Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD and GOLD - volatility remains high
US Dollar - "Dollar can certainly drift higher. However, there are external forces that may divert trajectory or leverage velocity. The movement of the Greenback’s largest counterparts can certainly prove strong motivation. Despite finding relief from the pressure of impending doom for Greece, the Euro has still stumbled. Should it turn to outright selling, the Dollar will likely reap much of the benefit. And, of course, if general risk trends start to flounder, the Dollar will certainly surge on the haven demand."
EURUSD - "The easing cycle in euro-area accompanied by rising interest rate expectations in the U.S. continues to cast a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, and the pair remains at risk of giving back the rebound from back in March as the fundamental developments highlight the growing divergence in monetary policy. The recent series of lower highs & lows in the exchange rate favors a further decline for the week ahead, but the lack of momentum to break the May low (1.0818) may produce a short-term correction in the euro-dollar as the pair searches for support."
GBPUSD - "The fact nonetheless remains that the GBP looks attractive versus most major counterparts as traders predict that only the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming 12 months."
GOLD - "gold has broken below key support and the technical damage done leaves prices vulnerable while below 1150. Look for interim support at 1130 early next week where the 2014 swing low converges on the lower median-line parallel extending off the June low. A rebound off this level may be on the cards, but the broader picture remains weighted to the short-side with subsequent support objectives eyed at the 1.618% extension off the 2014 highs at 1100 backed by 1044/54."
