Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for DAX Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

DAX Index Technical Analysis: daily bearish breakdown; weekly ranging near bearish reversal

Daily price is on breakdown since the middle of the last week: the price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bearish market condition. The price is breaking 9,503.6 support level to below together with descending triangle pattern for the 9,420.8 level as a nearest bearish target for the primary bearish breakdown to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 9,420.8 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 10,100.0 resistance level on close daily bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
9,40.79,503.6
10,100.0
9,420.8


SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : bearish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.21 13:30

DAX Index Technical Analysis: daily breakout with possible bullish reversal (based on the article)

  • "The three-day rally pushed the DAX all the way back to a full neck-line retest of the multi-month H&S formation it broke down from last week. It could soon turn lower from here as a successful retest, but given event risk we will stand aside at this time even if momentum shifts lower and presents an attractive opportunity to enter. Regardless of the outcome, if the DAX moves much higher from here, the H&S formation will be reconfiguring itself, and while the market may still have a bearish stance once the dust settles (lower highs, lower lows from the April high), we may need to operate under a different set of technical constructs."
  • "From a simple support and resistance standpoint, there are several intersecting lines of resistance in the ~10000/100 vicinity; H&S neckline, under-side of the Feb 11 t-line, multi-month horizontal resistance, and the underside of the 2011 t-line (a little higher)."
  • "The 'macro-tech' outlook remains intact; the period from February to April is viewed as a bounce within the broader downward channel off the 2015 highs, with price action since the April high beginning a new leg lower. Until we see the channel broken on the weekly chart, risk remains skewed to the downside."

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Daily price was on breakdown for Ichimoku cloud to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal. For now, the price was bounced from 9,420.0 support level to above for the breakout with the Ichimoku cloud to be crossed to above for the price to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.

If D1 price will break 10,213.5 resistance level on close daily bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : possible bullish reversal

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
106714
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.25 09:47

Brexit - "Investors overreacted," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon said Friday in an email (adapted from the article)


  • Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management: "With last night’s result, that’s certainly unwinding. It caught the consensus on the wrong side yet again. Complacency had crept back into the markets."
  • Bob Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "Falling prices will unveil long-term buying opportunities, particularly for mid- and small-cap stocks. In the short term, markets will trade on emotion, so make sure you don’t end up becoming your portfolio’s worst enemy."
  • Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial: "Look for gold to do well as part of the safe-haven trade in addition to the move into treasuries."
  • JBC Energy analysts: "While we would argue that the British economy and its currency have not really lost 5 to 10% of its relative competitiveness overnight on a sustained basis, the level of uncertainty in the shorter term is definitely very problematic, and bets on any type of reversal do not sound like a good idea to us until the actual effects of last night’s decision become more tangible and quantifiable."
  • U.S. Bank Wealth Management's Wiegand: "In a low-growth environment, uncertainty or increased concerns really do create tremendous volatility."
  • Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments: "One could argue that the U.K. will remain in the EU for a minimum of two years, as formal notice that triggers the two-year countdown to leave most likely won't be given for months, but the markets don't wait. Instead, they are concerned about a disintegration of the EU, (and) they are concerned about a waning influence of the U.S. over the EU."

Dax Index - daily bearish breakdown, weekly bearish reversal:

  • Daily price broke 9420.0 support level on open D1 bar to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. If the price breaks this level to below on close D1 bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish.
  • Weekly price is testing 9420.0 support level to below to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price will be turned onto the long-term bearish condition by this level to be broken to below on close weekly bar for example.





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