Live signal or EA backtest? which one you trust?

[[Deleted]]

If you are looking for EA for trading, which you trust? the live signal of the EA that show real trading activity and performance? or the backtest?

[Michael Charles Schefe]

samyhussein:

If you are looking for EA for trading, which you trust? the live signal of the EA that show real trading activity and performance? or the backtest?

i only trust 1 of those -- if -- it is done on same broker and account type as my broker and my account type.

[[Deleted]]

Michael Charles Schefe #:
i only trust 1 of those -- if -- it is done on same broker and account type as my broker and my account type.

Which of them you want to be on same broker and same account type? live signal and live trading performance or backtest?

[Michael Charles Schefe]

Samy.H #:
Which of them you want to be on same broker and same account type? live signal and live trading performance or backtest?

both. If they are on different broker, there are many possible causes for discrepencies between your live trading on a different broker.

If only a backtest is available, then, i would also confirm that the backtest is using ticks and data that is same as the brokers, and not from mq demo. as many brokers use mq demo data for their demo accounts, instead of same as their live data.

If the author or seller will not avail this information, then i will "steer clear" of them. and avoid having any interaction with that seller/author because i can not trust a word from them about any other ea of theirs.

[[Deleted]]

Michael Charles Schefe #:

both. If they are on different broker, there are many possible causes for discrepencies between your live trading on a different broker.

If only a backtest is available, then, i would also confirm that the backtest is using ticks and data that is same as the brokers, and not from mq demo. as many brokers use mq demo data for their demo accounts, instead of same as their live data.

Let's say signal on same broker and account type, and signal doing well using the EA as trading engine for live trading

But the same EA with the same inputs fail in backtest on same account

What you think about it?

[Lee See Hao]

Live signal/forward test on same broker of course

[Michael Charles Schefe]

Samy.H #:

But the same EA with the same inputs fail in backtest on same account

What you think about it?

then you need to ask the author/seller, why. ask them for their backtest settings so you can see same results. And if they do not use every tick based on real ticks, then, tell them they are fake and false idiots, scammers.

[Icham Aidibe]

Samy.H:

If you are looking for EA for trading, which you trust? the live signal of the EA that show real trading activity and performance? or the backtest?

They're more or less equivalent in real ticks mode. Keep in mind that both show you a "past" performance - tomorrow is always a new day and trump is an unpredictable beast 😎

[Alex Holloway]

Samy.H:

If you are looking for EA for trading, which you trust? the live signal of the EA that show real trading activity and performance? or the backtest?

Backtests are just the theory. They show the EA could work under ideal conditions. But markets aren't ideal.

What actually matters is execution in the real world.

So yeah, you check both but NOT Equally.

The backtest is your filter. It tells you if there's even an edge worth looking at.

The live signal is your proof. It shows how that edge survives spreads, slippage, latency, and real market behavior.

If the live performance doesn't resemble the backtest, then the backtest is meaningless. Simple as that.

Trust is earned in live conditions. Not in perfect simulations.

[Victor Paul Hamilton]

Live signals are a lottery ,Back Tests are trash , In the moment trading what's in front of you and managing your money varying lot sizes , going back into trading only with profits ( only risking profits ) ,that is the game most can't play because it is boring and hard work and patience . 

[Ryan L Johnson]

Victor Paul Hamilton #:
Back Tests are trash...

Only if you don't know how to backtest accurately:

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Raw Code Optimization and Tweaking for Improving Back-Test Results

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Enhance your MQL5 code by optimizing logic, refining calculations, and reducing execution time to improve back-test accuracy. Fine-tune parameters, optimize loops, and eliminate inefficiencies for better performance.

In short, the GIGO principle applies─garbage in = garbage out. As professional floor managers say, the problem is "your code."