Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Perfil

BTCUSD: Why we bought at 17500 range, and why we booked profits at 24000 range: The Reason.

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21.07.2022 | XAUUSD Next Target :1666| XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis | GOLD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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Zones mentioned in my analysis:

I expect V pattern in next 9 trading days. XAUUSD CMP $1735

D1 TF PRSR: BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP200P ( Net Average Profit):

S4 ZONE 1717 | DOWN TREND (Below 1721) : 1717/1707/1685/1666/1636 BUY LIMITS

R2 ZONE 1750| UP TREND (After 1758) : 1777/1808/1818 SELL LIMITS

Check the price mapping done on 08.07.2022 at:
https://bit.ly/08JulyPriceMappingPR

1685 AS NEXT TARGET: well highlighted in advance multiple times, was finally achieved today at 11.20 hours DXB.

Gold to hit 1685: I alerted well in advance: Read my analysis review:

Analysis: https://bit.ly/NFPJuly2022PRGoldAnalysis
Review: https://www.piyushratnu.com/piyush-ratnu-spot-gold-analysis-review-july-2022/

20.07.2022 | XAUUSD Trading Scenario and Targets| XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis | GOLD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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19.07.2022 | XAUUSD Trading Scenarios| XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis | GOLD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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++ ECB New Bond Tool & Monetary Policy Changes
Tightening + YCC

++ Russia meeting with Iran and Turkey

++Draghi + UK

++ A slippage in odds of a 1% rate hike by the Fed has failed to support the gold bulls.

++ Lower consensus for S&P PMI data may bring a sell-off in the DXY

++ Higher inflation rates have weighed pressure on the margins of the companies and have impacted the earnings of the households. WORLD ECONOMICS refer: https://tradingeconomics.com/matrix | HICP: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html

++ Gold price is expected to face tremendous pressures this week as monetary policies announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will remain focused. EU Stats: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/html/index.en.html

++ The market participants are expecting a rate hike by the ECB for the first time in 11 years. Taking into account the soaring inflation rate due to higher energy bills, ECB President Christine Lagarde will announce a rate hike this time.

++The minutes from RBA remained hawkish for further guidance. Therefore, the broader environment of policy tightening by the Western leaders will keep gold prices under heavy pressure: https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2022/mr-22-20.html

++Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue with its dovish tone and will discuss measures on flushing liquidity into the economy to spurt the aggregate demand. : + JPY = - USD | Refer: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm/

++ The Services PMI is expected to display a mild correction to 52.6 against the former figure of 52.7. This will keep the DXY on the back foot and may support the gold bulls. Refer: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/ReleaseDates?language=en

XAUUSD Bearish Scenario: $1717/1666, once again?

If the bearish momentum extends, gold price may fall further towards 1666 zone (after 1721) with 1717/1700/1685/1666 as next stops, if Gold crash halts at 1717/1666 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 9 trading days.

Read my analysis here: https://bit.ly/NFPJuly2022PRGoldAnalysis

Buyers need acceptance above the convergence of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day and Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1,727. The pivot point one-day R3 at $1,735 will be the last line of defense for XAU sellers.

Alternatively, a sustained move below the powerful cluster of support levels around $1,717 will fizzle out the recovery momentum. That level is the confluence of the previous day’s high, Fibonacci 38.2% one-week and pivot point one-day R1.

The next support awaits at the intersection of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the SMA10 four-hour. The Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,707 will be next on my radar.

Post 15 July, GOLD generally rises from the lows of first two weeks of July, and same can be observed right now.

Mid June: Crash
Mid July RT Reversal
August first week crash

As per past trend mapping.

M30 H1 H4 V completed.

I had mentioned in my analysis:
I expect V pattern in next 9 trading days. XAUUSD CMP $1735

Date of Analysis 08.07.2022
Date of achievement: 13.07.2022 and 18.07.2022

Analysis accuracy: 90%

Highs achieved: 1745/1719
Lows achieved: 1707/1697

Zones mentioned in my analysis:

I expect V pattern in next 9 trading days. XAUUSD CMP $1735

D1 TF PRSR: BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP200P ( Net Average Profit):

S4 ZONE 1717 | DOWN TREND (Below 1721) : 1717/1707/1685/1666/1636 BUY LIMITS

R2 ZONE 1750| UP TREND (After 1758) : 1777/1808/1818 SELL LIMITS

Check the price mapping done on 08.07.2022 at:
https://bit.ly/08JulyPriceMappingPR

Tracer Algo stetting:
PRSR zone D1 | C/R RT zones D1 TF

XAUUSD Bearish Scenario: $1717/1666, once again?

If the bearish momentum extends, gold price may fall further towards 1666 zone (after 1721) with 1717/1700/1685/1666 as next stops, if Gold crash halts at 1717/1666 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 9 trading days.

Read my analysis here: https://bit.ly/NFPJuly2022PRGoldAnalysis

Summary: GOLD crashed till 1697 and reversed back to 1735/1717 zone, more than three times, giving enough space to exit in net average in the BUY positions taken below 1717.

CMP 1717

FED: 75 BP HIKE

An attempt to kill inflation or boost recession?

This is a million dollar question right now, in my view inflation will rise more to higher numbers resulting in higher rates and panic selling, though media and FED will try to highlight that the era of recession has begun.

I won't be surprised with the the repetition of the pattern observed in last two years, where in FED tried it's best to prove that inflation is temporary and not a concerning factor, however this year Mr. Powell was kind enough to accept that FED miscalculated the risks and the rising inflation in last few months, and that precautionary and necessary tools have to be exercised inorder to control the rising inflation.

A big DOWN rally in first week of August after a RT till 1735/1777 is what I expect as per market cycles and past trend. Currently GOLD is trapped in the price range of 1707-1717, a breach towards down will result in 1685/1666, a reversal will push the price to 1777, if GOLD manages to breach 1735-1745 zone before 25 July, 2022.

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11.07.2022 | XAUUSD Trading Scenarios for next 30 days| XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis |PR Gold Analysis

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13.07.2022 | Warning Sign - Open interest in Gold Futures markets went up for the third session in a row on Tuesday, this time by around 26.6K contracts, the largest single day build since February 17 according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume followed suit and rose by around 143.4k contacts | XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis |PR Gold Analysis

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11.07.2022 | H1 PRSRZ | Expected Crash RT Z | XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis |PR Gold Analysis

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11.07.2022 | Gold Futures Historical Data | XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis |PR Gold Analysis

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11.07.2022 | Metals Futures Technical Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | Commodities Analysis |PR Gold Analysis

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Analysis Review:

https://youtu.be/tdsFDOiyyzQ

As alerted on 03.06.2022: Gold target price after 1842 was 1800/1777. Today Gold touched the mark of 1800.00

Read my analysis published on 03.06.2022 here: https://bit.ly/03062022NFPAnalysisPR

LONG TERM Trading Scenario: Key POINTS

"If you can't convince them, confuse them."

That's what market makers and policy makers are doing currently. First a sequence of scary projections and impressive scary numbers to declare INFLATION was observed resulting in HVPR.

And now, the fear of Recession in addition to Inflation, to control inflation created by the market makers is on all media news portals which might result in HVPC.

What this means:

Uncertainty and Panic Buying/Selling at specific zones/ranges

Result:
High Volatility Price Rise and Crash

How to trade these patterns and cycles:

Refer Settings Manual for PRSRLVL and PRTPS algorithms
Trading Strategy: RM GR 1235 PG 8532 SM 10.33/66/99
TFH1 H4 AV extensions | RT 23.6 M5/15 | 120-240M

Key Policies to be referred:

ECB First Line of Defence
US10YT
US Monetary Policy
Week 1 ETF DS Report: WG
Chapter 2: Market Cycles
Co-relations between Oil and Gold
Co-relation between Energy and Gold
XAUXAG Ratio, half yearly cycle patterns
ECB Bond Program
Y2C: The Economic Projection, DOT Plot
Recession patterns: Markey Cycle 08 16

Kindly refer the settings of algo and trace the next price move for July: 3 parts | August 2 parts. RT F H1/H4

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Key Points:

$30 WAR Premium
Fed Statements
Powell Testimony
GBP Inflation data
ECB Policy updates
Ukraine EU updates
Russia RU trend
US China tensions
Gas Prices
Inflation rate
Central Bank Tightening
QT
Recession Data
US F
US 10YT 30YT
USDJPY
USD strength
DXY strength
JPY strength
XAUXAG Ratio

All the above data, parameters should be observed for an accurate decision for trading GOLD.

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As alerted on 14.06.2022: 1818-1808 was the BUY zone, followed by 1790/1777 zone, however GOLD price retraced from 1808 and on FED DAY, 1841 high was achieved, followed by a repeated attempts to crash below 1818, however 1818 proved a major support zone, and today GOLD price crossed 1836 barrier and achieved 1847, from where GOLD price had crashed on 13 June 2022 during US Session.

One fact was pretty clear: It was a BUY direction in GOLD, the crash may have sustained for a few days, however facts, parameters and data cannot lie and fail, unless a global speculation and manipulation is implemented by market makers.

Current scenario:

M30 H1 V pattern completed, extension in process: H4 V pattern 1855/1880 *(1888 zone ahead).

Most of the analysts in the world had predicted/published analysis of a crash until $1630/1700 hence I was all prepared for an ugly crash, though our trades were on hold in BUY direction from 1846 till 1836 zone, as per my analysis 1836/145 was a zone to be achieved first, even if an ugly crash looks like a high possibility in the coming week(s).

Many of our esteem traders, respected clients criticised my decision to hold trades in BUY position from 1826/1836 zone. Many of you all shared your concerns regarding my analysis and buy direction.

And here is the result, once again, my BUY positions proved correct and today GOLD completed the V pattern at 1847 CMP.

The art of trading and analysis may look like an illusion for a few days for those who lack knowledge and experience, however patience and knowledge always win, and saving principle amount has always been my top priority.

From today, all the accounts below $1.0 Million will not be allowed to copy the trades in any condition(s).

I thank you all for your kind comments, messages and emails.

I am sure it was a learning journey for all, including me.

Thank you.

June Non Farm Payrolls Day | XAUUSD Analysis: The Golden Barricades at $1907/1926

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) price is back to $1866 zone, where it was on 06 May, 2022 on NFP Day. In my analysis published last month, this is what I had mentioned: Non Farm Payrolls Day May 2022: Spot Gold Analysis: XAUUSD: $1866/1836 or $1907/1926? Result: Gold touched the mark of 1907 and then crashed till $1787 mark in less than 10 days. BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP ( Net Average Profit):

S2 ZONE 1846 | DOWN TREND (Below 1840) : 1836/1818/1800/1777 stops
R2 ZONE 1907 | UP TREND (After 1909) : 1916-1926-1947 stops

Analysis 06.05.2022 Review:

1909 was well achieved, hence sell limits hit at 1909 gave handsome profits at 1836. 1836/1818/1800 buy limits hit on 11 May – 16 May, 2022, and today GOLD is at 1866, proving accuracy of our analysis once again. Following the key levels mentioned in my analysis dated 06.05.2022: buying Gold at following price zones in last one month gave good returns:
($) 1836, 1818, 1808, 1790 and made an exit in net average profit of all trades
Selling Gold at following price zones in last three days proved a wise idea:
($) 1855, 1866 and made an exit in net average profit of all trades
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS | CMP $1866 | 03.06.2022
Thursday’s strong advance in XAUUSD was on the back of rising open interest and opens the door to further gains in the very near term. Against that, the precious metal faces a tough resistance around the $1,866 level per ounce troy.
Gold traders are facing barricades at around $1,866.00 amid cautious trading added with risk-on mood sentiments over the US NFP. The DXY has slipped below 101.70 on positive market sentiment. The ADP Research Institute has reported addition of 128k jobs in the labour market, significantly lower than the estimates of 300k. It is worth noting that the US labour market is at its peak levels and employment generation may get slower amid less scope for growth. Therefore, investors should brace for a slower job growth rate.
As per the market consensus, the US NFP is seen at 325k. The gold price is performing well against the greenback as investors are expecting that the actual NFP figure won’t even justify the consensus. A lower than expected job addition will fetch significant offers to the US dollar index (DXY). Currently, the DXY is oscillating below 101.70, and more downside looks possible considering the strength of the bears on the counter.
The greenback changed course on Thursday and gave up all of its Wednesday gains and more. Easing government bond yields and tepid US employment-related figures put pressure on the American currency, later weighed by the positive tone of Wall Street. However, it is always wise to stay cautious, as they say: Don’t always believe in what they show you, be cautious, implement money management and be ready for a reversal which may come as a surprise resulting in heavy drawdown.

US 10 Year yields stand at 2.915, USDJPY at 129.94, XAUXAG ratio at 83.50 and Dollar Index at 101.737 at the time of writing.
How to trade Spot Gold XAUUSD on NFP data today?

Bearish Scenario: Gold Stops: $1836/1818/1777, once again?
If the bearish momentum extends, gold price could fall further towards 1836 (after 1842) with 1818/1777 as final destination, if Gold crash halts at 1836 or 1818 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 12 trading days.
Bullish Scenario: Gold Stops: $1907/1926/1947?
If the Bullish momentum pushes Gold price across $1888 barrier, $1907 and $1926 can be the next target for Gold, opening way to $1947.
Heading into the NFP showdown today, gold price is under a price trap of 1836-1866 zone, as investors are less hesitant to place fresh bets due to ongoing saga of risk-on mood. The US NFP will emerge as the main market driver for gold price today.

A break above $1907 after M1 M5 23.6 retracement format, might result in price trap of $1926-$1947 on a longer run and a further bullish trend might help GOLD bulls to achieve $1947-1966 zone. However a crash below $1842 might open gates for $1836 (after S2), $1818/1777 zone before retracement is achieved at 23.6 M5, M15/M30 in next 12 days.

 
TRADING STRATEGY:
Observe price at US OPENING SS1 and then US SS2
Observe S2-S3/S4 zone and R2-R3 zone for reversals/retracement, Target NAP
Do not enter between the S/R zones or in pivot zone
Observe: FIB 23.6% on M5 and M15 TF for NAP target price
after 30/60/90/120 minutes of NFP

Price of Focus (POF)

Crash scenario:

S2 -6/9 RT NAP
S3 -3/6 RT NAP
S4 -6 RT NAP

Rise scenario:
R2+6/9 RT NAP
R3+3/6 RT NAP
R4+6 RT NAP
Implement RM till 30 after 15/30 min. and price gap 12/18/24 after NFP
Implement GR/SM after $25/40 price movement from CMP at NFP data
Golden Ratio based money management should not be used at least till $24 price movement in any direction, if SM needs to be ignored.

Kindly observe the crucial limits/stops levels mentioned by me in this analysis in addition to possible crash and rise zones highlighted in

Today, I will prefer to BUY session/daily lows below Support zone (-3/6/9 pattern) S3 and S4, and I will prefer to SELL above Resistance zones 2 and 3 with a target of NET average profit, if fundamentals support and favour the same.
Movement of 25/40 or 60 dollars on Gold price is not something unexpected nowadays, and a surprise on Monday during early trading hours can not be ruled out too, so closing all positions today in net average profit is always the best trading strategy for every trader who wants to safeguard his principle. I expect A pattern in next 12 days.

BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP ( Net Average Profit):

S2 ZONE 1847 | DOWN TREND (Below 1842) : 1836/1818/1800/1777 BUY LIMITS
R2 ZONE 1907 | UP TREND (After 1911) : 1916-1926-1947 SELL LIMITS

It is always wise to first PLAN THE TRADE, and then TRADE THE PLAN! Hence, it is suggested to first observe the crash or rise with specific zones and levels in mind on the basis of various fundamental and technical parameters mentioned above, before entering a trade in a specific direction with a target of net average profit in a specific set of trades.

WARNING: Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. The author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. The author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. The author is not a registered investment advisor and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. All performance information reflects past performance and is presented on a total return basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may differ from the performance shown.

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Information on this Channel/Page contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Information or opinions provided by us should not be used for investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments. When making a decision about your investments, you should seek the advice of a professional financial adviser.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
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$1836-1832 : AS ALERTED YESTERDAY:

Acceptance below the 21-DMA at $1,848 will trigger a fresh drop towards the horizontal 200-DMA at $1,840. Daily closing below the latter is needed to fade the recovery and turn the focus back on the May 18 low of $1,808/1,777.

Recapturing the daily highs of $1,866 is critical to take on the upside towards the previous day’s high of $1,864. Further up, the two-week highs at $1,875 will be next on the buyers’ radars, above which the mildly bullish 100-DMA at $1,888 will be challenged.

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Gold attracted some dip-buying near the $1,846 region on Tuesday and climbed back closer to the daily peak during the early European session.

The overnight optimism led by the easing of COVID-19 lockdowns in China turned out to be short-lived amid doubts if central banks can hike interest rates to curb inflation without impacting economic growth.

The worries resurface following the release of official Chinese PMIs, which showed contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors during May. This, along with concerns that the global supply chain disruption would continue to push consumer prices even higher, weighed on investors' sentiment and benefitted the safe-haven precious metal.

Gold is facing headwind from the firmer US dollar and significantly rising bond yields

After German inflation surged unexpectedly steeply to 7.9% in May, the EU-wide rate of inflation is also likely to have risen further. In this environment, gold should really be in demand as a store of value. However, such a high inflation rate could also reignite the debate about whether the ECB should perhaps increase interest rates more quickly or sharply.

Calls for a 50 basis point hike at the meeting in July could become louder, in which case gold might come under pressure.

This week's rather busy US economic docket kicks off with the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold prices. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around the XAUUSD.

Acceptance below the 21-DMA at $1,848 will trigger a fresh drop towards the horizontal 200-DMA at $1,840. Daily closing below the latter is needed to fade the recovery and turn the focus back on the May 18 low of $1,808/1,777.

Recapturing the daily highs of $1,866 is critical to take on the upside towards the previous day’s high of $1,864. Further up, the two-week highs at $1,875 will be next on the buyers’ radars, above which the mildly bullish 100-DMA at $1,888 will be challenged.

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