Looking for patterns - page 303
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Any research is just the INITIAL STEP...
Next is the development of a THEORY...
And confirmation of this theory by LONG-TERM TESTS...
A few years of research is nothing to talk about... The WORK must be seen through to the end...
Seconded! Except ... LONG-TERM TESTS...
The scope and duration of tests depends on the THEORY/METHODE of testing, and the technical feasibility. Testing as well as 'combat' testing simply has to be credible. It's self-defeating)
Seconded! Except... LONG-TERM TESTS...
The scope and duration of tests depends on the THEORY/METHODE of testing, and the technical feasibility. Testing as well as 'combat' testing simply has to be credible. It's self-defeating).
Why this condition: long-term tests...?
If you look closely at some charts, e.g. euro/bucks, you can note that the price has been moving in the same trend for TWO YEARS at a time...
That is, you can open two years ONLY in one direction, and you will be constantly in the plus...
Naturally, on such plots TEST less than two years will not give a REAL result when testing the strategy ...
But generally correct - there should be an OPTIMAL approach to testing...
Any science must rely on empirical reality for background information in constructing a deductive or inductive theory, and must be tested and validated at the empirical level.
О!
In the stages of obtaining empirical reality and especially - confirmation at the empirical level - statistical methods are appropriate.
In between these stages, it is appropriate to just think with the brain. This is about constructing a deductive, or inductive model. This is where the search for patterns reigns supreme.
О!
In the stages of obtaining empirical reality and especially - confirmation at the empirical level - statistical methods are appropriate.
In between these stages, it is appropriate to just think with the brain. This is about constructing a deductive, or inductive model. This is where the search for patterns reigns supreme.
Statistical methods are not a panacea.
9 years and 10 months
Yusuf, I could answer that 2 more months and the golden key is in your pocket, BUT:
Subtract from those years and months the time you did the regression model.
I had a colleague who proved that captains and deputy captains are the most likely to be killed by their own fault among fighter pilots. Air Force Chief Inspector for Flight Safety, Air Marshal Pstygo was indignant, but then he understood the author's arguments and fell in love with him.
And there was regression, parameters - ranks and positions of pilots.
The reasons are obvious, like everything brilliant:
1. An officer receives the rank of captain after 5 years of impeccable service after graduating from the school. By this time, he already considers himself an ace, but he is not one yet. He fights.
2. The norms of covering for deputy officers have been lowered, in order to leave them time to work on their beloved Marxist-Engelsian theory. It beats, too, for nothing more than a deputy officer.
Only these conclusions are no longer regression analysis or statistics, but an interpretation of the results.
There is a slight shift in emphasis. You have to look, of course. But what is there to look for? Some ephemeral pattern? But as it is correctly said above: an apple does not fall on everyone's head. Therefore the results of such search are not predictable. But the search for an effective algorithm for a profitable Expert Advisor that uses the experience of previous generations can more likely produce a positive result. The wheel may be wooden, but if it is profitable, it will do. The main thing is that you can reach financial prosperity faster on it).
I will try to give some more arguments to convince those who disagree that the search for patterns is not the fastest way to market success. Last Sunday evening, I took advantage of free time to do my favorite pastime - creation of another "grail". I simply took one standard indicator from MT4 and used it as a basis for creating signals for entry and exit. I inserted these signals into my Expert Advisor template and ran the 2020 test without any optimization. I consider the result successful. Although, I can still work on decreasing the maximal drawdown and reinvestment. What would happen if I started searching for the market behavior? I think I would not have made it in just one evening. You can spend years looking for patterns.
The result of the test.
I will try to give some more arguments to convince those who disagree that searching for patterns is not the fastest way to achieve success in the market. Last Sunday evening I took advantage of free time to do my favourite pastime - creation of another "grail". I simply took one standard indicator from MT4 and used it as a basis for creating signals for entry and exit. I inserted these signals into my Expert Advisor template and ran the 2020 test without any optimization. I consider the result successful. Although, I can still work on decreasing the maximal drawdown and reinvestment. What would happen if I started searching for the market behavior? I think I would not have made it in just one evening. You can spend years looking for patterns.
The result of the test.
It's called the Tester Grail, pampering for children and pensioners
Nubians' opinions are of no interest.
but the picture does not match the description below :)))
somewhere posted inaccurate :)))