USDJPY Technical Analysis 2015, 03.05 - 10.05: Daily Breakout Reversal to Primary Bullish Trend with 120.28 Resistance and 122.02 Key Resistance Levels - page 2
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.06 14:52
2015-05-06 13:15 GMT (or 15:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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"Private-sector employment increased by 169,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis."
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USDJPY M5: 32 pips price movement by USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.07 07:49
Forex technical analysis: USDJPY corrects back to 200 hour MA (based on forexlive article)
Like the EURUSD, the USDJPY is back up testing the 200 hour MA at 119.46 (green line in the chart below). The 50% of the move up from April 30 is at 119.49. This was support earlier today. What was support becomes resistance. So I would expect traders to lean against the MA on the first look. A move above could take some of the selling fear out of the market. Look for traders to shift allegiance on a move above 119.50.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.07 15:37
Goldman Sachs - FX markets appear to 'throwing a tantrum' (based on forexlive article)
In a research note to clients, Goldman Sachs say data will improve and the USD selloff will reverse:
"After the perfect storm in March -- a dovish Fed and weak payrolls -- price action around last week's GDP disappointment was a howl of disapproval, something akin to the 'The Scream' by Edvard Munch. Foreign-exchange markets appear to be throwing a 'tantrum.'"
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.08 07:04
USD/JPY Awaiting the US NFP Report to Break Out (based on forexminute article)
The USD/JPY continues to trade within a consolidation range that began at the end of March, roughly between 120.84 and 118.50. Last week, a bullish attempt failed to reach the 120.84 high, and USD/JPY retreated back to the middle of this range ahead of tomorrow’s (Friday’s) US NFP jobs report.
The 4H chart shows a very tentative market that is now hugging the central pivot of the above-mentioned consolidation range. This is where the market is “comfortable” given the current fundamentals. Specifically, the general expectation of the FOMC, is that it will raise rates around September, a delay from the plan earlier in the year to raise rates by June.
The FOMC wants to see more improvement in the labor market before raising rates. The last 2 weeks of jobless claims data have been pointing in the right direction, but the US NFP is the most important indicator of job growth. Earlier this week, we saw disappointing ADP NFP jobs report, which some see as a predictor of the NFP, albeit not a very reliable one. Still, the market is holding off USD-strength because it has some doubts whether the NFP will meet forecast of a 227K print after a soft 162K reading for March.
We should monitor USD/JPY’s reaction after the jobs report. A break above 120.81 would likely put the high on the year around 122 in sight. A break below 118.50 will likely keep USD/JPY in the multi-month consolidation seen in the daily chart.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.08 07:15
Goldman Sachs sees upside risks in nonfarm payrolls despite soft ADP (based on forexlive article)
Goldman Sachs sees nonfarm payrolls matching the 230K consensus estimate, despite just 169K jobs in Wednesday's ADP employment report.
"While labor market indicators were mixed in April, the employment components of service sector surveys were strong and better weather conditions should provide a boost. In addition, we see some upside risk to our forecast from a calendar effect," they wrote.
The market is likely priced below the 230K consensus, somewhere closer to 200K, so a stronger reading would give the US dollar a lift.
"We expect the unemployment rate to decline by one-tenth to 5.4% and average hourly earnings to rise 0.2%," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.