Valeriy Brusilovskyy
- Forex-trader, Financial analyst at Cycle/Tickmill/IC Markets
- Ukrayna
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9+ yıl
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I have more than 18 years of trading experience. Except of forex trading also I worked with vanil options.
When I traded in divergences I had got 60-80% profit each year. Constantly I'm searching a new currency pairs that will be useful for my method of trading. I put currency pairs to demo-account only after their showing of good results (4-6 pips of expected value) in tester. I started to use pair in real account only after, at least, three months of successful trading (at least 3-4 pips of expected value). In the same time I don't stop to monitor the price movement of well-recommended currency pairs. Based on the results I change algorithm, time of trading and if it's necessary I change position size or even I can take of the pair from active trade.
In that moment I successfully drive a trade in six accounts.
If you are still not sure about me, please take a look on the indicators of all of my signals - https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/author/valera309
I can't wait to start working with you.
Please don't hesitate to address to me I always answer for all questions!
Sincerely yours, Valery!
When I traded in divergences I had got 60-80% profit each year. Constantly I'm searching a new currency pairs that will be useful for my method of trading. I put currency pairs to demo-account only after their showing of good results (4-6 pips of expected value) in tester. I started to use pair in real account only after, at least, three months of successful trading (at least 3-4 pips of expected value). In the same time I don't stop to monitor the price movement of well-recommended currency pairs. Based on the results I change algorithm, time of trading and if it's necessary I change position size or even I can take of the pair from active trade.
In that moment I successfully drive a trade in six accounts.
If you are still not sure about me, please take a look on the indicators of all of my signals - https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/author/valera309
I can't wait to start working with you.
Please don't hesitate to address to me I always answer for all questions!
Sincerely yours, Valery!
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
По итогам 2-х-дневного заседания Федеральная резервная система США приняла решение повысить базовую процентную ставку по федеральным фондам на 25 бп в диапазоне от 0,75% до 1%. Это стало вторым повышением ставки ФРС за последние 3 месяца...
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106
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
"Пришло время для инвесторов начать думать о длинных стратегиях по евро (EUR)", говорит Бипан Рай, старший аналитик FX в Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Риски со стороны европейских выборов завышены...
· 3
122
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, explains that even though the market is now fully prepared for a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday, it is still not pricing in three rate hikes through this year in total...
· 2
174
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
EUR/USD пробила 1.0650 на фоне разговоров о повышении ставки ЕЦБ
Евро укрепился после того, как Blomberg сообщил, что Управляющий Совет ЕЦБ обсуждал возможность повышения ставки до сворачивания программы QE. Пара пробила 1.0650 и достигла 1.0670, отметив максимальный за 3 недели уровень.
Пара удерживается вблизи дневных максимумов, а евро сохраняет сильный бычий настрой на фоне консолидации над важным краткосрочным сопротивлением вблизи 1.0630, которое сдерживало быков в течение последних 2-х недель.
Сегодня пара выросла более чем на 80 пунктов, нацелившись на максимальный с 16 февраля уровень закрытия. Пара совершила ралли несмотря на сильные данные NFP США.
Важные уровни по EUR/USD
Уровни сопротивления располагаются на 1.0680 (максимум 16 февраля), 1.0720 (максимум 17 января) и на 1.0775 (максимум 24 января). Уровни поддержки находятся на 1.0650, 1.0630 и 1.0600 (20-часовая скользящая средняя).
Евро укрепился после того, как Blomberg сообщил, что Управляющий Совет ЕЦБ обсуждал возможность повышения ставки до сворачивания программы QE. Пара пробила 1.0650 и достигла 1.0670, отметив максимальный за 3 недели уровень.
Пара удерживается вблизи дневных максимумов, а евро сохраняет сильный бычий настрой на фоне консолидации над важным краткосрочным сопротивлением вблизи 1.0630, которое сдерживало быков в течение последних 2-х недель.
Сегодня пара выросла более чем на 80 пунктов, нацелившись на максимальный с 16 февраля уровень закрытия. Пара совершила ралли несмотря на сильные данные NFP США.
Важные уровни по EUR/USD
Уровни сопротивления располагаются на 1.0680 (максимум 16 февраля), 1.0720 (максимум 17 января) и на 1.0775 (максимум 24 января). Уровни поддержки находятся на 1.0650, 1.0630 и 1.0600 (20-часовая скользящая средняя).
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
The set of strong non-farm payroll data from US should have finalized the case for Fed to hike interest rate this week. Dollar was indeed given a boost over last week and ended strongly...
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188
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Бабочка Бабочка – это разворотная фигура, позволяющая входить в рынок на крупных экстремумах в рамках выбранного таймфрейма. В подобие остальным фигурам, бабочка имеет две разновидности – бычью и медвежью. Это один из самых популярных гармонических паттернов...
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1878
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Здравствуйте, уважаемые друзья форекс трейдеры! Многие из вас слышали о паттернах Гартли: бабочка, краб, летучая мышь, три движения, акула, шифр, а также видели и использовали различные технические индикаторы по их поиску на графиках...
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2259
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Доллар восстановил позиции против всех своих основных валютных соперников в ходе последних нескольких часов, а EUR/USD отправилась в область свежих 4-дневных минимумов в районе 1.0529, где сейчас и торгуется. На этой неделе пара продолжила снижаться...
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122
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
According to Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, headline inflation has jumped sharply to surpass the ECB’s medium-term target for the first time since Jan-2013 which may be generating some thoughts of a less dovish ECB statement on Thursday...
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159
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
The markets trade in mild risk aversion today and the sentiments sent Yen broadly higher. Meanwhile, Dollar regains some ground from Friday's profit taking pull back. The greenback stays supported by firm expectation of a March Fed hike...
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103
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
The U.S. dollar closed on Friday on a weaker note despite the markets showing an increased probability for a rate hike in March. The economic calendar today is light with no major releases lined up. So far, Australia's retail sales figures showed a 0...
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102
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
European Commission Offers 5 Scenarios
Later this month, Europe celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Economic Community. Very near to the anniversary, which was not one of the original members,the UK will likely begin the process that will lead to its exit. This, coupled with some reluctance of some new members in Eastern and Central Europe to embrace liberal values of the west, and the ongoing economic adjustment in the EMU has posed an existential crisis for European integration.
The European Commission offered a white paper that suggests five future scenarios for the future of Europe. It will be a discussion point in the coming months, with Juncker's State of the Union speech in September will likely focus on it before preliminary conclusions are made at the heads of state summit at the end of the year.
This note is to present the scenarios so that the general framework can be appreciated by investors. The scenarios address the question of what Europe may look like in 2025. They are designed to cover a range of possibilities. They are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive.
1. Carrying on: It is not simply the status quo but assumes the implementation of reform agendas. Free movement of people remains, though security is reinforced. Some border frictions remain.
2. Single Market: EU members do not agree on new policy areas to integrate. The focus is on the single market. Free-movement of people becomes more difficult. This returns the EU to its roots.
3. Multi-Speed: The white paper does not use the multi-speed terminology but discusses "coalitions of the willing" that could pursue greater integration on a range of specific policy areas, such as defense, internal security, or social issues. This is a recognition of different appetites for integration.
4. Narrower Focus: The Commission calls this scenario "Doing Less More Efficiently." Rather than a broad range of activities, the EU narrows its focus to policy areas where it is perceived to add value. This is a smaller form of integration and represents a recognition that some limit has been reached. It is consistent with a strengthening of national identities.
5. Enhanced Integration: More power, resources, and decision-making are shared. Deliberation process is expedited and decisions on the European level are made more quickly and implemented by national authorities.
These scenarios are meant to launch the year-long discussion of the future of the European project. The EC will issue several more discussion (reflection) papers. Some European officials were wary of the white paper ahead of the spate of elections beginning with the Dutch in a couple of weeks. It is possible, and we consider likely, that populist-nationalist forces are not part of the next governments in the Netherlands, France or Germany. The power of national identities should not be under-estimated, and its influence on policy debates may exceed the electoral success.
Populism-nationalism does not appear to be reducible to pure macroeconomic variables. Where it has enjoyed initial success has mostly been in economies that are doing relatively better like Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. The US and UK emerged from the Great Financial Crisis better than most other high income countries. The US and UK economies were larger than ever, and by at least conventional measures, the labor market was well on its way to full employment.
Many had worried that the UK decision to leave the EU was going to lower the barrier to exit and encourage other countries to leave. The elections are still ahead of us, but the opinion polls suggest that to the contrary, support for the EU has risen. The project has been attacked, and it is as if the wagons are circling. Just like the desire for national identity cannot be reduced to a macroeconomic variable, European integration is not simply about economic. Since the Greek crisis first surfaced in 2010, the lack of appreciating the non-economic considerations, especially political will, saw pessimism and cynicism cloud investment decision and led to speculation of the collapse of EMU and the EU.
Later this month, Europe celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Economic Community. Very near to the anniversary, which was not one of the original members,the UK will likely begin the process that will lead to its exit. This, coupled with some reluctance of some new members in Eastern and Central Europe to embrace liberal values of the west, and the ongoing economic adjustment in the EMU has posed an existential crisis for European integration.
The European Commission offered a white paper that suggests five future scenarios for the future of Europe. It will be a discussion point in the coming months, with Juncker's State of the Union speech in September will likely focus on it before preliminary conclusions are made at the heads of state summit at the end of the year.
This note is to present the scenarios so that the general framework can be appreciated by investors. The scenarios address the question of what Europe may look like in 2025. They are designed to cover a range of possibilities. They are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive.
1. Carrying on: It is not simply the status quo but assumes the implementation of reform agendas. Free movement of people remains, though security is reinforced. Some border frictions remain.
2. Single Market: EU members do not agree on new policy areas to integrate. The focus is on the single market. Free-movement of people becomes more difficult. This returns the EU to its roots.
3. Multi-Speed: The white paper does not use the multi-speed terminology but discusses "coalitions of the willing" that could pursue greater integration on a range of specific policy areas, such as defense, internal security, or social issues. This is a recognition of different appetites for integration.
4. Narrower Focus: The Commission calls this scenario "Doing Less More Efficiently." Rather than a broad range of activities, the EU narrows its focus to policy areas where it is perceived to add value. This is a smaller form of integration and represents a recognition that some limit has been reached. It is consistent with a strengthening of national identities.
5. Enhanced Integration: More power, resources, and decision-making are shared. Deliberation process is expedited and decisions on the European level are made more quickly and implemented by national authorities.
These scenarios are meant to launch the year-long discussion of the future of the European project. The EC will issue several more discussion (reflection) papers. Some European officials were wary of the white paper ahead of the spate of elections beginning with the Dutch in a couple of weeks. It is possible, and we consider likely, that populist-nationalist forces are not part of the next governments in the Netherlands, France or Germany. The power of national identities should not be under-estimated, and its influence on policy debates may exceed the electoral success.
Populism-nationalism does not appear to be reducible to pure macroeconomic variables. Where it has enjoyed initial success has mostly been in economies that are doing relatively better like Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. The US and UK emerged from the Great Financial Crisis better than most other high income countries. The US and UK economies were larger than ever, and by at least conventional measures, the labor market was well on its way to full employment.
Many had worried that the UK decision to leave the EU was going to lower the barrier to exit and encourage other countries to leave. The elections are still ahead of us, but the opinion polls suggest that to the contrary, support for the EU has risen. The project has been attacked, and it is as if the wagons are circling. Just like the desire for national identity cannot be reduced to a macroeconomic variable, European integration is not simply about economic. Since the Greek crisis first surfaced in 2010, the lack of appreciating the non-economic considerations, especially political will, saw pessimism and cynicism cloud investment decision and led to speculation of the collapse of EMU and the EU.
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Саудовская Аравия по-прежнему старается больше всех - BBG
По информации Bloomberg, лидером среди картеля ОПЕК, исполняющим условия договоренностей в полной мере, является Саудовская Аравия.
• Саудовская Аравия по-прежнему прилагает больше всех усилий к исполнению венских договоренностей по снижению объемов нефтедобычи
• В феврале Эр-Рияд снизил объемы нефтедобычи на 90 тыс. барр. в сутки до 9.78 млн барр.
• Добыча нефти ОПЕК снизилась до 32.17 млн барр. в сутки в феврале, то есть на 65 тыс. барр в сутки с января
• Добычу нефти увеличили Иран, Нигерия и Ливии (на особых условия в рамках соглашения)
• Общий объем добычи нефти ОПЕК находится на 415 тыс. барр. в день выше целевых уровней соглашения, заключенного 30 ноября
• В целом, объем добываемой картелем нефти составляет только 70% от общего необходимого снижения для достижения баланса на рынке
По информации Bloomberg, лидером среди картеля ОПЕК, исполняющим условия договоренностей в полной мере, является Саудовская Аравия.
• Саудовская Аравия по-прежнему прилагает больше всех усилий к исполнению венских договоренностей по снижению объемов нефтедобычи
• В феврале Эр-Рияд снизил объемы нефтедобычи на 90 тыс. барр. в сутки до 9.78 млн барр.
• Добыча нефти ОПЕК снизилась до 32.17 млн барр. в сутки в феврале, то есть на 65 тыс. барр в сутки с января
• Добычу нефти увеличили Иран, Нигерия и Ливии (на особых условия в рамках соглашения)
• Общий объем добычи нефти ОПЕК находится на 415 тыс. барр. в день выше целевых уровней соглашения, заключенного 30 ноября
• В целом, объем добываемой картелем нефти составляет только 70% от общего необходимого снижения для достижения баланса на рынке
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Dollar continues recent rise on rate hike expectation: Mar 03, 2017
Dollar continues recent rise on rate hike expectation
The greenback continued its recent winning streak and rose against majority of its peers on Thursday after comments from Federal Reserve official Lael Brainard increased expectations of a rate hike in March.
"We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said. She added "Assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path."
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rose to 114.16 at Asian open on Brainard's comments and continued to trade with a firm bias. Intra-day ascent accelerated in Europe and rose to 114.54 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before stabilising, price later hit session highs of 114.59.
The single currency dropped to 1.0529 at Asian open and continued to ratchet lower to 1.0522 at European open before recovering. However, euro met renewed selling at 1.0546 and dropped to 1.0499 in New York morning before staging a recovery to 1.0528 but only to weaken to session lows of 1.0496 in New York afternoon.
The British pound dropped to 1.2262 at Asian open and continued to remain under pressure in Asia and Europe and fell marginally to an intra-day low at 1.2259 in New York morning before staging a rebound, price later weakened to a 6-week bottom of 1.2243.
In other news, Fed's Powell said 'wants to get interest rates well above 0 b4 reducing balance sheet; case for Mar rate hike has come together; fiscal policy likely to be supportive of near term economic growth, not incorporated into his own forecast; we're getting very close to 2% inflation target; rate hike in Mar is on the table for discussion.'
On the data front, The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending February 25 declined by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 from the previous week's total of 242,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 1,000 to 243,000 last week.
Dollar continues recent rise on rate hike expectation
The greenback continued its recent winning streak and rose against majority of its peers on Thursday after comments from Federal Reserve official Lael Brainard increased expectations of a rate hike in March.
"We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said. She added "Assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path."
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rose to 114.16 at Asian open on Brainard's comments and continued to trade with a firm bias. Intra-day ascent accelerated in Europe and rose to 114.54 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before stabilising, price later hit session highs of 114.59.
The single currency dropped to 1.0529 at Asian open and continued to ratchet lower to 1.0522 at European open before recovering. However, euro met renewed selling at 1.0546 and dropped to 1.0499 in New York morning before staging a recovery to 1.0528 but only to weaken to session lows of 1.0496 in New York afternoon.
The British pound dropped to 1.2262 at Asian open and continued to remain under pressure in Asia and Europe and fell marginally to an intra-day low at 1.2259 in New York morning before staging a rebound, price later weakened to a 6-week bottom of 1.2243.
In other news, Fed's Powell said 'wants to get interest rates well above 0 b4 reducing balance sheet; case for Mar rate hike has come together; fiscal policy likely to be supportive of near term economic growth, not incorporated into his own forecast; we're getting very close to 2% inflation target; rate hike in Mar is on the table for discussion.'
On the data front, The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending February 25 declined by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 from the previous week's total of 242,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 1,000 to 243,000 last week.
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
Каждый год профессор Макс Базерман продает студентам MBA из Harvard Business School двадцатидолларовую купюру намного выше номинала. Его рекорд – продажа $20 за $204. А делает он это следующим образом...
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280
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Valeriy Brusilovskyy
EUR/USD: снизилась в район 1.0520
Снижение доллара позволило EUR/USD вырасти в район 1.0550 в ходе азиатской сессии, однако паре не хватило импульса, и она снизилась в район 1.0520. Сейчас пара растет впервые за 3 сессии, нащупав достойную поддержку чуть ниже 1.0500.
Спрос на доллар сохраняется, несмотря не небольшое снижение сегодня, на фоне растущих надежд на повышение ставки в марте. А снижение евро компенсирует рост доходности облигаций Германии.
Ставки на фьючерсы по федеральным фондам на CME закладывают 76% вероятность повышения ставки ФРС в марте.
Последние несколько недель на евро оказывали давление позитивные данные американской статистики, Трампономика, а также неопределенность в отношении выборов во Франции.
Сегодня на EUR/USD могут оказать краткосрочное влияние данные еврозоны по PMI в секторе услуг за февраль и отчет по розничным продажам региона, что, однако, маловероятно, потому что все внимание будет приковано к доллару в преддверии отчета по PMI в секторе услуг ISM США и выступлений представителей ФРС Эванса (голосует, голубь), Лэкера (голосует в 2018, ястреб), Пауэлла (постоянно голосует, центрист), Фишера (постоянно голосует, центрист) и выступление главы регулятора Джанет Йеллен.
Важные уровни по EUR/USD
На момент написания пара торговалась с повышением на 0.08% вблизи 1.0514. Прорыв 1.0492 (минимум 2 марта и 22 февраля) нацелит пару на 1.0452 (минимум 11 января), а затем в район 1.0339 (минимум 3 января 2017). Ближайшее сопротивление отмечено в районе 1.0552 (максимум 2 марта), далее в районе 1.0595 (55-дневная sma) и затем вблизи 1.0604 (20-дневная sma).
Снижение доллара позволило EUR/USD вырасти в район 1.0550 в ходе азиатской сессии, однако паре не хватило импульса, и она снизилась в район 1.0520. Сейчас пара растет впервые за 3 сессии, нащупав достойную поддержку чуть ниже 1.0500.
Спрос на доллар сохраняется, несмотря не небольшое снижение сегодня, на фоне растущих надежд на повышение ставки в марте. А снижение евро компенсирует рост доходности облигаций Германии.
Ставки на фьючерсы по федеральным фондам на CME закладывают 76% вероятность повышения ставки ФРС в марте.
Последние несколько недель на евро оказывали давление позитивные данные американской статистики, Трампономика, а также неопределенность в отношении выборов во Франции.
Сегодня на EUR/USD могут оказать краткосрочное влияние данные еврозоны по PMI в секторе услуг за февраль и отчет по розничным продажам региона, что, однако, маловероятно, потому что все внимание будет приковано к доллару в преддверии отчета по PMI в секторе услуг ISM США и выступлений представителей ФРС Эванса (голосует, голубь), Лэкера (голосует в 2018, ястреб), Пауэлла (постоянно голосует, центрист), Фишера (постоянно голосует, центрист) и выступление главы регулятора Джанет Йеллен.
Важные уровни по EUR/USD
На момент написания пара торговалась с повышением на 0.08% вблизи 1.0514. Прорыв 1.0492 (минимум 2 марта и 22 февраля) нацелит пару на 1.0452 (минимум 11 января), а затем в район 1.0339 (минимум 3 января 2017). Ближайшее сопротивление отмечено в районе 1.0552 (максимум 2 марта), далее в районе 1.0595 (55-дневная sma) и затем вблизи 1.0604 (20-дневная sma).
· 1
Valeriy Brusilovskyy
The greenback continues to advance, with the key US Dollar Index hovering near seven-week tops amid growing consensus that the Federal Reserve would seriously consider raising interest rates at its March meeting. In addition, Trump-reflation trade seems to have made a comeback, amid renewed hopes for a massive infrastructure spending and tax cuts following Tuesday's address to the Congress, further supported the greenback's strong performance.
On economic data front, the release of US ISM manufacturing PMI topped estimates and rose to 57.5 in February, up from 56 recorded in January. Today's US economic docket features the usual release of initial weekly jobless claims, which is unlikely to distort the strong bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback.
GBP/USD
Apart from the broad based US Dollar strength, Wednesday's disappointing release of UK manufacturing PMI dragged the pair below 1.2300 handle, to six-week lows. The pair traded with bearish bias for the fifth consecutive session as traders now look forward to the release of UK construction PMI print, for some immediate respite during European trading session.
Technically, the pair is hovering around its immediate support near 1.2360-50 region, marking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1987-1.2706 up-swing. Hence, a follow through weakness below this level would confirm extension of the pair’s near-term downward trajectory, initially towards 1.2215-10 intermediate support and eventually towards 1.2155-50 horizontal support.
On the flip side, any recovery attempts above 1.2300 round figure mark might now confront resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2345 level. Although momentum above 1.2345 level could get extended but should now be capped at an important support break-point, now turned strong resistance near 1.2380-85 zone.
GBPUSD
EUR/USD
The pair has already confirmed break-down through a bearish continuation chart pattern, Flag, but is finding some support near 1.0515 region, nearing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0341-1.0829 recent up-move. Thus, today's release of flash Euro-zone CPI print now becomes a key determinant to see if the pair continues to hold this immediate support or extend the near-term bearish break-down momentum.
A convincing drop below 1.0515 level should accelerate the slide towards mid-1.0400s, en-route its next major support near 1.0400-1.0390 region. A follow through selling pressure below the 1.0400 handle would open room for extension of the pair’s downward trajectory further towards multi-year lows support near 1.0340 level before eventually dropping towards 1.0240 support, representing 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of 1.1300-1.0340 downslide and subsequent retracement.
Alternatively, rebound from current support area, leading to a subsequent recovery above mid-1.0500s could get extended towards 1.0600 round figure mark. This 1.0600 handle should now restrict any near-term recovery and only a sustained move above the 1.0600 handle would negate any near-term bearish bias.
On economic data front, the release of US ISM manufacturing PMI topped estimates and rose to 57.5 in February, up from 56 recorded in January. Today's US economic docket features the usual release of initial weekly jobless claims, which is unlikely to distort the strong bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback.
GBP/USD
Apart from the broad based US Dollar strength, Wednesday's disappointing release of UK manufacturing PMI dragged the pair below 1.2300 handle, to six-week lows. The pair traded with bearish bias for the fifth consecutive session as traders now look forward to the release of UK construction PMI print, for some immediate respite during European trading session.
Technically, the pair is hovering around its immediate support near 1.2360-50 region, marking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1987-1.2706 up-swing. Hence, a follow through weakness below this level would confirm extension of the pair’s near-term downward trajectory, initially towards 1.2215-10 intermediate support and eventually towards 1.2155-50 horizontal support.
On the flip side, any recovery attempts above 1.2300 round figure mark might now confront resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2345 level. Although momentum above 1.2345 level could get extended but should now be capped at an important support break-point, now turned strong resistance near 1.2380-85 zone.
GBPUSD
EUR/USD
The pair has already confirmed break-down through a bearish continuation chart pattern, Flag, but is finding some support near 1.0515 region, nearing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0341-1.0829 recent up-move. Thus, today's release of flash Euro-zone CPI print now becomes a key determinant to see if the pair continues to hold this immediate support or extend the near-term bearish break-down momentum.
A convincing drop below 1.0515 level should accelerate the slide towards mid-1.0400s, en-route its next major support near 1.0400-1.0390 region. A follow through selling pressure below the 1.0400 handle would open room for extension of the pair’s downward trajectory further towards multi-year lows support near 1.0340 level before eventually dropping towards 1.0240 support, representing 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of 1.1300-1.0340 downslide and subsequent retracement.
Alternatively, rebound from current support area, leading to a subsequent recovery above mid-1.0500s could get extended towards 1.0600 round figure mark. This 1.0600 handle should now restrict any near-term recovery and only a sustained move above the 1.0600 handle would negate any near-term bearish bias.