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Percentile of Historical Volatility Correlation

Percentile of Historical Volatility and Correlation Coefficient shows if the asset is cheap or expensive based on the volatility. It is used to determine a good entry point. It has two indicators built in: Historical Volatility is ranked percentile wise and its correlation to price action which gives an indication of the direction of a possible future move. Together the both indicators can give good entries and direction.

 

Historical Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an asset over a given period (Sample Size Historical Volatility). In this indicator the volatility model is calculated as the standard deviation of returns. Weighted with percentile with the given period (Sample Size Percentile). It shows the percentage of candles over the last selected period (Sample Size Percentile) where Historic Volatility was traded below the current level.

That means if PHV (Percentile of Historical Volatility) is at 5%, it was traded only 5% of the time (within percentile period) below that level. If PHV is above 80% it indicates, that historical volatility is higher than usual. So, a strategy could be, enter at a very low PHV, as it will likely expand and a bigger move will happen.

The indicator values are displayed as Columns and range from 0 to 100 [%]. It is NOT a directional indicator, only together with Correlation it is possible to determine direction.

 

Correlation Coefficient is shown in the panel below the PHV to correlate the non-directional indicator to price, to make it directional. Traditional Pearson Correlation is used. It is shown as line and scaled. Usually, it goes from -1 to 1, for representation it is scaled to -100 to 0 (so -50 is zero line). The correlation line is coloured from the calculated p-value, based on significance confidence level of 0.05 (5%). If the correlation line turns “green” is shows significant positive correlation of PHV to price. If it turns “red” significant negative correlation is determined.

 

Example Strategies:

• PHV rising (percentile of historical volatility increasing) AND significant positive correlation = possible larger movement in price action to the upside expected (LONG)

• PHV rising (percentile of historical volatility increasing) AND significant negative correlation = possible larger movement in price action to the downside expected (SHORT)

• PHV falling (percentile of historical volatility decreasing) AND negative correlation = price will likely move slowly up (LONG)

• PHV falling (percentile of historical volatility decreasing) AND positive correlation = price will likely move slowly down (SHORT)

 

The Input Settings:

Sample Size Historical Volatility: Default 10, length of periods back to calculated historical volatility.

Sample Size Percentile: Default 100 (Recommendation use power of Sample Size Historical Volatility), length of periods back to calculated percentile of historical volatility.

Sample Size Correlation: Default 10, length of periods back to calculated correlation of PHV and Price

 

 

Remark: Indicator is provided for statistical analysis and showing probabilities only and should not be construed as financial advice.


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Тем, кто изучил книги Билла Вильямса "Новые измерения в биржевой торговле" и "Торговый Хаос (второе издание)" и пробовал торговать по этим методикам, становится ясно, что стандартного набора индикаторов недостаточно для полноценной работы. Индикатор  Trading Chaos Map  рисует "карту рынка", позволяя вам видеть графики так же, как автор трилогии. В параметрах предусмотрены опции включения и отключения каждого сигнала. Вы можете использовать ту или иную методику, либо использовать их вместе. Может
Golden Gate Algo MT5
James David Lane
4 (6)
CHRISTMAS İÇİN %40 İNDİRİM! 1 OCAK'TA FİYATI $250'YE YÜKSELECEK! GoldenGate Entries Tanıtımı: Keskin Kenarlı Bir Ticaret Çözümü! GoldenGate Entries (GGE) ile ticarette devrim niteliğinde bir yaklaşım keşfedin. GGE, ticaret deneyiminizi yükseltmek amacıyla tasarlanmış gelişmiş bir gösterge olup kullanıcılara ticaret kararlarında hassasiyet ve güven sağlamak için kapsamlı bir özellik seti sunar. Çiftler: Herhangi biri (FX - Emtia - Hisse Senetleri - Hisse Senetleri - Kripto) Zaman Çerçeve
Golden Spikes Detector
Batsirayi L Marango
5 (1)
Golden Spikes Detector This indicator is based on an advanced strategy primarily for trading spikes on Boom and Crash Indices. Complex algorithms were implemented to detect high probability entries only. It alerts on potential Buy and Sell entries. To trade spikes on the Deriv or Binary broker, only take Buy Boom and Sell Cash alerts. It was optimised to be loaded on 5-minute timeframe although multiple timeframe analysis is done in the background. Features ·             Desktop pop up and sound
Royal Wave Pro M5
Vahidreza Heidar Gholami
3.5 (4)
Royal Wave is a Trend-Power oscillator which has been programmed to locate and signal low-risk entry and exit zones. Its core algorithm statistically analyzes the market and generates trading signals for overbought, oversold and low volatile areas. By using a well-designed alerting system, this indicator makes it easier to make proper decisions regarding where to enter and where to exit trades. Features Trend-Power Algorithm Low risk Entry Zones and Exit Zones Predictions for Overbought and Over
If you want to find good trading opportunities, then you must trade near the Trend Line. This allows you to have a tighter         stop loss   on your trades — which improves your       risk to reward . But that’s not all… Because if you combine Trend Line with Support and Resistance, that’s where you find the best trading opportunities. Now you might wonder: “So when do I enter a trade?” Well, you can use reversal     candlestick patterns   (like the   Hammer, Bullish Engulfing, etc.) as your e
TrendMaestro5
Stefano Frisetti
note: this indicator is for METATRADER4, if you want the version for METATRADER5 this is the link:  https://www.mql5.com/it/market/product/108106 TRENDMAESTRO ver 2.4 TRENDMAESTRO recognizes a new TREND in the bud, he never makes mistakes. The certainty of identifying a new TREND is priceless. DESCRIPTION TRENDMAESTRO identifies a new TREND in the bud, this indicator examines the volatility, volumes and momentum to identify the moment in which there is an explosion of one or more of these data a
TPA True Price Action indicator reveals the true price action of the market makers through 100% non-repainting signals strictly at the close of a candle! TPA shows entries and re-entries, every time the bulls are definitely stronger than the bears and vice versa. Not to confuse with red/green candles. The shift of power gets confirmed at the earliest stage and is ONE exit strategy of several. There are available now two free parts of the TPA User Guide for our customers. The first "The Basics"
Gann Kare Göstergesi, W.D. Gann tarafından yazılan "Piyasa Tahminleri için Matematiksel Formül" makalesine dayalı güçlü bir piyasa analizi aracıdır. Bu araç, piyasa analizi için matematiksel ve Gann teorilerini kullanarak hassas analizler gerçekleştirir. 144, 90, 52 karelerini ve ayrıca 9 karesini kullanır. Ayrıca, ın 9 karesi ve bu kareyle ilişkili kanallar ve yıldız modelleri için yöntemini içerir. Kullanıcı Kılavuzu ve Uygulama: Bu göstergeleri kullanmadan önce, kullanıcı kılavuzunu okumanız
Swing Trading is the first indicator designed to detect swings in the direction of the trend and possible reversal swings. It uses the baseline swing trading approach, widely described in trading literature. The indicator studies several price and time vectors to track the aggregate trend direction and detects situations in which the market is oversold or overbought and ready to correct. [ Installation Guide | Update Guide | Troubleshooting | FAQ | All Products ] Profit for market swings with
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The indicator ‘Probability Range Bands’ gives a prediction of the amount, how much the asset is moving from its current price. The range bands give probabilities, that the candle close will not exceed this certain price level. It is also called the expected move for the current candle close.   This Indicator is based on statistical methods, probabilities and volatility. Asset price is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. Therefore, log returns are used in this indicator to determine the
Drift
Florian Nuebling
This Oscillator describes the drift of an asset, as part of the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). As a data basis the mean reverting log returns of the asset price is considered. It gives the percentile of drift directional. For instance, a value of 0.05 means a drift of 5%, based on the selected sample size. If the value is positive, drift to higher asset values is determined.  This indicator should be used in confluence with other indicators based on volatility, probability and statistics. L
FREE
This z-score indicator shows the correct z-score of an asset, as it uses the normalized price data for calculation, which is the only correct way. Z-score is only applicable for normal distributed data, therefore not the actual price is considered, but the normalised returns, which were assumed to follow a normal distribution. Returns are mean reverting and assumed to follow a normal distribution, therefore z-score calculation of returns is more reliable than z-score on price, as price is NOT m
The RSI2.0 indicator uses normalized price data and signal processing steps to get a normal distributed oscillator with no skew (mean is zero). Therefore, it can give much better reads than the traditional RSI.   Areas/Levels of reversal: Overbought or oversold levels from traditional RSI have no statistical significance, therefore the standard deviation bands are implemented here, which can be used in similar way as possible reversal points.   Divergence: As the indicator is nearly normal dist
The Returns Momentum Oscillator (RMO) shows the difference of exponentially weighted volatility. It is used to find market tops and bottoms. Volatility comes in waves, and as the Returns often front run price action it gives directional prediction of market movement.   The Oscillator signal is RMSed (root mean squared) to make the distribution closer to Gaussian distribution. While the traditional RSI indicators are often stuck in overbought or oversold areas for a long time, RMSing of the sign
Bollinger Bands based on Returns   This indicator characterizes the price and volatility by providing a channel/band of standard deviations like the Bollinger Bands. In contrary to standard Bollinger Bands which uses price directly, this indicator uses returns due to normalization.   The standard Bollinger Bands based on price directly, were one of the first quant or statistical methods for retail traders available. The issue with these bands, standard deviations can only be calculated, if the u
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