical analysis using free indicators only. 

Template and the explanation about this indicator is on this post. By the way - this indicator is part of old good manual trading system: MaksiGen system (or Paramon system). I will create separated threads about this good system.

Because I started this big thread Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 but it is 48 pages sorry ... but if you will read there so you will find MT5 indicators and MT5 EAs there.

Thanks!

This is an interesting indicator, I will test it.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

This is breakout for GBPUSD H1

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.06.03

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

gbpusd h1 breakout

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.06.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

We are having the following news event right now:

2013-06-03 08:30 GMT | [GBP -Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)]

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

How "to read" this news event?

  • result above 50 is bullish for the GBP, and result below 50 is bearish.
  • actual > forecast data is good for GBP

Previous data was 50.2; forecast was 50.2 too and actual data is 51.3



Why do we see downtrend for GBPUSD for now on M1 timeframe (this is the best timeframe to follow news events)? because price was already played on this events at 08:28, and it is 'the using correction after news event' is going for now.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

But if we are talking about D1 timeframe so it is nothing really happened about:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.06.03

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

gbpusd d1

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.06.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

Yes, this daily bar was opened above Sinkou Span B line (this line is the border between primary bearish and primary bullish) but price is inside Ichimoku cloud and it is indicating ranging condition. It means: everything may be happened in the near future.
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