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Şartname
Hi, I need someone that is great with math and statistics.
The output will be a MT4 or MT5 backtest result + programm with inputs and outputs.
For any currency pair (my list has 24 pairs):
I) Check over the past 5-10 years years whenever RSI > 70 (and RSI > 75 and RSI >80), how many pips did we run higher to the upside, before we got AT LEAST a 1x ADR move short. The same for a 0.5x ADR and 2.0 ADR move short.
II) Check over the past 5-10 years whenever RSI < 30 (and RSI < 25 and RSI < 20), how many pips did we run lower to the downside, before we got AT LEAST a 1 ADR move long. The same for a 0.5 and 2x ADR move long.
In the end, I want to have a programm in which I can input the
1) Currency pair (for example EUR/USD)
2) Timeframe (for example D1, H4 or H1)
3) RSI level (>70, >30 etc)
.... and I want to see the following output:
1) Answer to the scenarios I) and II) explained above. This could be something like a distibution i.e. "In 90% of the cases, EUR/USD ran max. 200 Pips higher when RSI > 70, before it dropped at least 1 ADR, 0.5 ADR, 2 ADR etc"
--> Something like: In 10-20% of the cases, EUR/USD ran 20 Pips higher before it dropped 1 ADR
--> 30 - 50% of the cases it run X pips higher before it dropped 1 ADR
--> 90% of the cases .....
3) Finally (this might be the final step): I want to see level on my chart that calculate the probability of a 1 ADR move to the downside when RSI > 70 and an 1 ADR move to the upside when RSI<30. Same for the probability of a 0,5 ADR move.
The goal here is to take short positions when RSI > 70 and longs when RSI <30. If it runs against me, I want to know, how long it could run against me, until we get at least a 1 ADR corrections. This way I can keep my average price within the 1 ADR or 0.5 ADR pip range.
I AM NOT BASING MY trading solely on the outcome of this backtest, but it will help in determining my risk and when to take positions / where to take SLs, TPs etc.
Thank you.