Simple volume condition, different BUY/SELL behaviour? BTCUSD M15 Study
How would you normally validate this kind of volume condition before using it as part of an EA rule?
Consider using a larger sample size with averaging for your comparison of tick volumes:
Thanks, that is a fair point. The first test was only using a very simple candle-to-candle tick volume comparison, mainly to observe whether even a basic measurable condition can separate curve behaviour.
After your suggestion, I also tested an average-normalized version where the signal candle volume is compared against an EMA50 baseline of tick volume. This gives a different type of condition: not just whether volume is higher than the previous candle, but whether it is above its recent average.
So this is basically an example of the difference between the old raw candle-to-candle method and the newer average-based method. I intentionally labeled it only as “New Indicator” on the chart, just to separate the new test version from the existing simple condition.
I am now comparing both versions: raw volume change versus volume above average. The interesting question is whether the apparent BUY/SELL separation remains stable when volume is normalized against its own baseline. That should reduce the risk of reading too much into random candle-to-candle volume noise.
I will test further possibilities across more symbols, timeframes, and entry setups before making any conclusion. For now, this is still only a research observation, not a complete EA rule. I am sharing the comparison result between my previous indicator and new indicator that using Volume Average EMA50 on BTCUSD M30.
Thanks, that is a fair point. The first test was only using a very simple candle-to-candle tick volume comparison, mainly to observe whether even a basic measurable condition can separate curve behaviour.
After your suggestion, I also tested an average-normalized version where the signal candle volume is compared against an EMA50 baseline of tick volume. This gives a different type of condition: not just whether volume is higher than the previous candle, but whether it is above its recent average.
So this is basically an example of the difference between the old raw candle-to-candle method and the newer average-based method. I intentionally labeled it only as “New Indicator” on the chart, just to separate the new test version from the existing simple condition.
I am now comparing both versions: raw volume change versus volume above average. The interesting question is whether the apparent BUY/SELL separation remains stable when volume is normalized against its own baseline. That should reduce the risk of reading too much into random candle-to-candle volume noise.
I will test further possibilities across more symbols, timeframes, and entry setups before making any conclusion. For now, this is still only a research observation, not a complete EA rule. I am sharing the comparison result between my previous indicator and new indicator that using Volume Average EMA50 on BTCUSD M30.
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I was checking a simple volume condition on BTCUSD M15: whether the current tick volume is higher than the previous candle or not.
The interesting part is that the win rate is quite close, around 66%, but the cumulative curves behave differently. Some combinations build up more cleanly, while others spend a long time in negative territory before recovering.
So maybe the final win rate alone does not tell enough. The curve path, drawdown phase, monthly stability, and whether the same behaviour appears in other symbols/timeframes may be more important.
Not saying this is a complete strategy. Just an observation from one simple measurable market condition.
How would you normally validate this kind of volume condition before using it as part of an EA rule?