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GARCH Improved Nelder Mead MT5

Introduction to GARCH Improved Nelder Mead Algorithm

GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model building. However, the original Nelder Mead’s method occasionally misses convergence and therefore, we improved the original Nelder Mead method by incorporating intermediate ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) step before GARCH step.


How to use GARCH INM predictor for trading

The whole purpose of GARCH INM predictor is to improve trading performance. Here are few tips.

  1. Our GARCH INM predictor uses point as basic unit. Therefore, the predicted volatility can provide trader scalable idea on future volatility. For example, if GARCH predicted 1120 point (112 pips) for current candle with 95% confidence interval, then you might expect that there is 95% of chance for current market to stay within the 112 pips range.

  2. Detecting anomaly market is also another important function with GARCH. If price range for current market moved outside the predicted volatility (95% confidence interval), then this is the anomaly event with 5% Probability to occur.

  3. Volatility has very close connection to trend. Increasing volatility often tell you start of trend. Filtering out range market using our GARCH INM predictor, you can aim to enter trend market.


Mathematical Description of GARCH

GARCH INM predictor uses standard GARCH (1, 1) model. Its mathematical description is simply relating the variance of time series to previous variance and previous squared return. In mathematical notation, this would be:

Variance at t = omega + alpha * squared return at t-1 + beta * Variance at t-1

Where time series return y at t = mean + error and t = time


Description for input parameters

  • NumberOfObs: Number of observations (data point) to be used for calculation. We recommend minimum 1000 data point.
  • UseHighLow: With use of High-Low mode (true), the range is calculated using high – low. If UseHighLow = false, then close – previous close will be used to calculate range. We recommend using default for your trading.
  • ConfidenceInterval: Confidence Interval for GARCH prediction. We provide 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. This confidence interval provides you probabilistic sense for future market range.
  • SafetyFactor: Safety Factor is added for extra safety of trading operation. Safety Factor should be greater than 1. If Safety Factor = 1, then the predicted volatility is equal to original GARCH volatility. If Safety Factor = 1.5, then the predicted volatility will have 50% safe margin over the original GARCH volatility.


Note about GARCH Nelder Mead

This GARCH indictor is an attemp to bring advanced scientific method in real world trading application. Parameter estimation of GARCH algorithm is notably difficult and misleading even among experienced statisticians. Here we give the self optimizing GARCH algorithm for enthusiastic Scientific minded traders. Please enjoy this free but powerful trading system. If GARCH parameter is within acceptable accuracy to its true parameters, then you can have really powerful volatility predition tool for your strategy.


Advanced Tools for your Day Trading


Educational Books for your Day Trading

1. Profitable Chart Patterns in Forex and Stock Market

2. Scientific Guide to Price Action and Pattern Trading


Important Note

This product is the off the shelf product in the store. Therefore, we do not take any personal modification or personal customization request. For our products, we do not provide any code library or any support for your coding.


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** NEW PLUTUS SIGNALS and ALL IN ONE ** Plutus Long and Short trading signals added (for more infor visit    http://www.tradethevolumewaves.com   Different Wave Types can be sellected. Choose what your cumulative Histogram diplays: Volume, Pips, Progressive Volume Rate, Time or Emphasized Volume Waves ** IF YOU PURCHASE DO NOT FORGET TO CONTACT ME BECAUSE THERE IS MORE. Free, two hour, one to one webinar covering setup , methodology and Q&A on any lifetime purchase. How to trade with it:   ht
499 USD
Channels Indicator MT5
Channels Indicator MT5
Ahmed Alaaeldin Abdulrahman Ahmed Elherzawi
Channels indicator does not repaint as its based on projecting the falling and raising channels. As a trader you need a path to be able to place your buy and sell trades such as: Supply and Demand , Falling & raising channels. Falling and raising channels can be in any time frame and also can be in all time frames at the same time and the price always flows within these channels. Experienced trades will draw the key levels and channels around the time frames. But, they will not be able to draw
50 USD
Synthethic Savages Alert for Volatility Indexes
Synthethic Savages Alert for Volatility Indexes
Ziggy Janssen
*Non-Repainting Indicator Arrow Indicator with Push Notification based on the Synthethic Savages strategy for synthethic indices on binary broker. Signals will only fire when the Synthethic Savages Strategy Criteria is met BUT MUST be filtered. Best Signals on Fresh Alerts after our Savage EMA's Cross. Synthethic Savage Alerts is an indicator that shows entry signals with the trend. A great tool to add to any chart.  Best Signals occur on Fresh Alerts after our Savage EMA's Cross + Signal
1 950 USD
Trend Finder Multi Pair And Multi Time Frame
Trend Finder Multi Pair And Multi Time Frame
ScorpionFX
(FOR MT5)  Trend Finder Multi Pair And Multi Time Frame :   This indicator has been designed to help find the strongest trends in the forex market, quickly and easily. It simultaneously analyzes the moving averages for all 28 pairs and across 8 time-frames. And then it ranks each pair according to trend-strength. IMPORTANT FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND: Institutional traders use moving averages more than any other indicator. And trading with the dominant trend is a CRITICAL part of your long term s
79 USD
Supply Demand RSJ PRO
Supply Demand RSJ PRO
JETINVEST
The indicator Supply Demand RSJ PRO calculates and plots the "Supply" and "Demand" zones on the graph, identifying the type of Zone (Weak, Strong, Verified, Proven) and in case of retests of the Zone it shows how many times it was retested. "Supply" Zones are the price zones where more supply than demand has occurred, driving prices down. "Demand" Zones are the price zones where more demand than supply has occurred, pushing prices up. Classification of zones Weak: Price region which, if re-te
77 USD
Trend Influencer MT5
Trend Influencer MT5
Denys Babiak
Description Trend Influencer is an indicator that determines the potential dynamics of the influence of trend wave movements on the market. The indicator is based on the value of moving averages corrected by the standard deviation. The indicator is displayed as a main dash-dotted moving average and a signal solid moving average. The signal moving average is colored blue or red depending on what type of trend is currently observed in the market. The indicator also draws inhibition levels - blue
50 USD
Levels of support or resistance by Gerchik
Levels of support or resistance by Gerchik
Vitaliy Polishchuk
The indicator for the detection of the local resistance/support levels for the trend breakout/rollback trading. With the help of this indicator the matches of the Low/High prices are found, which allows to identify a large order placed by a moneymaker. Once the level is found, a signal is generated, the local resistance or support level is underlined. You just need to place order to the breakout/rollback from the trend line. Suitable for trading using the Gerchik system. The indicator works on m
60 USD
IQ WD Gann Pivot Point MT5
IQ WD Gann Pivot Point MT5
Somsri Sarkar
VIEW INDICATOR MANUAL Note!  "Arial Bold" font should be installed in your operating system, specially on windows 10 server. Indicator can be applied with all types of instruments including Forex, Stocks, Commodities, Indices, etc. Just adjust the indicator scale accordingly. Metatrader 4 version available Indicator Benefit The indicator is inspired by WD Gann trading style & customized for the modern market with a simplistic approach. It is designed for scalping to day trading. A complete
180 USD
Blahtech Supply Demand MT5
Blahtech Supply Demand MT5
Blahtech Limited
Supply Demand uses previous price action to identify potential imbalances between buyers and sellers. The key is to identify the better odds zones, not just the untouched ones. Blahtech Supply Demand indicator delivers functionality previously unavailable on any trading platform. This 4-in-1 indicator not only highlights the higher probability zones using a multi-criteria strength engine, but also combines it with multi-timeframe trend analysis, previously confirmed swings and engulfing detector
124 USD
Weis Wave
Weis Wave
Sergey Mylnikov
The indicator displays the total or average volume in the price movement. Due to this, it is easy to determine the demand and supply in the market, turning points. It works in any Forex markets, futures, stocks.  It does not redraw, the construction algorithm allows you to work with any instrument on any timeframe, regardless of the volatility "without adjustment to the instrument." The ideas from the books of David Weiss  "A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method" and Timothy Orda  "The_Secret
53 USD
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Pair Trading Station MT4
Pair Trading Station MT4
Young Ho Seo
How to use Pair Trading Station Pair Trading Station is recommended for H1 time frame and you can use it for any currency pairs. To generate buy and sell signal, follow few steps below to apply Pair Trading Station to your MetaTrader terminal. When you load Pair Trading Station on your chart, Pair Trading station will assess available historical data in your MetaTrader platforms for each currency pair. On your chart, the amount of historical data available will be displayed for each currency pai
280 USD
Advanced Price Pattern Scanner MT4
Advanced Price Pattern Scanner MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction Advanced Price Pattern Scanner is the pattern scanner built upon our accumulative knowledge and insight from our financial market research many years. Advanced Price Pattern Scanner uses highly sophisticated pattern detection algorithm. However, we have designed it in the easy to use and intuitive manner. Advanced Price Pattern Scanner will show all the patterns in your chart in the most efficient format for your trading. Detectable Patterns Following pattern can be detected. Tri
180 USD
Double Harmonic Volatility Indicator MT5
Double Harmonic Volatility Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
Use of the Fibonacci analysis for financial trading can nearly go back to 85 years from today since the birth of Elliott Wave Theory by R. N. Elliott. Until now, traders use the Fibonacci analysis to identify the patterns in the price series. Yet, we could not find any one attempted to use Fibonacci analysis for the Volatility. Harmonic Volatility Indicator was the first technical analysis applying the Fibonacci analysis to the financial Volatility. Originally, Harmonic Volatility Indicator was
60 USD
Pair Trading Station MT5
Pair Trading Station MT5
Young Ho Seo
How to use Pair Trading Station Pair Trading Station is recommended for H1 time frame and you can use it for any currency pairs. To generate buy and sell signal, follow few steps below to apply Pair Trading Station to your MetaTrader terminal. When you load Pair Trading Station on your chart, Pair Trading station will assess available historical data in your MetaTrader platforms for each currency pair. On your chart, the amount of historical data available will be displayed for each currency pai
280 USD
Ace Supply Demand Zone MT5
Ace Supply Demand Zone MT5
Young Ho Seo
About Ace Supply Demand Zone Indicator The concept of supply demand trading rely on the quantity mismatching between buying and selling volumes in financial markets. Supply and demand zone serves as the good entry in our trading. It provides you the detailed trading plan + the risk management. Its ability to predict market direction is high. There are two distinctive points about Ace Supply Demand Zone Indicator. Firstly, Ace Supply Demand Zone indicator was built on the non-repainting and non
100 USD
Equilibrium Fractal Wave Analytics MT4
Equilibrium Fractal Wave Analytics MT4
Young Ho Seo
EFW Analytics was designed to accomplish the statement "We trade because there are regularities in the financial market". EFW Analytics is a set of tools designed to maximize your trading performance by capturing the repeating fractal geometry, known as the fifth regularity in the financial market. The functionality of EFW Analytics consists of three parts including: Equilibrium Fractal Wave Index: exploratory tool to support your trading logic to choose which ratio to trade Superimposed Pattern
200 USD
Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner MT4
Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction The present state of Forex market can go through many different possible price paths to reach its future destination. Future is dynamic. Therefore, planning your trade with possible future scenario is an important step for your success. To meet such a powerful concept, we introduce the Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner, the first predictive Harmonic Pattern Tool in the world among its kind. Main Features Predicting future patterns for scenario analysis 11 Harmonic Pattern Detec
100 USD
Elliott Wave Trend MT4
Elliott Wave Trend MT4
Young Ho Seo
Elliott Wave Trend was designed for the scientific wave counting. This tool focuses to get rid of the vagueness of the classic Elliott Wave Counting using the guideline from the template and pattern approach. In doing so, firstly Elliott Wave Trend offers the template for your wave counting. Secondly, it offers Wave Structural Score to assist to identify accurate wave formation. It offers both impulse wave Structural Score and corrective wave Structure Score. Structural Score is the rating to sh
200 USD
Turning Point Detector MT4
Turning Point Detector MT4
Young Ho Seo
The trajectories of Financial Market movement are very much like the polynomial curvatures with the presence of random fluctuations. It is quite common to read that scientist can decompose the financial data into many different cyclic components. If or any if the financial market possess at least one cycle, then the turning point must be present for that financial market data. With this assumption, most of financial market data should possesses the multiple of turning points because they consist
80 USD
Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner MT5
Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction The present state of Forex market can go through many different possible price paths to reach its future destination. Future is dynamic. Therefore, planning your trade with possible future scenario is an important step for your success. To meet such a powerful concept, we introduce the Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner, the first predictive Harmonic Pattern Tool in the world among its kind. Main Features Predicting future patterns for scenario analysis 11 Harmonic Pattern Detec
100 USD
Excessive Momentum Indicator MT5
Excessive Momentum Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction Excessive Momentum Indicator is the first indicator to measure the excessive momentum directly from raw price series. Hence, this is an extended price action and pattern trading. Excessive Momentum Indicator was originally developed by Young Ho Seo. This indicator demonstrates the concept of Equilibrium Fractal Wave and Practical Application at the same time. Excessive Momentum detects the market anomaly. Excessive momentum will give us a lot of clue about potential reversal and bre
200 USD
Harmonic Pattern Plus MT4
Harmonic Pattern Plus MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction Harmonic Patterns are best used to predict potential turning point. Hence, Harmonic Patterns are the sub patterns of turning point patterns. Traditionally, Harmonic Pattern was identified manually connecting extreme points in charts. Manual harmonic pattern detection is painfully tedious and not suitable for everyone. You are often exposed under subjective pattern identification with manual pattern detection. To avoid these limitations, Harmonic Pattern Plus was designed to automat
98 USD
Fractal Pattern Scanner MT4
Fractal Pattern Scanner MT4
Young Ho Seo
Breakout Trading and Reversal Trading Fractal Pattern Scanner will do the complicated calculation at background. However, it provides simple trading operation. The Mother Wave pattern will provide you breakout trading opportunity. When the price crosses the breakout line, there is a good chance to catch profit from this breakout. The good thing is that it also provides the potential reversal price level as soon as the breakout pattern is detected. In summary, you use breakout for the first prof
220 USD
EFW Pattern Trader MT4
EFW Pattern Trader MT4
Young Ho Seo
EFW Pattern Trader is a Powerful Pattern Scanner for your trading. The main pattern detection methods in this software follows the principle of Equilibrium Fractal Wave (EFW Notation using shape ratio and propagation ratio, original concept created by Young Ho, Seo). Therefore, our EFW Pattern Trader provides an effective pattern detection algorithm. Any patterns in EFW Pattern Trader can be backtested visually in your strategy tester. Visual backtesting with pattern will show you how pattern wi
100 USD
Turning Point Detector MT5
Turning Point Detector MT5
Young Ho Seo
The trajectories of Financial Market movement are very much like the polynomial curvatures with the presence of random fluctuations. It is quite common to read that scientist can decompose the financial data into many different cyclic components. If or any if the financial market possess at least one cycle, then the turning point must be present for that financial market data. With this assumption, most of financial market data should possesses the multiple of turning points because they consist
80 USD
Harmonic Pattern Plus MT5
Harmonic Pattern Plus MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction Harmonic Patterns are best used to predict potential turning point. Hence, Harmonic Patterns are the sub patterns of turning point patterns. Traditionally, Harmonic Pattern was identified manually connecting extreme points in charts. Manual harmonic pattern detection is painfully tedious and not suitable for everyone. You are often exposed under subjective pattern identification with manual pattern detection. To avoid these limitations, Harmonic Pattern Plus was designed to automat
98 USD
Volume Spread Pattern Indicator MT4
Volume Spread Pattern Indicator MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
80 USD
Volume Spread Pattern Indicator MT5
Volume Spread Pattern Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
80 USD
X3 Chart Pattern Scanner MT4
X3 Chart Pattern Scanner MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction to X3 Chart Pattern Scanner X3 Chart Pattern Scanner is the non-repainting and non-lagging indicator detecting X3 chart patterns including Harmonic pattern, Elliott Wave pattern, X3 patterns, and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Historical patterns match with signal patterns. Hence, you can readily develop the solid trading strategy in your chart. More importantly, this superb pattern scanner can detect the optimal pattern of its kind. In addition, you can switch on and off individua
280 USD
Excessive Momentum Indicator MT4
Excessive Momentum Indicator MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction Excessive Momentum Indicator is the first indicator to measure the excessive momentum directly from raw price series. Hence, this is an extended price action and pattern trading. Excessive Momentum Indicator was originally developed by Young Ho Seo. This indicator demonstrates the concept of Equilibrium Fractal Wave and Practical Application at the same time. Excessive Momentum detects the market anomaly. Excessive momentum will give us a lot of clue about potential reversal and bre
200 USD
X3 Chart Pattern Scanner MT5
X3 Chart Pattern Scanner MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction to X3 Chart Pattern Scanner X3 Chart Pattern Scanner is the non-repainting and non-lagging indicator detecting X3 chart patterns including Harmonic pattern, Elliott Wave pattern, X3 patterns, and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Historical patterns match with signal patterns. Hence, you can readily develop the solid trading strategy in your chart. More importantly, this superb pattern scanner can detect the optimal pattern of its kind. In addition, you can switch on and off individua
280 USD
Elliott Wave Trend MT5
Elliott Wave Trend MT5
Young Ho Seo
Elliott Wave Trend was designed for the scientific wave counting. This tool focuses to get rid of the vagueness of the classic Elliott Wave Counting using the guideline from the template and pattern approach. In doing so, firstly Elliott Wave Trend offers the template for your wave counting. Secondly, it offers Wave Structural Score to assist to identify accurate wave formation. It offers both impulse wave Structural Score and corrective wave Structure Score. Structural Score is the rating to sh
200 USD
Mean Reversion Supply Demand MT5
Mean Reversion Supply Demand MT5
Young Ho Seo
Supply Demand with Mean Reversion Concept The concept of supply demand trading rely on the quantity mismatching between buying and selling volumes in financial markets. To typical traders, supply demand zone serves as the turning point. When we looked at its original concept, we have found that the original supply demand trading can be performed better at mean reversion period rather than trend period. For the demonstration of this concept, for any supply demand zone to work as an successful tra
80 USD
Ace Supply Demand Zone MT4
Ace Supply Demand Zone MT4
Young Ho Seo
About Ace Supply Demand Zone Indicator The concept of supply demand trading rely on the quantity mismatching between buying and selling volumes in financial markets. Supply and demand zone serves as the good entry in our trading. It provides you the detailed trading plan + the risk management. Its ability to predict market direction is high. There are two distinctive points about Ace Supply Demand Zone Indicator. Firstly, Ace Supply Demand Zone indicator was built on the non-repainting and non
100 USD
Volume Spread Pattern Detector MT5
Volume Spread Pattern Detector MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
FREE
Fractal Moving Average Indicator MT5
Fractal Moving Average Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
Fractal Moving Average and Fractal Pattern Indicator Fractal Moving Average indicator was designed as part of Fractal Pattern Indicator. Inside Fractal Pattern Indicator, Fractal Moving Average Indicator was implemented as multiple of chart objects. With over thousands of chart object, we find that it was not the best and efficient ways to operate the indicator. It was computationally too heavy for the indicator. Hence, we decide to implement the indicator version of Fractal Moving Average indi
FREE
Volume Spread Pattern Detector MT4
Volume Spread Pattern Detector MT4
Young Ho Seo
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
FREE
Peak Trough Analysis Tool MT5
Peak Trough Analysis Tool MT5
Young Ho Seo
Peak Trough Analysis is the great tool to detect peaks and troughs in your chart. Peak Trough Analysis tool can use three different peaks and troughs detection algorithm. The three algorithm include the orignal Fractals Indicator by Bill Williams, the Modified Fractals indicator and ZigZag indicator. You can use this peak and trough analysis tool to detect the price pattern made up from Equilibrium Fractal-Wave process. For further usage, there are good guide line on how to use this peak trough
FREE
Fractal Moving Average Indicator MT4
Fractal Moving Average Indicator MT4
Young Ho Seo
Fractal Moving Average and Fractal Pattern Indicator Fractal Moving Average indicator was designed as part of Fractal Pattern Indicator. Inside Fractal Pattern Indicator, Fractal Moving Average Indicator was implemented as multiple of chart objects. With over thousands of chart object, we find that it was not the best and efficient ways to operate the indicator. It was computationally too heavy for the indicator. Hence, we decide to implement the indicator version of Fractal Moving Average ind
FREE
Time Box Indicator MT5
Time Box Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
Introduction To Time Box Indicator Time Box Indicator is a must have indicator for any trader. It will display daily, weekly and Monthly box according to your preferences. Yet, you can extend any important price levels in your chart automatically. You can use them as the significant support and resistance levels. It is very simple but effective tool for your trading. Input for Time Box Indicator Graphic Setting Use White Chart Line Style for Current Open price Daily Setting Update Timefra
FREE
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Budyoni Damyanov
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