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EURUSD Technical Analysis and Forecast 28.04 - 05.05 : Non-Trading Under Bearish

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  

Last week we had non-trading market condition (flat sideaway) within primary bearish: price was below Ichimoku cloud and still did not cross Senkou Span A resistance line to go for uptrend. On the other side - the price was trying to cross 1.2973 support line but it was following Senkou Span A resistance line for whole the week.

If the price will cross 1.2954 support line so the bearish trend will be continuing. If the price will cross one of the border of the cloud (Sinkou Span A) - we will see ranging market condition with the possibility of the trend reversal.

  • Recommendation for long: None
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price crossing 1.2954 support lines with initial stop loss 1.3128.
  • Trading Summary: possible short

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for the next week)

2013-04-29 12:30 GMT | [USD - PCE core]

2013-04-29 14:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales] 

2013-04-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]  

2013-05-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

2013-05-01 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate

2013-05-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls

 

 

ResistanceSupport
1.30561.2990
1.3128 1.2988 
1.3201 1.2373 
1.3224 1.2954 

 

SUMMARY : Bearish

TREND : Sideway

 

Intraday Analysis

 

 

Price is on sideway market floating between 1.3047 and 1.2988 levels. If price will cross 1.3947 and 1.3093 levels so we may have good bullish for the next days. If the price will cross 1.2988 support level - bearish sideway market condition may be continuing. 

Alain Verleyen
Moderator
31605
Alain Verleyen  
newdigital:
...

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for the next week)

2013-04-29 12:30 GMT | [USD - PCE core]

2013-04-29 14:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales] 

2013-04-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]  

2013-05-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

2013-05-01 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate

2013-05-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls

...
Do you mean EURUSD, not ?
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  
Not, USD - news event for the US (country). USD high impacted news events are affected on EUR, GBPUSD and JPY.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  
Yes, I see (it should be EURUSD instead of GBPUSD) - my mistake. I corrected it. Thanks for informing.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  

This is intra-day situation: breakout - price is crossing Ichimoku cloud but on open bar only for now. If price will cross the last border of the cloud (Sinkou Span B line) so we will have reversal to bullish.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.29

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd h4

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.29, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  

This is 1st of May today (just for information :) ) - Bank Holiday for CHF, French Bank Holiday, German Bank Holiday and Italian Bank Holiday.

High impacted news events for today are the following: 

Alain Verleyen
Moderator
31605
Alain Verleyen  
newdigital:

This is 1st of May today (just for information :) ) - Bank Holiday for CHF, French Bank Holiday, German Bank Holiday and Italian Bank Holiday.

High impacted news events for today are the following: 

Hi,

What do you mean by high impacted ? Is this news have impact on all currency pairs, or only one with USD ?

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  
Usually - high impacted new events for USD are affected on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY. So, the users (who are trading those pairs) should be careful in trading during this time. Some traders are closing all open trades 3 or 5 minutes before high impacted news event, some traders are trading the new events.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  

Do you see the header of this thread? So, for now - the situation  was changed up to Ranging under Bearish:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2013.05.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd d1 ranging

EURUSD, D1, 2013.05.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
95207
Sergey Golubev  

So, we came to the next week with ranging market condition for EURUSD (i am talking about D1 timeframe) - just look at this screenshot:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2013.05.03

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

ranging

EURUSD, D1, 2013.05.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Why ranging? Look at AbsoluteStrength indicator (from CodeBase here) - it is buy condition on the same with sell condition. Do you remember MACD with main line and signal line? So, this AbsoluteStrength indicator is having 2 of them: main/signal line for sell condition, and main/signal line for buy condition. If those 2 lines are showing the trend (both together) - it is ranging.

 

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