Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
- Trader & Analyst al Piyush Ratnu Financial Market Research
- Emirati Arabi Uniti
- 234
|
3 anni
esperienza
|
0
prodotti
|
0
versioni demo
|
|
0
lavori
|
0
segnali
|
0
iscritti
|
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟥 USDJPY and XAUUSD:
Both instruments under PPZ.
Avoid entries.
XAUUSD S2 2007 | R2 2033
USDJPY S2: 146.970 | R2: 148.348
Both instruments under PPZ.
Avoid entries.
XAUUSD S2 2007 | R2 2033
USDJPY S2: 146.970 | R2: 148.348
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢 All LONG Trades closed in Net Average Profit.
XAUUSD: Entry Price Zones (Yesterday):
2023/2020/2017/2014/2011
XAUUSD: Entry Price Zones (Yesterday):
2023/2020/2017/2014/2011
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟥 XAUUSD: PRSRZ W1
S2: 2001
S3: 1979
S4: 1966
S5: 1944
R1: 2036
R2: 2058
R3: 2079
R4: 2093
R5: 2115
Gold price (XAU/USD) ekes out small gains on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight heavy losses to the $2,011 area, or a multi-day low, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. In the absence of any fresh fundamental trigger, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action is seen as a key factor lending some support to the commodity amid worries about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Any meaningful appreciating move, however, still seems elusive in the wake of growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not rush to cut interest rates.
The expectations were reaffirmed by the better-than-expected US data on Wednesday, which showed that the economy kicked off 2024 on a stronger note. The S&P Global flash US Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 47.9 to a 15-month high of 50.3 in January and the gauge for the services sector climbed to 52.9, or the highest reading since last June. Furthermore, the flash US Composite PMI Output Index increased to 52.3 this month, or the highest since last June. This reaffirms the view that the world's largest economy is in good shape and forces investors to further scale back their bets for a more aggressive Fed policy easing in 2024. This, in turn, allows the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady near a more than one-month high touched last week, which favours the USD bulls and should cap gains for the non-yielding Gold price.
📌 Crucial Zones: BZ: $1990/1985 SZ: $2035/2042 📌
S2: 2001
S3: 1979
S4: 1966
S5: 1944
R1: 2036
R2: 2058
R3: 2079
R4: 2093
R5: 2115
Gold price (XAU/USD) ekes out small gains on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight heavy losses to the $2,011 area, or a multi-day low, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. In the absence of any fresh fundamental trigger, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action is seen as a key factor lending some support to the commodity amid worries about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Any meaningful appreciating move, however, still seems elusive in the wake of growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not rush to cut interest rates.
The expectations were reaffirmed by the better-than-expected US data on Wednesday, which showed that the economy kicked off 2024 on a stronger note. The S&P Global flash US Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 47.9 to a 15-month high of 50.3 in January and the gauge for the services sector climbed to 52.9, or the highest reading since last June. Furthermore, the flash US Composite PMI Output Index increased to 52.3 this month, or the highest since last June. This reaffirms the view that the world's largest economy is in good shape and forces investors to further scale back their bets for a more aggressive Fed policy easing in 2024. This, in turn, allows the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady near a more than one-month high touched last week, which favours the USD bulls and should cap gains for the non-yielding Gold price.
📌 Crucial Zones: BZ: $1990/1985 SZ: $2035/2042 📌
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
ECB EURO Interest Rate Decision | How to trade EURUSD? Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
The European Central Bank (ECB) will have its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Thursday, but little is to be expected from European policymakers. The Main Refinancing Operations Rate will likely be maintained unchanged at 4.50%, and the Deposit Facility Rate at 4%. If something is, the central bank will continue “tightening” through the reduction of reinvestments in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
As per Economists at TD Securities:
Base Case (65%)
The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. The Governing Council emphasizes its broad reaction function and reiterates the importance of economic data in determining the ECB's policy stance. President Lagarde suggests that cuts are likely to come around the summer. That said, the President makes it clear that the exact timing is still very much up in the air, and will ultimately be decided by the data. EUR/USD -0.15%.
Hawkish (30%)
In a hawkish turn, President Lagarde pushes back hard against discussions about the potential timing of rate cuts. Lagarde argues that cuts will come, probably some time this year, and while market pricing looks too dovish, it is too early to comment on when cuts are likely to come. While inflation developments have been promising, Lagarde stresses that the tight labour market adds upside risks to the policy outlook. EUR/USD +0.75%.
Dovish (5%)
Despite recently pushing back against market expectations for spring cuts, President Lagarde fails to do so at the press conference – seemingly offering some credibility to market bets. EUR/USD -0.50%.
EURUSD under PPZ: avoid entries
ECB interest rate decision is scheduled at 15.15 hours, followed US GDP, Core Durable Goods Orders at 17.30 and press conference at 17.45 hours. Further ECB P speech is scheduled at 19.15 hours.
A dead price trap zone might be witnessed followed by a sudden spike/crash, hence kindly follow PRSR W1 strictly on XAUUSD, USDJPY and EURUSD.
🟥 EURUSD: PRSRZ
S2: 1.07979
S3: 1.07219
S4: 1.065750
R2: 1.09967
R3: 1.10727
R4: 1.11196
EURUSD: Expected recovery (50%) of crash/rise: 9 trading days.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will have its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Thursday, but little is to be expected from European policymakers. The Main Refinancing Operations Rate will likely be maintained unchanged at 4.50%, and the Deposit Facility Rate at 4%. If something is, the central bank will continue “tightening” through the reduction of reinvestments in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
As per Economists at TD Securities:
Base Case (65%)
The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. The Governing Council emphasizes its broad reaction function and reiterates the importance of economic data in determining the ECB's policy stance. President Lagarde suggests that cuts are likely to come around the summer. That said, the President makes it clear that the exact timing is still very much up in the air, and will ultimately be decided by the data. EUR/USD -0.15%.
Hawkish (30%)
In a hawkish turn, President Lagarde pushes back hard against discussions about the potential timing of rate cuts. Lagarde argues that cuts will come, probably some time this year, and while market pricing looks too dovish, it is too early to comment on when cuts are likely to come. While inflation developments have been promising, Lagarde stresses that the tight labour market adds upside risks to the policy outlook. EUR/USD +0.75%.
Dovish (5%)
Despite recently pushing back against market expectations for spring cuts, President Lagarde fails to do so at the press conference – seemingly offering some credibility to market bets. EUR/USD -0.50%.
EURUSD under PPZ: avoid entries
ECB interest rate decision is scheduled at 15.15 hours, followed US GDP, Core Durable Goods Orders at 17.30 and press conference at 17.45 hours. Further ECB P speech is scheduled at 19.15 hours.
A dead price trap zone might be witnessed followed by a sudden spike/crash, hence kindly follow PRSR W1 strictly on XAUUSD, USDJPY and EURUSD.
🟥 EURUSD: PRSRZ
S2: 1.07979
S3: 1.07219
S4: 1.065750
R2: 1.09967
R3: 1.10727
R4: 1.11196
EURUSD: Expected recovery (50%) of crash/rise: 9 trading days.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
The European Central Bank (ECB) will have its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Thursday, but little is to be expected from European policymakers. The Main Refinancing Operations Rate will likely be maintained unchanged at 4.50%, and the Deposit Facility Rate at 4%. If something is, the central bank will continue “tightening” through the reduction of reinvestments in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
As per Economists at TD Securities:
Base Case (65%)
The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. The Governing Council emphasizes its broad reaction function and reiterates the importance of economic data in determining the ECB's policy stance. President Lagarde suggests that cuts are likely to come around the summer. That said, the President makes it clear that the exact timing is still very much up in the air, and will ultimately be decided by the data. EUR/USD -0.15%.
Hawkish (30%)
In a hawkish turn, President Lagarde pushes back hard against discussions about the potential timing of rate cuts. Lagarde argues that cuts will come, probably some time this year, and while market pricing looks too dovish, it is too early to comment on when cuts are likely to come. While inflation developments have been promising, Lagarde stresses that the tight labour market adds upside risks to the policy outlook. EUR/USD +0.75%.
Dovish (5%)
Despite recently pushing back against market expectations for spring cuts, President Lagarde fails to do so at the press conference – seemingly offering some credibility to market bets. EUR/USD -0.50%.
As per Economists at TD Securities:
Base Case (65%)
The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. The Governing Council emphasizes its broad reaction function and reiterates the importance of economic data in determining the ECB's policy stance. President Lagarde suggests that cuts are likely to come around the summer. That said, the President makes it clear that the exact timing is still very much up in the air, and will ultimately be decided by the data. EUR/USD -0.15%.
Hawkish (30%)
In a hawkish turn, President Lagarde pushes back hard against discussions about the potential timing of rate cuts. Lagarde argues that cuts will come, probably some time this year, and while market pricing looks too dovish, it is too early to comment on when cuts are likely to come. While inflation developments have been promising, Lagarde stresses that the tight labour market adds upside risks to the policy outlook. EUR/USD +0.75%.
Dovish (5%)
Despite recently pushing back against market expectations for spring cuts, President Lagarde fails to do so at the press conference – seemingly offering some credibility to market bets. EUR/USD -0.50%.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
24.01.2024 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
2024.01.25
🟢 All LONG Trades closed in Net Average Profit. XAUUSD: Entry Price Zones (Yesterday): 2023/2020/2017/2014/2011
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD CRASHED TO NEW MONTHLY LOWS BEFORE 26 JANUARY, ONCE AGAIN, AS PROJECTED EVERY YEAR IN DECEMBER.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price draws support from geopolitical risks, delayed Fed rate cut bets act as a headwind CMP 🟢 $2015
• The US Dollar bulls remain on the defensive, which, along with geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, lend some support to the safe-haven Gold price.
• Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted two US-owned commercial ships sailing close to the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday in the face of multiple rounds of US military airstrikes.
• This comes after the US military carried out pre-emptive strikes against the Houthis to stave off what it said was an imminent attack on shipping lanes in the important Red Sea trade route.
• The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI Output Index increased to 52.3 this month, or the highest since June, suggesting that the economy kicked off 2024 on a stronger note.
• The flash US Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 47.9 to a 15-month high of 50.3 in January, while the gauge for the services sector climbed to 52.9, or the highest reading since last June.
• The data further pointed to a still-resilient US economy and forced investors to further pare their bets for a more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2024.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond hovers near the monthly peak, which should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.
• The Advance US Q4 GDP print is due this Thursday and is expected to show that growth in the world's largest economy slowed to a 2% annualized pace from 4.9% in the previous quarter.
• Thursday's US economic docket also features the release of Durable Goods Orders and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which might influence the Greenback and the XAU/USD.
• Apart from this, the outcome of the highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting might infuse volatility in the markets and produce short-term trading opportunities.
• The market focus, meanwhile, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – on Friday.
• The US Dollar bulls remain on the defensive, which, along with geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, lend some support to the safe-haven Gold price.
• Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted two US-owned commercial ships sailing close to the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday in the face of multiple rounds of US military airstrikes.
• This comes after the US military carried out pre-emptive strikes against the Houthis to stave off what it said was an imminent attack on shipping lanes in the important Red Sea trade route.
• The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI Output Index increased to 52.3 this month, or the highest since June, suggesting that the economy kicked off 2024 on a stronger note.
• The flash US Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 47.9 to a 15-month high of 50.3 in January, while the gauge for the services sector climbed to 52.9, or the highest reading since last June.
• The data further pointed to a still-resilient US economy and forced investors to further pare their bets for a more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2024.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond hovers near the monthly peak, which should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.
• The Advance US Q4 GDP print is due this Thursday and is expected to show that growth in the world's largest economy slowed to a 2% annualized pace from 4.9% in the previous quarter.
• Thursday's US economic docket also features the release of Durable Goods Orders and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which might influence the Greenback and the XAU/USD.
• Apart from this, the outcome of the highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting might infuse volatility in the markets and produce short-term trading opportunities.
• The market focus, meanwhile, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – on Friday.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng said Wednesday the RRR will be cut by 0.5 percentage points on Feb. 5 to inject 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in long-term liquidity. The regulators followed up the PBOC announcement by adding more measures to bolster the slumping property and stocks.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 Key events today:
EUR
17:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75%
17:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
17:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 4.50% 4.50%
USD
17:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.5%
17:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.00% 2.00%
17:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 1.1% 5.4%
17:30 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec) 6.5%
17:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.0% 4.9%
17:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% 3.3%
17:30 USD GDP Sales (Q4) 3.6%
17:30 USD Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.8%
17:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -88.70B -90.27B
17:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 200K 187K
🟥 Crucial Zones: BZ $1990/1985 | SZ 2035/2042
EUR
17:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75%
17:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
17:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 4.50% 4.50%
USD
17:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.5%
17:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.00% 2.00%
17:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 1.1% 5.4%
17:30 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec) 6.5%
17:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.0% 4.9%
17:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% 3.3%
17:30 USD GDP Sales (Q4) 3.6%
17:30 USD Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.8%
17:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -88.70B -90.27B
17:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 200K 187K
🟥 Crucial Zones: BZ $1990/1985 | SZ 2035/2042
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 Target zone achieved:
USDJPY: BZ 147.000 as projected yesterday at 12.35 hours: achieved | CMP 147.009
🟢 XAUUSD: SZ Target Zone achieved
CMP $2036
SZ projected yesterday at 12.38 hours
USDJPY: BZ 147.000 as projected yesterday at 12.35 hours: achieved | CMP 147.009
🟢 XAUUSD: SZ Target Zone achieved
CMP $2036
SZ projected yesterday at 12.38 hours
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
23.01.2024 | XAUUSD : Price Forecast | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
The yen strengthened on Wednesday as investors firmed up bets that the Bank of Japan will exit stimulus in coming months, while the dollar broadly held its ground against major rivals amid expectations that the Federal Reserve won't rush to cut interest rates.
The Japanese currency gained as much as 0.41% to 147.76 per dollar during Tokyo trading hours as Japanese government bond yields leapt to six-week highs after central bank chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the BOJ's inflation target were gradually increasing.
The yen got an additional tailwind from a pullback in long-term U.S. Treasury yields in Wednesday trading, which the dollar-yen pair tends to track, as traders fine-tuned Fed easing wagers.
The dollar was down 0.3% at 147.90 yen as of 0624 GMT, although its gain for the year is still almost 5% amid lessening expectations of early Fed cuts and, until Tuesday's hawkish tilt, a pushing back of bets for a BOJ stimulus exit.
The U.S. rate futures market on Tuesday priced in a roughly 47% chance of a March rate cut, up from late on Monday, but down from as much 80% about two weeks ago, according to LSEG's rate probability app.
For 2024, futures traders are betting on five quarter-point rate cuts. Two weeks ago they expected six. 🔔
The Japanese currency gained as much as 0.41% to 147.76 per dollar during Tokyo trading hours as Japanese government bond yields leapt to six-week highs after central bank chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the BOJ's inflation target were gradually increasing.
The yen got an additional tailwind from a pullback in long-term U.S. Treasury yields in Wednesday trading, which the dollar-yen pair tends to track, as traders fine-tuned Fed easing wagers.
The dollar was down 0.3% at 147.90 yen as of 0624 GMT, although its gain for the year is still almost 5% amid lessening expectations of early Fed cuts and, until Tuesday's hawkish tilt, a pushing back of bets for a BOJ stimulus exit.
The U.S. rate futures market on Tuesday priced in a roughly 47% chance of a March rate cut, up from late on Monday, but down from as much 80% about two weeks ago, according to LSEG's rate probability app.
For 2024, futures traders are betting on five quarter-point rate cuts. Two weeks ago they expected six. 🔔
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢 Co-relation in perfect proportion:
USDJPY (-) 0.70% CMP 147.160
XAUUSD (+) 0.70% CMP 2035
USDJPY (-) 0.70% CMP 147.160
XAUUSD (+) 0.70% CMP 2035
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
1000 pips crash witnessed in USDJPY | Pending impact on XAUUSD: +$30
RT USDJPY + = XAUUSD -
RT USDJPY + = XAUUSD -
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
USDJPY and XAUUSD I expect correction/rally at or before 6.30 PM today, I will avoid big lots till then.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 BoJ to maintain the status quo and remain dovish
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Tuesday, January 23 The BoJ will release its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, i.e. its Outlook Report at the same time.
No tweak in the Yield Curve Control (YCC) and no change in easy monetary policy are anticipated by market participants as recent events put the BoJ in a difficult spot to advocate any significant shift in its ultra-easy monetary stance.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Tuesday, January 23 The BoJ will release its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, i.e. its Outlook Report at the same time.
No tweak in the Yield Curve Control (YCC) and no change in easy monetary policy are anticipated by market participants as recent events put the BoJ in a difficult spot to advocate any significant shift in its ultra-easy monetary stance.