Lyra Gold Trend

Lyra Gold Trend is a trend expert for XAUUSD on M15. It mostly buys. Every trade has a stop loss. It uses no grid, martingale or averaging.

What it does

Lyra scores the trend direction on D1, H4, H1 and M15 and opens a trade at a score of 7 or more. ADX and spread filters must also pass. Trading hours are 07:00 to 20:00 server time, with hours 16 and 18 skipped.

Two entry filters skip trades: an entry where D1, H4 and H1 agree but M15 does not, and a new buy after gold has risen more than 8% in 20 days.

The stop is 2 times the H1 ATR and the target is 3 times the stop distance. At 1.5 R the stop moves to just past entry. Trades still open at 20:00 on Friday are closed.

It mostly buys. Sell trades need a higher score: 1.5 points more by default. Buys were 86% of trades in the 2024-26 test below and 76% in the 2019-24 test. It can sell, so it is not a buy-only expert. A long fall in gold is a poor market for it.

Win-rate counting. Lyra counts wins and losses by hour, weekday and pattern in a local file, and these counts add to the score, subtract from it, or skip an hour, day or pattern. Nothing is trained. A new user starts with no history. Some input names contain "AI"; they refer to this counting.

Lyra does not use a grid, martingale or averaging. It holds one position at a time on its chart symbol, and the lot never rises after a loss.

Before you use it

Check your broker's server time. All hours are broker server time. On a broker in another time zone, the trading hours will fall at different times of day unless you change the inputs.

Use it on XAUUSD or your broker's gold symbol. Lyra trades only the symbol of its chart. It runs on other symbols without errors, but its defaults were developed for gold and results on other symbols were not studied.

Use one chart per symbol.

A hedging account is assumed. It has not been tested on a netting account.

Main settings

The dashboard on the chart has these parts: Account (balance, equity, open profit, today, daily loss limit, drawdown), Signal (last check, score, setup), Position (side, lot, R, entry, stop, target, break-even), Market (bid and ask, spread, ADX, trend on D1, H4, H1 and M15, trading window), Performance (trades, win rate, profit factor and net by period, maximum equity drawdown), an Equity & Balance curve and the Last 10 closed trades. Its buttons are Light or Dark, Compact or Full, Hide, font size, minimize, Pause or Resume, and Close All with a second click to confirm. Light and Dark recolour the chart; the chart gets its own colours back when Lyra is removed.

The 20% stop is not a limit on your total loss. MaxDD_Pct compares open loss with the current balance. When the open loss reaches 20% of balance, Lyra stops opening trades and shows STOPPED on the panel. It does not close open trades, and it does not measure the fall from the account's peak. Press RESUME on the panel to restart.

The fixed lot is not a fixed risk. The stop distance follows volatility, so the loss from one 0.01 lot trade changes with it. In the 2024-26 test below the largest single loss was 75.67 EUR.

Percent mode. The lot comes from the money your broker's terminal calculates would be lost at the stop. Lyra refuses any lot that would lose more than 1.5 times the set risk at the stop. It then skips the trade and writes a line to the log. At 1% risk on gold with a 0.01 minimum lot, percent mode needs a balance of about 3,000 USD; below that more trades are refused. Manual mode has no such check: check the risk of your fixed lot yourself.

Historical test results

This is a historical test in the MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester. It is not a live result.

Tested with the strategy's development build (same trading logic).

Backtest results are historical and do not guarantee future performance.

Results will differ with your broker's data. Please test it yourself on your broker's data.

Known limits

• The win-rate counts are weaker than their names suggest. Hour, weekday and pattern results are all credited to the values of the first trade held in memory, not to each trade's own.
• No break-even after a restart. If the terminal or expert restarts while a trade is open, that trade no longer gets the move to break-even. Its stop and target stay in place.
• The 20% stop does not close trades. See above.
• Chart symbol only. One expert trades one symbol.
• All hours are server time.

Risks

• Trading leveraged products can lose all of your deposit. Use only money you can afford to lose.
• Past and tested results do not predict future results. This product makes no promise of profit.
• An earlier period was much weaker: the same settings from 2019.01.01 to 2024.10.09 (3,000 EUR, real ticks) made 343.77 EUR with a profit factor of 1.11 over 632 trades, 35.28% of them profitable.
• The strategy mostly buys, so it depends on gold rising or trending. The tested years include a strong rise in gold.
• The two entry filters were added after looking at recent gold data, so the 2024-26 result may be better than what you get in a new period.
• Losing runs happen: the 2024-26 test had up to 7 losses in a row, and the 2019-24 test up to 14.
• Spread, slippage, swap and execution differ between brokers and from the tester.
• News can move price through a stop, so a loss can be larger than planned.
• The daily loss limit and the 20% stop use the whole account. Other experts or manual trades on the same account can trigger them.
• The expert must run continuously, so the terminal needs a stable connection.
• This product is not financial advice.

Please run it on a demo account first.

Support

Please use the product comments or MQL5 messages.