The price was on bearish ranging market condition with the secondary market rally which was started in the end of last week.
Daily EURUSD price is breaking 1.0848 resistance level and Sinkou Span A
line for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to
the bullish market condition.
D1 price is on primary bearish with secondary bear market rally
with good possibility to reversal:
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0461
(W1) support level and 1.1051 & 1.1395 (W1) resistance levels
is on bearish breakdown with 1.0461 support levelIf D1 price will break 1.0531
support level on close D1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuingIf D1 price will break 1.0848 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish
condition with secondary ranging (the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo in this case)If not so the price will be ranging between 1.0848 and 1.0531 levels with primary bearish
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-04-27 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Import Prices]
2015-04-28 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
2015-04-29 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2015-04-29 19:30 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2015-04-30 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
2015-04-30 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish CPI]
2015-04-30 08:55 GMT (or 10:55 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]
2015-04-30 10:00 GMT (or 12:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
2015-04-30 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2015-05-01 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2015-05-01 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
SUMMARY : rangingTREND : bear market rally
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.04.24 05:52
EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Goldman Sachs (based on fxnews article)
Goldman Sachs updates its outlook on EUR/USD and USD/JPY noticing
that the latest messages form the ECB and BoJ seem to be 'lost in
translation'. The following are the key points in GS' note along with
its latest forecasts for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
1- "When central banks are implementing QE – as the ECB and Bank of Japan clearly are – they deliver two basic messages. First,
they comment on whether the current pace of asset purchases is still
appropriate and, when it isn’t, they provide more accommodation, as the
BoJ did in October. Second, because QE is controversial, they
sing the praises of asset purchases, pointing to rising inflation
expectations and an improving growth picture," GS argues.
2- "We think this is what happened towards the end of the ECB
press conference on Apr. 15, when President Draghi made favorable
comments on the inflation and growth picture. The market heard exit, but
in our view this is a clear case of “lost in translation." GS adds.
3- "After all, President Draghi earlier in the press
conference argued forcefully that focus on early exit is premature and
that having this debate now is like “quitting a marathon after 1k.” Our
European economists continue to expect “full implementation” of ECB QE,
meaning an unchanged pace of asset purchases through at least Sep. 2016.
This is key to our view that a cyclical recovery in the Euro zone is
not a force for EUR/USD higher," GS clarifies.
4- "There was more “lost in translation” in Governor Kuroda’s speech on Apr. 19. The
market picked up headlines that “the underlying trend of inflation has
improved markedly,” but the more important message in the speech, in our
opinion, is that low inflation momentum is threatening to pull
inflation expectations lower (Exhibit 4), which will then set the stage
for additional monetary easing," GS notes.
5 "Our Japan Chief Economist forecasts additional
stimulus for July by way of duration extension of JGB purchases (akin to
"Operation Twist" in the US). Given how small speculative long
$/JPY positioning now is, we think there is room for the market to catch
up with real story in Japan, which is that another round of monetary
easing is coming," GS adds.
GS targets EUR/USD at 1.00 in 6-months and USD/JPY at 125 over the same end of period.
newdigital, 2015.04.25 09:17
The Biggest EURUSD Resistance Test of the Year ( based on dailyfx article)
“EURUSD rolled over at slope resistance but several longer term
technical observations are worthy of note; the rate found low at an
important long term level (line off of 2008 and 2010 lows) and the
ownership profile (as per COT) is at a record. The speculative crowd has
never been more bearish…ever. Such conditions typically precede
important reversals…although not necessarily right away. A break above
the resistance lines (old support) would indicate that behavior has
significantly changed and open up a run on 1.13.” It is decision time
newdigital, 2015.04.27 14:26
A Goldman Sachs EUR/USD Elliot Wave view (based on forexlive article)
"The market came close to testing 1.0911-1.0914
- 76.4% retrace of the Apr. 6th/13th drop and
76.4% of the swing target from Apr. 13th:
"If this is truly a wider/extended triangle,
then it suits the underlying view that there is still one last leg lower
to complete the 5-wave decline
This is reversal from the primary bearish to the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging.
newdigital, 2015.04.26 13:01
EURUSD forecast for the week of April 27, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EURUSD pair
initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support
to turn things back around and form a hammer. However, we recognize that
the 1.10 level above is still resistive, so therefore it’s difficult to
take a longer-term trade. In fact, we are comfortable with longer-term
trades until we are well above the 1.15 level, which is something that
we are obviously not going to see anytime soon. With that, we remain on
the sidelines as far as long-term trades are concerned, but will pay
attention to the shorter-term daily chart.
newdigital, 2015.04.28 14:12
EUR/USD Testing Resistance (based on investing.com article)
EURUSD: Seeking the high 1.09s before down. The near-term grind
higher is still on; now testing resistance at the low end of the
descending 55 day exponentially weighted moving average band
(1.09151.1035). While short-term dynamic support at the flat "Kijun-Sen"
(1.0775) remains intact additional gains into the high-1.09s is the
best fit. but once there look for near-term bearish signals to take
advantage of. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0790 and
Spot gold: On the lookout for a +$1,211 break.
The biggest single-day gainer since late Jan must count for
something.It now looks quite clear that the decline from the early Apr
high of 1,224 is, or rather was,a correctional descent. All that is
needed now is a +1.211 break to confirm this and to allow extension to
and through resistance at 1,22426. A short-term "Equality point" hints
that 1.257 is the next attraction/resistance to align aim at. Current
intraday stretches are located at 1,185 and 1,209.
Brent Crude: Could recheck the $62-level before.
The short-term bullish wave structure remains incomplete though it is
still valid. If the recent sellers' response leads to near-term bearish
initiative below mid-body support at 63.90; pencil in decline closer to
dynamic support, now starting at 62.00. A sub-60.70 overlap is however
not ideally wished for since it would complicate the wave count more.
S&P500: Bearish print on top.
The short-term "equality point" at 2,121 held buyers at bay with
sellers' response being strong there. The bearish print as a result
points lower near-term (with short-term momentum indicators running at
rich levels indicating an overstretch) and the ascending 8 day
"Tenkan-Sen", now at 2,092, could be retested - but a buyers' response
there (or no later than at 2,080) is likely. Current intraday stretches
are located at 2,090 and 2,121.
newdigital, 2015.04.28 18:02
EURUSD extends above next hurdle. What next? (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD had a bit of up and down time of it as the NY session got underway, but the support level held (see earlier post) against the 1.0915-25 area.
newdigital, 2015.04.29 08:36
EUR/USD Forecast April 29, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke
higher during the course of the session on Tuesday, heading towards the
1.10 level. This is an area that we should see quite a bit of
resistance at, and with the Federal Reserve having its interest-rate
announcement and more importantly, the interest rate statement during
the session today, it’s very likely that we will have a catalyst for the
next move in this pair. Because of this, we believe that it’s only a
matter of time before the sellers step in, but we recognize that a move
above the 1.12 level would change everything. It is very possible that
we get some type of extraordinary move during the session. We believe
this move will dictate where the market goes next.
newdigital, 2015.04.29 14:48
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 29, 2015.
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.04.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 65 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event
newdigital, 2015.04.29 21:00
Federal Reserve policymakers see weakness in US economy (based on afr.com article)
The Federal Reserve pointed to weakness in the US labour market and
economy, in a sign that the central bank is struggling to proceed with
its plans to raise interest rates this year.
"The committee anticipates that it
will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds
rate when it has seen further improvement in the labour market and is
reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 per cent
objective over the medium term," the Fed said in its statement, following a two-day meeting of its policy-setting committee.
April: The Fed has taken a gloomier view of the economy: "Economic
growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory
factors. The pace of job gains moderated ... Growth in household
March: "Information received since the (Fed) met in January suggests
that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions
have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment
EURUSD M5: 72 pips price movemment by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event