Do you also feel that technical analysis is losing ground to news, particularly this year?

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I’ve been trading for eight years, and it wasn’t until this year that I started to feel that news is much more significant and relevant than before.

Until last year, when I was trading manually, I relied almost 100% on technical analysis. Obviously, there were always important news events, but in recent months I feel like they can completely turn any market reading on its head in a matter of minutes—even throwing all kinds of predictions completely off course.


And honestly, that worries me quite a bit.


I’d like to know if those of you who’ve been doing this longer than I have have experienced similar periods, where news and fundamental factors dominated the market to such an extent.

How long have you been trading?

Have you seen periods like this before?

 

I had the same impression and put it against eleven years of my own index book, six setups on DAX, FTSE, Dow and Nasdaq, 2,949 trading days. The fifty strongest trend days carried a calendar event on the day or the day before in 34 percent of cases against a base rate of 29 percent, so the big directional days were not the news days. What the calendar did change was the quality of the session. On FOMC days my US book made -0.10 R per day against +3.03 on quiet days, and on CPI days the European session deteriorated with the chop quota going from 10.9 to 16.4 percent. Payrolls was the only release that came out positive for me. So my reading is not that news replaced structure, it is that news days are worse days to apply structure to, and the calendar earns its keep as a reason to stay out rather than as a reason to trade. Whether this year differs from the eleven I measured I cannot tell you from that data.

 
Juan Andres Ruiz:

I’ve been trading for eight years, and it wasn’t until this year that I started to feel that news is much more significant and relevant than before.

Until last year, when I was trading manually, I relied almost 100% on technical analysis. Obviously, there were always important news events, but in recent months I feel like they can completely turn any market reading on its head in a matter of minutes—even throwing all kinds of predictions completely off course.


And honestly, that worries me quite a bit.


I’d like to know if those of you who’ve been doing this longer than I have have experienced similar periods, where news and fundamental factors dominated the market to such an extent.

How long have you been trading?

Have you seen periods like this before?

Trading News is like riding a bull in a rodeo, you better strap in because its going to be a hell of a ride.

Only difference, the bull rider gets the girls and the boots and the hat. A bit bow-legged too maybe...

 

You trade news you lose is a mantra for a reason . 

What I will say though is The Donald and his buddies have been romping in the billions with the aid of tweets  these past few years and it seems to be getting ramped up as his time runs down . 

 
Timon-pascal Krueger #:

I had the same impression and put it against eleven years of my own index book, six setups on DAX, FTSE, Dow and Nasdaq, 2,949 trading days. The fifty strongest trend days carried a calendar event on the day or the day before in 34 percent of cases against a base rate of 29 percent, so the big directional days were not the news days. What the calendar did change was the quality of the session. On FOMC days my US book made -0.10 R per day against +3.03 on quiet days, and on CPI days the European session deteriorated with the chop quota going from 10.9 to 16.4 percent. Payrolls was the only release that came out positive for me. So my reading is not that news replaced structure, it is that news days are worse days to apply structure to, and the calendar earns its keep as a reason to stay out rather than as a reason to trade. Whether this year differs from the eleven I measured I cannot tell you from that data.

Hi, Timon... Phew! It must be great to have you as a friend, haha... Did you really do all that analysis?? That's brilliant! 👏
And I totally get your point and agree. It’s not like before, when you could technically take advantage of a news story. These days, when news breaks, it’s better to get out—or at least that’s how I’m interpreting what you’re saying. Is that your take on it? 
And sorry to ask, but you mentioned a book you wrote on indices… what book is that? Can you share it?
 
Thomas Olof Gardling #:

Trading News is like riding a bull in a rodeo, you better strap in because its going to be a hell of a ride.

Only difference, the bull rider gets the girls and the boots and the hat. A bit bow-legged too maybe...

Hahahaha... that's great!! That's how it is, buddy... Anyway, the rider gets to keep the girls, the boots, and the hat—as long as the bull doesn't manage to crush his head 😂
 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:

You trade news you lose is a mantra for a reason . 

What I will say though is The Donald and his buddies have been romping in the billions with the aid of tweets  these past few years and it seems to be getting ramped up as his time runs down . 

Hi, Victor. It’s unbelievable!! We talk about this practically every day in a community I share with other traders. It’s no longer just the news (which is normal) and then traders jumping in based on their analysis and predictions. 
Ever since the era of Mr. Trump and his cronies, the news has been designed to create FOMO, only for the exact opposite to happen later so that they’re the only ones who benefit. 

Well, did you hear about what was made public last month, I think—about that select group of people who, if they pay—I don’t know how many hundreds of millions—get privileged access to the news? Like a kind of VIP access, haha…
I know it’s always existed… but making it public was just too much!! It’s shamelessness without limits, haha
 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:
What I will say though is The Donald and his buddies have been romping in the billions with the aid of tweets  these past few years and it seems to be getting ramped up as his time runs down .
Yes. In fact, that actually was the news yesterday on public radio. DonTheCon, without factoring in anyone else, has made one billion USD in crypto alone since January of 2024. And of course, he coined and owns his own crypto instrument.
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