Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Profilo

Piyush Ratnu Market Research | Black Monday 2024 | 05 August 2024 Facts

Piyush Ratnu Market Research | Black Monday 2024 | 05 August 2024 Facts

Gold price is consolidating the previous swift rebound to near the $2,410 region early Tuesday, as traders absorb Monday’s volatile trading. Gold price struggles to build on the recovery mode amid a solid comeback staged by the US Dollar, alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

Following the assurances by the US and Japanese authorities to calm nerves, markets are witnessing a massive positive shift in risk sentiment. The Asian stocks attempt a turnaround, with the Japanese benchmark index - the Nikkei 225, jumping nearly 10% so far, reversing the 12% historic sell-off seen Monday.

With the return of risk flows, the haven demand for the US government bonds fades, putting a fresh bid under the US Treasury bond yields and helping lift the US Dollar across the board at the expense of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

The diplomats from the US and Arab nations attempt to de-escalate the tensions between Iran and Israel that flared up since Wednesday, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in an attack. Iran blamed Israel, vowing to retaliate, with US intelligence noting that the attack could be panned over multiple days.

The diplomatic efforts to diffuse the situation seem to provide some support to the recovery in risk sentiment. However, traders remain wary of Iran striking back against Israel, as the former said “it didn’t care if the response triggered a war.”

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, stated on Monday that while Iran does not intend to heighten regional tensions, it believes it must punish Israel to deter further instability.

As the Middle East geopolitical situation remains in a delicate spot, traders are glued to the upcoming developments, refraining from placing any fresh position in the Gold price. However, the downside in Gold price could remain limited, as markets continue pricing in a nearly 90% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Additionally, the market has around 115 basis points of easing priced in for this year, and a similar amount for 2025, per Reuters.

Monday’s sell-off in Gold price, despite broad risk-aversion, could be attributed to investors locking in gains in their Gold longs to cover losses elsewhere. Global stock markets were in turmoil amid escalating Middle East tensions and US economic slowdown fears, following the weak US jobs report on Friday.

Crucial Price Zones:

🔺SZ $2442/2469/2485
🔻BZ $2385/2369/2342

Key Economic Data ahead:

12:30 GBP S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jul) 52.5 52.2
16:30 USD Exports (Jun) 261.70B
16:30 USD Imports (Jun) 336.70B
16:30 USD Trade Balance (Jun) -72.50B -75.10B
18:30 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.5% 2.5%
20:00 USD EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
21:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction 4.399%

Piyush Ratnu Market Research Analysis Trading Performance

Black Monday | 05 August 2024 | Duration: 12 hours

Why Yen carry-trades are in focus| Explained

The popular Yen-carry trade is in focus following the currency's sharp appreciation after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Here's what it means.

What is carry-trade?

A carry-trade is an immensely popular trading strategy, where an investor borrows money from a country with low interest rates, through a weaker currency(Japan in this case), and reinvests the money in another country’s assets, which gives a higher rate of return. Carry trade has been one of the biggest sources of flows in the global currency market.

Why is Japan's Yen important for Carry Trade

With low volatility, yen-funded carry trades were the most popular as investors bet Japanese interest rates would remain at rock bottom. The Bank of Japan, however, raised its rates for a second time in 17 years in its July 31 meeting, and has hinted at more, reported Bloomberg. Traders are now looking at the Chinese yuan, betting on the currency’s weakening amid concerns about the country’s economy.

#XAUUSD CMP $2404

H4AS5
H1AS2 achieved

Approaching D1AS5

Currently at PRSRSDBS S2

S3: $2385
S4: $2369
S5: $2342

#Gold #forex #PiyushRatnu #PRxauusd

Key Economic Data today:

17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 55.0 54.8
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 56.0 55.3
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul) 46.1
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.4 48.8
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 56.3

As projected on 31 July 2024 : USDJPY

Piyush Ratnu Market Research

BlackMonday #Yen #Japan #Gold #Dollar #Forex
Check Price projections by Piyush Ratnu Market Research:

https://bit.ly/BlackMondayScenariosbyPR

#USDJPY #Yen #Forex #Trading #PiyushRatnu

$142.170 target achieved

Buying zone As projected on 31.07.2024

Power of YEN! We alerted in advance!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/carry-trade-how-japans-yen-could-be-ripping-through-us-stocks.html

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/yen-rises-7-month-highs-us-slowdown-fears-carry-over-2024-08-05/

Verify at: https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1818639008752075226

NFP Impact:

Data: Negative
indicates: IRC chances higher

USD - XAUUSD +

USDJPY crashed: 149.080-147.080
Net crash 2000P

Possible impact on XAUUSD: $55-65++ observed till now $20

Target zones of USDJPY: $147849-146.967 was projected by me on 31 July 2024.Achieved successfully on 02 Aug. 2024.

Target Zones: $2469+ / $2472 R2 PRSRSDBS D1 format,
$2478 PRSRSDBS MN format projected by me today morning 08.35 hours: achieved successfully at 16.45 hours after NFP data.

CMP $2475 Avoid Short orders.

#NFP #Gold #XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Trading #forex

#Iran #Israel #XAUUSD #NFP #PiyushRatnu Iranian commanders are considering a combination of drones and missiles on military targets around Tel Aviv and Haifa while avoiding civilian targets, the New York Times reported. Iran is also considered a coordinated attack with its proxies in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, it said.

This might result in $50+ price rise in XAUUSD in a single day, hence avoid big SHORT positions.

US F 1 2 3 : BUY at CMP

PG 75 P | Exit in NAP

Set: 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5

#Trading #Analysis #PiyushRatnu

Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that fuels consumer spending and eventually drives price pressures. Annually, the wage growth measure is estimated to have decelerated to 3.7% from the prior reading of 3.9%, with the monthly figure growing steadily by 0.3%. Softer-than-expected wage growth data will diminish fears of persistent inflation, which will strengthen Fed rate-cut prospects. On the contrary, stubborn numbers would weaken them.

Meanwhile, deepening risks of an all-out war between Iran and Israel have improved the Gold’s safe-haven appeal. Iran vows to retaliate against the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by an Israeli air strike in Tehran.

Central bank and over-the-counter buying pushed Gold demand to record levels in Q2

Gold demand was up 4 percent to 1,258 tons in the second quarter, the highest level on record since the World Gold Council started compiling data in 2000.

Demand for gold was strong in the second quarter despite record gold prices. The LBMA gold price averaged a record of $2,338 per ounce in Q2. That was 18 percent higher year-on-year and 13 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Central bank and over-the-counter (OTC) buying offset a sharp drop in gold jewelry demand.

Based on the most recent World Gold Council survey, central banks' appetite for gold won't be sated any time soon.

Gold bar and coin demand was down about 5 percent year-on-year. A big drop in gold coin sales (38 percent) drove the overall softening of physical investment demand. Bar demand was up 12 percent. This likely reflects the fact that bars are the preferred gold product in Asia, where demand remains robust.

"OTC markets are characterized by market participants trading directly with each other. The two counterparties to trade bilaterally agree on a price and have obligations to settle the transaction (exchange of cash for gold) with each other. This form of principal-to-principal gold trading is typically less regulated than trading on an exchange and is how most of the market has functioned historically."

Gold used in technology was up a healthy 11 percent to 81 tons in the second quarter. The electronics sector drove growth, increasing by 14 percent year-on-year.

Co-relations

US10YT stable (-)
DXY RT +60% H1
XAUXAG 84.27
USDJPY + 148.600-150.400
1800 P possible impact on XAUUSD
= $30+20= $50

$2456-50= $2407/2385 range.

H1AS5 $2424 zone
H1AS1 $2407 zone
H1AS2 $2400 zone

H4AS1 $2407 zone
H4AS5 $2407 zone

$2407 looks like ideal BUY ZONE

Crash stops:

$2385
$2369
$2332
$2300
$2288

I will prefer to BUY LOWS.

Key Economic Data Ahead:

16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K 1,851K
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 236K 235K
16:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.7% 0.2%
16:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.8% 4.0%
17:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
17:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.5 51.6
18:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% -0.1%
18:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) 49.0 49.3
18:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 48.8 48.5
18:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 51.9 52.1

FOMC Statement

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Daily digest market movers: XAUUSD: $2370/2360 or $2407/2417 today?

• Gold is regaining some of the ground lost on Monday, favoured by a somewhat brighter market mood as concerns of a full-blown war in the Middle East have eased.

• Israeli authorities assured that they want to retaliate Hizbullah, for the rocket attack that killed 12 people on the weekend, but that they want to avoid a regional war in the Middle East. This has calmed market fears.

• Later today, the Conference Board is expected to show that the Consumer Sentiment Index deteriorated marginally in July, to a reading of 99.5 from the 100.4 posted in the previous month.

• In the same line, US JOLTS Job Openings are seen to have declined to 8.03 million in June from the 8.14 million openings reported in May.

• The Fed is releasing its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and the recent inflation readings have boosted market expectations that the bank might signal the exit of the restrictive cycle.

• US 10-year yields are marginally above four-month highs, while the 2-year yield, the most closely related to interest rate expectations, remains depressed at their lowest levels since February.

• The CME Group’s Fed Watch tool is pricing a 95% chance that the Fed will keep rates on hold on Wednesday and a 100% chance that rate cuts will start in September.

#XAUUSD #Gold #Trading #Forex #PiyushRatnu

Read previous article in which I had projected $2369 as potential buying zone:


https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1e9cjfh/xauusd_23422323_or_24852509_in_next_10_days/

XAUUSD today's low: $2366,
reversal achieved: $2366-2377 at 13.30 hours.