Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
- Trader & Analyst al Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
- Emirati Arabi Uniti
- 295
|
1 anno
esperienza
|
0
prodotti
|
0
versioni demo
|
|
0
lavori
|
0
segnali
|
0
iscritti
|
Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Spot Gold XAUUSD Price Projection: Next 6 months | Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold is firming up near $4,250 early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. Gold buyers retain control at the start of a new month amid growing calls for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as early as next week.
Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar (USD) keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.
Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research aim for the $4,444/4545 price target for XAUUSD Spot Gold.
Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.
Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar (USD) keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.
Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research aim for the $4,444/4545 price target for XAUUSD Spot Gold.
Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Despite the disruption, spot gold and silver markets remained active, with prices climbing amid continued investor interest.
Gold rose to $4,245 per ounce, while silver made new highs near $57, driven in part by concerns over tight supply and long-term bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and sanctions have reshaped central bank strategies.
For the first time, Russia’s central bank began selling its gold reserves directly to the domestic market.
Faced with dwindling liquid assets and a shrinking National Welfare Fund, Moscow is offloading substantial amounts of gold to stabilize its currency and meet budgetary needs.
Analysts warn this move, while temporarily supportive, risks depleting Russia’s strategic reserves and increasing its dependency on asset sales for financial stability.
On the global stage, China’s role in the gold market is under increasing scrutiny.
Independent estimates suggest the country’s actual gold purchases may be ten times higher than official figures, positioning China as the second-largest holder of sovereign gold after the U.S.
Analysts believe this quiet accumulation is part of a broader strategy to reduce exposure to U.S. assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The trend highlights a global shift toward gold as a hedge against sanctions, currency instability, and economic fragmentation.
Together, these developments reflect a broader transformation in the global financial system.
Central banks in emerging markets are doubling down on gold to protect reserves, diversify away from the dollar, and prepare for a more multipolar world.
With prices already surging—gold up over 40% in 2025—analysts forecast further gains, expecting the metal to surpass $5,000 per ounce in a sustained long-term rally.
Gold rose to $4,245 per ounce, while silver made new highs near $57, driven in part by concerns over tight supply and long-term bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and sanctions have reshaped central bank strategies.
For the first time, Russia’s central bank began selling its gold reserves directly to the domestic market.
Faced with dwindling liquid assets and a shrinking National Welfare Fund, Moscow is offloading substantial amounts of gold to stabilize its currency and meet budgetary needs.
Analysts warn this move, while temporarily supportive, risks depleting Russia’s strategic reserves and increasing its dependency on asset sales for financial stability.
On the global stage, China’s role in the gold market is under increasing scrutiny.
Independent estimates suggest the country’s actual gold purchases may be ten times higher than official figures, positioning China as the second-largest holder of sovereign gold after the U.S.
Analysts believe this quiet accumulation is part of a broader strategy to reduce exposure to U.S. assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The trend highlights a global shift toward gold as a hedge against sanctions, currency instability, and economic fragmentation.
Together, these developments reflect a broader transformation in the global financial system.
Central banks in emerging markets are doubling down on gold to protect reserves, diversify away from the dollar, and prepare for a more multipolar world.
With prices already surging—gold up over 40% in 2025—analysts forecast further gains, expecting the metal to surpass $5,000 per ounce in a sustained long-term rally.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
A rare technical fault at CME Group temporarily froze global futures trading, including precious metals like gold and silver, triggering safe-haven demand as traders scrambled for clarity.
The outage, caused by cooling failures at a major data center, hit during a low-volume period due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, which muted broader market impact.
The outage, caused by cooling failures at a major data center, hit during a low-volume period due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, which muted broader market impact.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Status of Co-relations post data:
USDJPY V100 achieved
155.665-156.555 achieved
Ideal case: XAUUSD (-) $45/60
$4114/4104/4085 on radar
Suggested trading scenario:
BUY LOWS | Exit NAP
XAUUSD PRSRSDBS D12
S2 S3 crucial
USDJPY V100 achieved
155.665-156.555 achieved
Ideal case: XAUUSD (-) $45/60
$4114/4104/4085 on radar
Suggested trading scenario:
BUY LOWS | Exit NAP
XAUUSD PRSRSDBS D12
S2 S3 crucial
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD Crucial Price Zones Ahead:
🔺$4242/4269/4285/4303/4343 | SZ
🔻$4085/4040/3985/3939/3883 | BZ
I suggest BUYING LOWS. Exit NAP.
SZ might be risky, hence avoid to hold the positions, exit in NAP, and before price/liquidity sweep zones.
🔺$4242/4269/4285/4303/4343 | SZ
🔻$4085/4040/3985/3939/3883 | BZ
I suggest BUYING LOWS. Exit NAP.
SZ might be risky, hence avoid to hold the positions, exit in NAP, and before price/liquidity sweep zones.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold is entering the final stretch of November with renewed strength as global markets reposition around a softer dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026. The metal has climbed decisively above the 4141 dollars area, extending the rebound that began after the mid month consolidation and now approaching the upper boundaries of the November range.
The dollar has lost some of the defensive bid that dominated much of the autumn. As Treasury yields retreated and traders began to price in a more accommodative Fed path, the dollar index pulled back from recent highs. For gold, this combination is particularly supportive. The metal tends to benefit when real yields decline and when the currency environment becomes less hostile to non yielding assets.
Behind this shift lies a gradual but meaningful change in economic data. Job growth moderated, leading indicators weakened, and several inflation components decelerated. None of these signals point to recession, but they collectively justify a more cautious policy stance.
Markets are now comfortable assigning a non trivial probability to a mid 2026 rate cut, a scenario that enhances the appeal of gold as a hedge against monetary adjustment.
Geo-political Pressures
The geopolitical environment remains complex. Tensions in several regions persist, energy markets continue to rebalance unevenly, and supply chain fragmentation remains a strategic concern for policymakers. In this context, gold plays a dual role. It offers protection against financial volatility and serves as a hedge against geopolitical surprise.
What's next in December?
The final month of the year often delivers distinct patterns in precious metals as liquidity thins and macro themes dominate. This year, gold enters December with a compelling combination of stabilizing inflation, easing yields, currency softness and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
These ingredients create a favourable environment for demand to remain steady even if momentum fluctuates.
The dollar has lost some of the defensive bid that dominated much of the autumn. As Treasury yields retreated and traders began to price in a more accommodative Fed path, the dollar index pulled back from recent highs. For gold, this combination is particularly supportive. The metal tends to benefit when real yields decline and when the currency environment becomes less hostile to non yielding assets.
Behind this shift lies a gradual but meaningful change in economic data. Job growth moderated, leading indicators weakened, and several inflation components decelerated. None of these signals point to recession, but they collectively justify a more cautious policy stance.
Markets are now comfortable assigning a non trivial probability to a mid 2026 rate cut, a scenario that enhances the appeal of gold as a hedge against monetary adjustment.
Geo-political Pressures
The geopolitical environment remains complex. Tensions in several regions persist, energy markets continue to rebalance unevenly, and supply chain fragmentation remains a strategic concern for policymakers. In this context, gold plays a dual role. It offers protection against financial volatility and serves as a hedge against geopolitical surprise.
What's next in December?
The final month of the year often delivers distinct patterns in precious metals as liquidity thins and macro themes dominate. This year, gold enters December with a compelling combination of stabilizing inflation, easing yields, currency softness and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
These ingredients create a favourable environment for demand to remain steady even if momentum fluctuates.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
As Alerted in advance:
XAGUSD crashed $6.5 in last 3 days.
#XAGUSD #PiyushRatnu #forex #trading #analysis
XAGUSD crashed $6.5 in last 3 days.
#XAGUSD #PiyushRatnu #forex #trading #analysis
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣WHY XAUUSD Shot up from $3333 zone:
🟢1. Gold rallies to $3,359 after Trump BLS nominee suggests suspending monthly NFP releases.
🟢2. Trump slams Powell, threatens lawsuit, reigniting Fed independence concerns | Uncertainty = XAUUSD +🔺
🟢3. July US CPI misses headline estimates, boosting odds of September Fed rate cut = XAUUSD 🔺
Gold price recovered some ground on Tuesday, climbing 0.20% following the release of July’s inflation print in the United States (US).
Although prices had risen, Bullion’s was supported by US President Donald Trump's remarks threatening the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. The XAU/USD trades at $3,348 at the time of writing.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July missed estimates in its headline print YoY and increased the odds for a rate cut. However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile items, jumped above the 3% threshold YoY. Impact: XAUUSD 🔺
Initially, XAU/USD fell toward its daily lows but was boosted by Trump's comments on Jerome Powell, calling the Fed Chair too late at cutting rates and threatening to sue him regarding the renovation of the Fed buildings.
It was worth noticing the timing of Mr. Trump's remarks and US CPI data.
On the remarks, Bullion prices rose from around daily lows near $3,331 toward $3,345 before rising toward their daily high of $3,359.
🔔Gold’s last leg up was courtesy of EJ Antoni, the economist nominated by Trump to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), who suggested suspending monthly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)data. He argued that its underlying methodology, economic modeling, and statistical assumptions are fundamentally flawed. Instead, Antoni proposes quarterly data.
🟢1. Gold rallies to $3,359 after Trump BLS nominee suggests suspending monthly NFP releases.
🟢2. Trump slams Powell, threatens lawsuit, reigniting Fed independence concerns | Uncertainty = XAUUSD +🔺
🟢3. July US CPI misses headline estimates, boosting odds of September Fed rate cut = XAUUSD 🔺
Gold price recovered some ground on Tuesday, climbing 0.20% following the release of July’s inflation print in the United States (US).
Although prices had risen, Bullion’s was supported by US President Donald Trump's remarks threatening the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. The XAU/USD trades at $3,348 at the time of writing.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July missed estimates in its headline print YoY and increased the odds for a rate cut. However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile items, jumped above the 3% threshold YoY. Impact: XAUUSD 🔺
Initially, XAU/USD fell toward its daily lows but was boosted by Trump's comments on Jerome Powell, calling the Fed Chair too late at cutting rates and threatening to sue him regarding the renovation of the Fed buildings.
It was worth noticing the timing of Mr. Trump's remarks and US CPI data.
On the remarks, Bullion prices rose from around daily lows near $3,331 toward $3,345 before rising toward their daily high of $3,359.
🔔Gold’s last leg up was courtesy of EJ Antoni, the economist nominated by Trump to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), who suggested suspending monthly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)data. He argued that its underlying methodology, economic modeling, and statistical assumptions are fundamentally flawed. Instead, Antoni proposes quarterly data.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
USDJPY - XAUUSD Co-relations:
USDJPY: S1-R2 achieved
XAUUSD: R1-S2 (ahead)
USDJPY $146.775-147.935 +
Expected impact on XAUUSD:
$35/50 | $3373-50 = $3323
BZ $3333/3309/3285 on radar
Reversal scenario:
USDJPY RT (-) = XAUUSD +
1000P/$30
USDJPY: S1-R2 achieved
XAUUSD: R1-S2 (ahead)
USDJPY $146.775-147.935 +
Expected impact on XAUUSD:
$35/50 | $3373-50 = $3323
BZ $3333/3309/3285 on radar
Reversal scenario:
USDJPY RT (-) = XAUUSD +
1000P/$30
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
WHY XAUUSD is crashing?
The risk-on market environment continues to diminish the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD) and Gold price.
The ECB is widely expected to hold key interest rates following its July policy meeting later this Thursday.
Markets will also closely follow the developments surrounding the ongoing feud between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as the former is set to visit the Fed today.
The risk-on market environment continues to diminish the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD) and Gold price.
The ECB is widely expected to hold key interest rates following its July policy meeting later this Thursday.
Markets will also closely follow the developments surrounding the ongoing feud between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as the former is set to visit the Fed today.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
USDJPY 1000 P crash observed after 85% RT of price gap witnessed early morning.
What it indicates?
This price action indicates strengthening YEN, resulting in lower USD = XAUUSD +.
USDJPY: (-) 1000P = XAUUSD $30/45+
$3355+30= $3385/3404 zone on radar.
What it indicates?
This price action indicates strengthening YEN, resulting in lower USD = XAUUSD +.
USDJPY: (-) 1000P = XAUUSD $30/45+
$3355+30= $3385/3404 zone on radar.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🔴 XAUUSD
H1VS5 achieved
$3312-3308 achieved
Exit ALL SELL Positions
💬I will NOT SHORT XAUUSD
🟢I will ONLY BUY LOWS at my BUYING ZONES.
H1VS5 achieved
$3312-3308 achieved
Exit ALL SELL Positions
💬I will NOT SHORT XAUUSD
🟢I will ONLY BUY LOWS at my BUYING ZONES.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
WHY XAUUSD price crashed today?
🔴Gold drops over 1% as US Dollar and Treasury yields strengthen.
🔴Trump delays tariff deadline to August 1, calming trade nerves.
🔴Traders scale back 2025 Fed cut expectations to just 48 basis points
+NFP Data published on Thursday, gave additional strength to Dollar and co-related assets boosting risk sentiment impacting XAUUSD price negatively.
I had projected $3285 (check here: https://t.me/c/1654158888/17434) as a possible price target, today 70% positions were observed on LONG, and a crash in GOLD price generated a good retail revenue for the GOLD LPs.
CMP $3303 XAUUSD Spot Gold
🔴Gold drops over 1% as US Dollar and Treasury yields strengthen.
🔴Trump delays tariff deadline to August 1, calming trade nerves.
🔴Traders scale back 2025 Fed cut expectations to just 48 basis points
+NFP Data published on Thursday, gave additional strength to Dollar and co-related assets boosting risk sentiment impacting XAUUSD price negatively.
I had projected $3285 (check here: https://t.me/c/1654158888/17434) as a possible price target, today 70% positions were observed on LONG, and a crash in GOLD price generated a good retail revenue for the GOLD LPs.
CMP $3303 XAUUSD Spot Gold
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Through the first half of 2025, gold-backed funds globally reported the highest semi-annual inflows of metal since H1 2020 in the early months of the pandemic.
After modest outflows of gold in May, flows flipped positive in June with ETFs globally adding 74.6 tonnes of gold to their holdings.
Every region reported positive flows last month.
Through the first half of 2025, gold-backed funds globally increased their holdings by 397.1 tonnes.
Gold inflows totaled $38 billion through the first half of the year. That drove total assets under management (AUM) higher by 41 percent to $383 billion. That broke a month-end record and hit the highest level in 34 months.
North American funds led the way, increasing their gold holdings by 206.8 tonnes. Total H1 inflows totaled $21 billion. It was the strongest H1 for North American gold ETFs in five years.
European funds increased their gold holdings by 78.9 tonnes, totaling $6 billion through the first half of 2025. According to the World Gold Council, “The eighth cut from the European Central Bank, uncertainties surrounding growth, and rising geopolitical risks generally, contributed to gold ETF demand in several major markets.”
Asian ETFs increased their gold reserves by a record 104.3 tonnes in H1, totaling $ 11 billion. Asian investors bought a record amount of gold ETFs during H1, making up 28 percent of net global flows with only 9 percent of the total AUM.
China’s inflows of 85 tonnes totaling $8.8 were unprecedented, driven by spiking trade risks with the U.S., growth concerns, and the surging gold price.
Funds listed in other regions, including Australia and Africa, added 7.2 tonnes of gold to their holdings. ETFs based in Australia and South Africa were the main contributors.
ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.
Why ETF Volumes are increasing?
ETFs are relatively liquid.
You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.
Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.
But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play the price of gold on the market, you don’t actually possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
🟢Gold trading volumes
Gold market trading volumes averaged $329 billion per day through the first half of the year. That was the highest semi-annual average on record.
Over-the-counter trading increased to an average of $165 billion per day in H1, well above the 2024 average of $128 billion/day.
Exchange-traded volumes also saw a significant increase through H1, averaging $159 billion per day. Increased activity on COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange helped drive this momentum.
Money managers reduced their long gold positions by 28 percent over the first six months.
However, there was a notable shift in June, with longs increasing by 11 percent. According to the World Gold Council, “This was likely supported by consolidation in the gold price, providing investors with a window of opportunity to begin rebuilding positions.”
After modest outflows of gold in May, flows flipped positive in June with ETFs globally adding 74.6 tonnes of gold to their holdings.
Every region reported positive flows last month.
Through the first half of 2025, gold-backed funds globally increased their holdings by 397.1 tonnes.
Gold inflows totaled $38 billion through the first half of the year. That drove total assets under management (AUM) higher by 41 percent to $383 billion. That broke a month-end record and hit the highest level in 34 months.
North American funds led the way, increasing their gold holdings by 206.8 tonnes. Total H1 inflows totaled $21 billion. It was the strongest H1 for North American gold ETFs in five years.
European funds increased their gold holdings by 78.9 tonnes, totaling $6 billion through the first half of 2025. According to the World Gold Council, “The eighth cut from the European Central Bank, uncertainties surrounding growth, and rising geopolitical risks generally, contributed to gold ETF demand in several major markets.”
Asian ETFs increased their gold reserves by a record 104.3 tonnes in H1, totaling $ 11 billion. Asian investors bought a record amount of gold ETFs during H1, making up 28 percent of net global flows with only 9 percent of the total AUM.
China’s inflows of 85 tonnes totaling $8.8 were unprecedented, driven by spiking trade risks with the U.S., growth concerns, and the surging gold price.
Funds listed in other regions, including Australia and Africa, added 7.2 tonnes of gold to their holdings. ETFs based in Australia and South Africa were the main contributors.
ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.
Why ETF Volumes are increasing?
ETFs are relatively liquid.
You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.
Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.
But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play the price of gold on the market, you don’t actually possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
🟢Gold trading volumes
Gold market trading volumes averaged $329 billion per day through the first half of the year. That was the highest semi-annual average on record.
Over-the-counter trading increased to an average of $165 billion per day in H1, well above the 2024 average of $128 billion/day.
Exchange-traded volumes also saw a significant increase through H1, averaging $159 billion per day. Increased activity on COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange helped drive this momentum.
Money managers reduced their long gold positions by 28 percent over the first six months.
However, there was a notable shift in June, with longs increasing by 11 percent. According to the World Gold Council, “This was likely supported by consolidation in the gold price, providing investors with a window of opportunity to begin rebuilding positions.”
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its heavily offered tone through the first half of the European session and currently trades just above a nearly two-week low touched earlier this Tuesday.
🔻News of the Iran-Israel ceasefire boosts investors' confidence and triggers a fresh wave of global risk-on trade, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, the intraday downfall in XAUUSD Price seems rather unaffected by some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling, which tends to benefit the Gold price.
The mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Fed officials fueled speculations about the possibility of a rate cut in July.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that the time to cut rates may be fast approaching as she has grown more worried about risks to the job market and less concerned that tariffs will cause an inflation problem.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's stated the US central bank should consider cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on July 29-30, which keeps the USD depressed and further supports the non-yielding yellow metal.
The focus remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, which could offer cues about the future rate-cut path and determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD pair.
🟢XAUUSD 🔺 🔺
Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔺SZ $3434/3469/3485
🔻BZ $3285/3269/3232
Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD.
🔻News of the Iran-Israel ceasefire boosts investors' confidence and triggers a fresh wave of global risk-on trade, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, the intraday downfall in XAUUSD Price seems rather unaffected by some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling, which tends to benefit the Gold price.
The mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Fed officials fueled speculations about the possibility of a rate cut in July.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that the time to cut rates may be fast approaching as she has grown more worried about risks to the job market and less concerned that tariffs will cause an inflation problem.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's stated the US central bank should consider cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on July 29-30, which keeps the USD depressed and further supports the non-yielding yellow metal.
The focus remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, which could offer cues about the future rate-cut path and determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD pair.
🟢XAUUSD 🔺 🔺
Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔺SZ $3434/3469/3485
🔻BZ $3285/3269/3232
Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD co-relations:
USDJPY 1000P +
Expected Impact on XAUUSD:
$30 (-) | 🔻$3396-3366 zone ideal
XAUUSD net crash witnessed today:
🔻$3396-3348 ($50)
🔺RT + $3349-3369 achieved
XAUUSD back to the opening price gap observed at early morning today $3369-3366 zone.
As suggested by me since last week, BUY LOWS, avoid SHORTS.
09 June: $3290 LOW | BUY
11 June: $3320 LOW | BUY
13 June $3380 LOW | BUY
17 June: $3366 LOW | BUY
20 June: $3339 LOW | BUY
XAUUSD:
HIGH $3396 achieved today.
ALL BUY POSITIONS proved correct.
Short positions at above mentioned lows proved a LOSS making deal, resulting in high DD.
XAUUSD CURRENT MARKET PRICE: $3369
USDJPY 1000P +
Expected Impact on XAUUSD:
$30 (-) | 🔻$3396-3366 zone ideal
XAUUSD net crash witnessed today:
🔻$3396-3348 ($50)
🔺RT + $3349-3369 achieved
XAUUSD back to the opening price gap observed at early morning today $3369-3366 zone.
As suggested by me since last week, BUY LOWS, avoid SHORTS.
09 June: $3290 LOW | BUY
11 June: $3320 LOW | BUY
13 June $3380 LOW | BUY
17 June: $3366 LOW | BUY
20 June: $3339 LOW | BUY
XAUUSD:
HIGH $3396 achieved today.
ALL BUY POSITIONS proved correct.
Short positions at above mentioned lows proved a LOSS making deal, resulting in high DD.
XAUUSD CURRENT MARKET PRICE: $3369
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD
🔻$3333
🔺$3393
on radar
Avoid BIG LOTS
USD S 95
USDJPY 800P+
DXY - RT +
US10YT -
🔻$3333
🔺$3393
on radar
Avoid BIG LOTS
USD S 95
USDJPY 800P+
DXY - RT +
US10YT -