Can anyone help me understand in recent months what is happening to the EXPERTS who work on gold because mine no longer work well
Can anyone help me understand the reasons for all this
How? No code, no statistics! Many small loser, some big loser, ...?
Run your EA in the strategy tester in visual mode and compare..
I'm racking my brains to find an explanation for what is happening to excellent experts who in the past have given excellent results on gold because since October 2023 they have completely changed their results.
I'll give you an example, perhaps a little drawn out in the sense that I always operate with very high risk, from October 2022 to March 2023, therefore in six months, my favorite expert with an investment of € 10,000 on 1.10.22 closed on 31.3. .23 with €398,000 while from October 2023 to March 2024 in the same conditions he closed with €78,000. The same expert on a different account with €10,000 from 01.01.2023 to 05.17.2023 closed with 165,000 this year in the same period with €4,120 a real disgrace!!!!
I tried to find the answer by comparing the trend in the two periods of the most common indicators RSI, STOCHASTIC with calibration 5,3,3 and 20,5,5, BB, CCI but I was unable to appreciate significant differences.
Can anyone help me understand the reasons for all this and with what means I can interpret them, also to be able to predict when my dear old experts will be able to give their best again.
Thanks in advance
Good question,
We shouldn't assume one trading system will be consistent always. This particularly hold for non-robust trading systems or EAs.
There can be several answers to your question but the most relevant one is:
When a developer create a trading system, we optimise it. But how this optimization is carried out is a little bit tricky. Usually, the correct approach is to pick a certain period from the whole one, optimise for that shorter period and apply to the backtests of the whole period. In this way you can observe how EA periods out of the optimisation period -a crucial aspect.
If a developer optimise an EA for the recent period or for the whole period, after sometime you use it, the performance can decrease due to alpha decay effect( most recent conditions dominate the overall success and the performance of that EA starts to fall).
You need to re-optimise parameters for the most recent period, or re-optimise it yourself with the correct approach...
Do you know how to do it?
Evren
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I'll give you an example, perhaps a little drawn out in the sense that I always operate with very high risk, from October 2022 to March 2023, therefore in six months, my favorite expert with an investment of € 10,000 on 1.10.22 closed on 31.3. .23 with €398,000 while from October 2023 to March 2024 in the same conditions he closed with €78,000. The same expert on a different account with €10,000 from 01.01.2023 to 05.17.2023 closed with 165,000 this year in the same period with €4,120 a real disgrace!!!!
I tried to find the answer by comparing the trend in the two periods of the most common indicators RSI, STOCHASTIC with calibration 5,3,3 and 20,5,5, BB, CCI but I was unable to appreciate significant differences.
Can anyone help me understand the reasons for all this and with what means I can interpret them, also to be able to predict when my dear old experts will be able to give their best again.
Thanks in advance