EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, May: Bearish with Weekly Rally and Monthly Ranging with 1.0461 Key Support Level - page 2
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W1 price is is located on the primary bearish with the market rally and 1.1240 resistance level for trying to be broken on open W1 bar for now:
- Ichimoku cloud/kumo with Sinkou Span A line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the
primary
bearish on the chart) are above the price and too far from it for any possible reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the bullish market condition in May 2015.
- Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku which is indicating the primary bearish.
- The price is ranging between 1.1240 resistance and 1.0461 support level
- The local uptrend as the secondary market rally is going to be started: the triangle pattern was broken by the price from below to above with 1.1240 resistance level for trying to be crossed on open W1 bar.
- Chinkou
Span line is below the price and showing the local uptrend by the direction
- Nearest support levels are 1.0520 (W1) and 1.0461 (W1)
- Nearest resistance levels are 1.1051 (W1) and 1.1240 (W1)
If W1 price will break 1.0461 support level on close W1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuingIf W1 price will break 1.1240 resistance level so we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally to be started
If not so the price will be ranging between 1.0461 and 1.1240 levels with primary bearish
W1 price broke 1.1240 resistance level and bear market rally is started within the primary bearish (but for open W1 bar for now sorry). Next resistance level (next top) for now is 1.1289:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.05 14:58
2015-05-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $51.4 billion in March, up $15.5 billion from $35.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $187.8 billion, $1.6 billion more than February exports. March imports were $239.2 billion, $17.1 billion more than February imports.
The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $14.9 billion to $70.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $19.2 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $6.4 billion, or 5.2 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $11.7 billion or 2.0 percent. Imports decreased $5.3 billion or 0.8 percent."
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.05
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EURUSD M5: 52 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.05 19:36
Euro off lows after EC forecasts (based on investing.com article)
The euro backed away from session lows on Tuesday after the European Commission raised its growth forecast for the euro zone this year, as investors looked ahead to U.S. data on service sector activity and trade later in the day.
EUR/USD was at 1.1119, still down 0.24% for the day, after falling to lows of 1.1066 earlier.
In its quarterly forecasts the EC said it now expects the euro zone economy to grow to 1.5% in 2015 up from 1.3% three months ago.
The Commission also revised up its forecast for inflation this year to 0.1% from its earlier forecast for a decline of 0.1% and said it expects inflation of 1.5% in 2015 up from 1.3%.
But it slashed its forecast for Greek economic growth to just 0.5% this year down from 2.5% previously and warned that the recovery has stalled since snap elections at the end of last year.
The euro remained under pressure following media reports that the International Monetary Fund pushed the euro zone to cut Greece’s debt burden last month, amid fears that its debt is becoming unsustainable.
Athens is scrambling to reach an agreement with its creditors on a package of economic reforms for more bailout funds before it runs out of cash.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.06 10:44
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Eyeing Support Below 1.10 (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower against the US Dollar may be in the cards. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0982 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.0793. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.1271 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 1.1519.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.06 14:14
Non-farm Payrolls (based on forexlive article)Goldman Sachs analyst say "the best spots to buy the US dollar are against the euro, yen and Canadian dollar on expectations of an upward surprise".
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.08
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EURUSD M5: 89 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.06 14:52
2015-05-06 13:15 GMT (or 15:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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"Private-sector employment increased by 169,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis."
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.06
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EURUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
W1 price broke 1.1240 resistance level and bear market rally is started within the primary bearish (but for open W1 bar for now sorry). Next resistance level (next top) for now is 1.1289:
The price is breaking 1.1289 resistance on open W1 bar for now:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.07 07:54
EURUSD rotates toward broken trend line (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD has rotated lower after the surge higher. The pair is down testing the broken trend line on the 4- hour chart. That level comes in at 1.1326.
A move back below is needed to show the sellers are taking back some control. Risk defining level for dip buyers (stop below 1.1317 (50% of the last trend leg higher).
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.07 15:37
Goldman Sachs - FX markets appear to 'throwing a tantrum' (based on forexlive article)
In a research note to clients, Goldman Sachs say data will improve and the USD selloff will reverse:
"After the perfect storm in March -- a dovish Fed and weak payrolls -- price action around last week's GDP disappointment was a howl of disapproval, something akin to the 'The Scream' by Edvard Munch. Foreign-exchange markets appear to be throwing a 'tantrum.'"