Holy Grail? Any Comments - 8 years 587 trades no lossess on Backtest.. Pete
| Symbol | EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar) | ||||
| Period | 1 Minute (M1) 2000.12.07 00:01 - 2008.12.05 22:59 (2000.12.07 - 2008.12.06) | ||||
| Model | Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes) | ||||
| Parameters | donchianlength=12; gap=0.0004; MAfast=1; MAslow=2; MAslowest=8; closedonchian=5; take=300; stop=1000; ordersize=0.1; magic=12333; | ||||
| Bars in test | 2844410 | Ticks modelled | 17445932 | Modelling quality | 25.00% |
| Mismatched charts errors | 0 | ||||
| Initial deposit | 100000.00 | ||||
| Total net profit | 48789.80 | Gross profit | 48789.80 | Gross loss | 0.00 |
| Profit factor | Expected payoff | 83.12 | |||
| Absolute drawdown | 25109.15 | Maximal drawdown | 56134.45 (42.84%) | Relative drawdown | 42.84% (56134.45) |
| Total trades | 587 | Short positions (won %) | 0 (0.00%) | Long positions (won %) | 587 (100.00%) |
| Profit trades (% of total) | 587 (100.00%) | Loss trades (% of total) | 0 (0.00%) | ||
| Largest | profit trade | 2946.29 | loss trade | 0.00 | |
| Average | profit trade | 83.12 | loss trade | 0.00 | |
| Maximum | consecutive wins (profit in money) | 587 (48789.80) | consecutive losses (loss in money) | 0 (0.00) | |
| Maximal | consecutive profit (count of wins) | 48789.80 (587) | consecutive loss (count of losses) | 0.00 (0) | |
| Average | consecutive wins | 587 | consecutive losses | 0 | |
- £1000 - £67000 from 1/1/06 to today BUYING ONLY the eur/usd
- Experts: NirvamanImax
- What is the optimum depth of history for identifying a useful signal?
1) You are testing with too large starting capital... 48% return in 8 years is not that much if you look at it in absolute terms... you put at risk 100k and got only 48k... which makes just 6k per year... if you look for a better job you could make more money and with no risk :)
2) You keep open positions till the market turns in your favour. So far you've been lucky but with a stoploss of 1000 pips you are going to get hurt when the time comes... You'll lose about 700-800 for each losing trade... and again, on 48k it is quite relevant loss.
The question is... in the real world how much would you put at risk? 10k? 1k? ...think abt that and start backtesting with a realistic figure and in a realistic timeframe... 8 years is definitely too much, U want to see your profits growing monthly if not faster!
Cheers,
Zyp
1) You are testing with too large starting capital... 48% return in 8 years is not that much if you look at it in absolute terms... you put at risk 100k and got only 48k... which makes just 6k per year... if you look for a better job you could make more money and with no risk :)
2) You keep open positions till the market turns in your favour. So far you've been lucky but with a stoploss of 1000 pips you are going to get hurt when the time comes... You'll lose about 700-800 for each losing trade... and again, on 48k it is quite relevant loss.
The question is... in the real world how much would you put at risk? 10k? 1k? ...think abt that and start backtesting with a realistic figure and in a realistic timeframe... 8 years is definitely too much, U want to see your profits growing monthly if not faster!
Cheers,
Zyp
Thank you Zyp
I tried starting with £1000 from January 1 2006 and adjusted the parameters a bit
I can't get away with dropping the stop loss but as you will see by the trade that lost it does have an auto stop in it.
It has been through the recent massive EUR/USD and as you will see is BUY only
Any further help appreciated.
Profit £51000
| Symbol | EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar) | ||||
| Period | 1 Minute (M1) 2006.01.02 00:01 - 2008.12.05 22:59 (2006.01.01 - 2008.12.06) | ||||
| Model | Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes) | ||||
| Parameters | donchianlength=10; gap=0.0001; MAfast=1; MAslow=2; MAslowest=11; closedonchian=5; take=350; stop=1200; ordersize=0.1; magic=12333; | ||||
| Bars in test | 985799 | Ticks modelled | 6436563 | Modelling quality | 25.00% |
| Mismatched charts errors | 0 | ||||
| Initial deposit | 1000.00 | ||||
| Total net profit | 47870.90 | Gross profit | 51773.39 | Gross loss | -3902.49 |
| Profit factor | 13.27 | Expected payoff | 15.59 | ||
| Absolute drawdown | 306.11 | Maximal drawdown | 13137.08 (27.72%) | Relative drawdown | 56.34% (8302.06) |
| Total trades | 3071 | Short positions (won %) | 0 (0.00%) | Long positions (won %) | 3071 (99.97%) |
| Profit trades (% of total) | 3070 (99.97%) | Loss trades (% of total) | 1 (0.03%) | ||
| Largest | profit trade | 999.36 | loss trade | -3902.49 | |
| Average | profit trade | 16.86 | loss trade | -3902.49 | |
| Maximum | consecutive wins (profit in money) | 2924 (48338.41) | consecutive losses (loss in money) | 1 (-3902.49) | |
| Maximal | consecutive profit (count of wins) | 48338.41 (2924) | consecutive loss (count of losses) | -3902.49 (1) | |
| Average | consecutive wins | 1535 | consecutive losses | 1 | |
Thank you Zyp
I tried starting with £1000 from January 1 2006 and adjusted the parameters a bit
I can't get away with dropping the stop loss but as you will see by the trade that lost it does have an auto stop in it.
It has been through the recent massive EUR/USD and as you will see is BUY only
Any further help appreciated.
Profit £51000
| Symbol | EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar) | ||||
| Period | 1 Minute (M1) 2006.01.02 00:01 - 2008.12.05 22:59 (2006.01.01 - 2008.12.06) | ||||
| Model | Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes) | ||||
| Parameters | donchianlength=10; gap=0.0001; MAfast=1; MAslow=2; MAslowest=11; closedonchian=5; take=350; stop=1200; ordersize=0.1; magic=12333; | ||||
| Bars in test | 985799 | Ticks modelled | 6436563 | Modelling quality | 25.00% |
| Mismatched charts errors | 0 | ||||
| Initial deposit | 1000.00 | ||||
| Total net profit | 47870.90 | Gross profit | 51773.39 | Gross loss | -3902.49 |
| Profit factor | 13.27 | Expected payoff | 15.59 | ||
| Absolute drawdown | 306.11 | Maximal drawdown | 13137.08 (27.72%) | Relative drawdown | 56.34% (8302.06) |
| Total trades | 3071 | Short positions (won %) | 0 (0.00%) | Long positions (won %) | 3071 (99.97%) |
| Profit trades (% of total) | 3070 (99.97%) | Loss trades (% of total) | 1 (0.03%) | ||
| Largest | profit trade | 999.36 | loss trade | -3902.49 | |
| Average | profit trade | 16.86 | loss trade | -3902.49 | |
| Maximum | consecutive wins (profit in money) | 2924 (48338.41) | consecutive losses (loss in money) | 1 (-3902.49) | |
| Maximal | consecutive profit (count of wins) | 48338.41 (2924) | consecutive loss (count of losses) | -3902.49 (1) | |
| Average | consecutive wins | 1535 | consecutive losses | 1 | |
You will only get one chance in this world so find a micro broker 1c per pip and let it rip as you can't make money from a back test. live is the only way you will gain.
...
I can't get away with dropping the stop loss but as you will see by the trade that lost it does have an auto stop in it.
It has been through the recent massive EUR/USD and as you will see is BUY only
Any further help appreciated.
Ur work really reminds me of something I coded not long time ago... it was only BUY EA and stopploss was set fixed to 2000pips.
See the backtesting here:
https://forum.mql4.com/14532
How did it go for me? I dropped it.
But I learn something from it: a successful system MUST lose from time to time. Losing is necessary to estimate the limits of your EA and controlling the loss is one of the most powerful systems to raise up a fortune. Ur EA must deal with losses, not just avoid them. U cant avoid losses forever.
I know now U'll be wondering "what if I implement SELL in my EA?" ...ANSWER: do not even try :) It's going to be worse than now and U'll feel pretty bad about that... believe me, I've been there. U symply have to change Ur strategy, and of course implement SELL in the next EA from the very beginning.
I wish you success with your experiments, but remember:
1) stoploss
2) money management
...otherwise U r going nowhere.
Zyp (and btw, all the systems which do not implement stoploss are going to fail miserably sooner or later).
Ur work really reminds me of something I coded not long time ago... it was only BUY EA and stopploss was set fixed to 2000pips.
See the backtesting here:
https://forum.mql4.com/14532
How did it go for me? I dropped it.
But I learn something from it: a successful system MUST lose from time to time. Losing is necessary to estimate the limits of your EA and controlling the loss is one of the most powerful systems to raise up a fortune. Ur EA must deal with losses, not just avoid them. U cant avoid losses forever.
I know now U'll be wondering "what if I implement SELL in my EA?" ...ANSWER: do not even try :) It's going to be worse than now and U'll feel pretty bad about that... believe me, I've been there. U symply have to change Ur strategy, and of course implement SELL in the next EA from the very beginning.
I wish you success with your experiments, but remember:
1) stoploss
2) money management
...otherwise U r going nowhere.
Zyp (and btw, all the systems which do not implement stoploss are going to fail miserably sooner or later).
There is money management in place
The trades are automatically exited b7y the EA so in theory I could remove the stop completely
Wrong.
The EA is looking for a certain condition to close the trade... condition which may never happen and U have no clue whatsoever how much you are going to lose when U enter a trade.
Zyp
There is money management in place
Would like to see that.
Increasing the lots with some rules following the balance is something... not the money mangement I'm talking about.
Money management is knowing exactly how much you are willing to risk on every single trade and use it to maximize your profit.
None of this is covered by this forum yet so I suggest you to look somewhere else.
Zyp
Would like to see that.
Increasing the lots with some rules following the balance is something... not the money mangement I'm talking about.
Money management is knowing exactly how much you are willing to risk on every single trade and use it to maximize your profit.
None of this is covered by this forum yet so I suggest you to look somewhere else.
Zyp
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