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EURUSD Technical Analysis and Forecast 14.04 - 21.04 : Bear Market Rally

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  

Last week, EURUSD was on bear market rally during the breakout of 1.3036. This market rally as secondary trend was stopped below level of 1.3126 and below Ichimoku cloud which is indicating the bearish market condition as a primary trend.

Tenkan line is started to be crossed with Kijun on open D1 bar for possible continuation of this rally but Chinkou Span line is near the price for possible correction within secondary trend. Thus, I am expecting for EURUSD to be in ranging market condition between 1.2900 and 1.3308

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price crossing 1.3138 resistance with profit level of 1.3230 and initial stop as 1.2900
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price crossing 1.3036 support with profit level of 1.2940 and stop loss as 1.3230
  • Trading Summary: risky

UPCOMING EVENTS

2013-04-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Gross Domestic Product

2013-04-16 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment]  

2013-04-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index

2013-04-16 13:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] 

2013-04-19 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German Producer Price Index

 

 

 

ResitanceSupport
1.31261.3090
 1.3138  1.3036 
 1.3230  1.2940 
 1.3308  1.2900 

   

SUMMARY : Bearish

TREND : Ranging 

IntraDay Analysis

Price is ranging between 1.3036 and 1.3138. Watch for breaking of those levels for posible buy or sell. Conclusion: risky. 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  

Just some interesting situation for EURUSD H2 and H4 for now where Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is crossing the price for possible breakdown.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.15

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd h4 breakdown

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, H2, 2013.04.15

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd h2 breakdown

EURUSD, H2, 2013.04.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:

Just some interesting situation for EURUSD H2 and H4 for now where Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is crossing the price for possible breakdown.


 

I call it 'breakdown in GANGNAM STYLE ' :) 

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  

Chinkou Span line is crossing the price on open bar for now and I am with +15 pips in profit for now:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, H1, 2013.04.15

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd h1

EURUSD, H1, 2013.04.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  

Breakdown is started on H4 timeframe on open bar and I am having +35 pips in profit for now:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.15

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd h4

EURUSD, H4, 2013.04.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Alain Verleyen
Moderator
33504
Alain Verleyen  

Are you trading on a real live account ?

Seems not.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  
Demo account. I am trading it just for market condition: when I am talking about sell (for example) so I am openning sell. Just to see how many pips we can get in case we will understand about market condition and will check it in every morning, as a proof that market condition knowledge = profit in trading.
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Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Environment State / Account Properties
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Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Environment State / Account Properties - Documentation on MQL5
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:
  • Recommendation for long: watch the price crossing 1.3138 resistance with profit level of 1.3230 and initial stop as 1.2900
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price crossing 1.3036 support with profit level of 1.2940 and stop loss as 1.3230
  • Trading Summary: risky 

 

Price is till ranging between 1.3138 and 1.3036/1.3004 support/resistance lines and Tenkan line still did not cross with Kijun line on close bar. Some traders (who are using trend following systems) are waiting for the signals to enter for short or long.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2013.04.16

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd d1 ranging

EURUSD, D1, 2013.04.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:

UPCOMING EVENTS

2013-04-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Gross Domestic Product

2013-04-16 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment]  

2013-04-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index

2013-04-16 13:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] 

2013-04-19 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German Producer Price Index

 

I am not sure but I think that this big price movement is because of German ZEW

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  

This is big price movement for now but I think it is related to intra-day situation connected with economic news:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H4, 2013.04.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

49 pips

GBPUSD, H4, 2013.04.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


By the way - I am having 49 pips in profit for open trade for now. 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99156
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:
  • Recommendation for long: watch the price crossing 1.3138 resistance with profit level of 1.3230 and initial stop as 1.2900
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price crossing 1.3036 support with profit level of 1.2940 and stop loss as 1.3230
  • Trading Summary: risky

Situation is changing slowly: Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price on open bar. I am in profit with 64 pips in profit for now (we can see it from the image):

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2013.04.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd d1

EURUSD, D1, 2013.04.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

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