The most banal trading strategy - page 40

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

mikhael1983isakov:

And ask the orderly for an extra shot of haloperidol (apart from the usual one you get every day before breakfast).

Question for the moderators - do you consider this to be the norm for forum communication?

[Mikhael1983]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

Question to moderators - is this what you consider the norm for forum communication?

You are only being responded to in the way that your posts deserve. If they had contained some informational content, some meaning, ideas, thoughts, well, anything at all, the response would have been different. Since there is nothing - absolutely nothing - in them except stupidity and snide remarks, moreover, militant stupidity and snide remarks, you will be answered with a candelabra in the face. This is perfectly normal. You have to be taught somehow how to behave in society. Make you think, after all, write posts that make sense. To the best of your ability, of course, but at least some sense.

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

mikhael1983isakov:
You are only being answered the way your posts deserve to be answered.

You are only being answered the way your posts deserve to be answered.

And ask the orderly to give you an extra shot of haloperidol (apart from the usual one you get every day before breakfast) to make you feel better - I'm glad.

[Mikhael1983]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

All you get is the response you deserve.

However, the task of writing something that makes at least some sense has not been taken off your shoulders. I have written enough in this thread for people with a modicum of intelligence to be able to derive some benefit. You have a problem with that. A big problem. You haven't written anything useful. I give you permission to try to correct yourself.

Evgeniy Chumakov:

And ask the orderly to give you an extra shot of haloperidol (apart from the usual one you get every day before breakfast) to make you feel better - I'm only glad.

So I'm an orderly myself. Thank you for coming. I will.

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

mikhael1983isakov:

However, the task of writing something that makes at least some sense has not been taken off of you. I have written in this thread enough for people that have a minimum of intelligence to be able to derive some benefit. You have a problem with that. A big problem. You haven't written anything useful. I give you permission to try to correct yourself.

I don't really care about what you wrote and I don't really care about you. Write what you want, I don't give a damn about you. And what I should write I will decide for myself without you.

You can keep on stinking, which is the norm for what you are.

[Mikhael1983]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

I don't really care about what you wrote and I don't really care about you. Write whatever you want, I don't care about you.

You can continue to stink, for what you are the norm.

That's what I needed to prove. The moderators were called upon by an intellectual of the highest order. One could say he sets the standards for communication on the forum. Yeah. Does everyone see his standards? Everyone. Okay, we have seen what Evgeniy Chumakov is and that's enough. You can just ignore him.

Evgeniy Chumakov:

And I will decide for myself what to write without you.

Says the man who just repeated my phrases like an asshole :-)

[Alexander Fedosov]

mikhael1983isakov:
Which is what I needed to prove. The moderators were called out by an intellectual of the highest order. One might say, setting the norms of communication on the forum. Yeah. Does everyone see his standards? Everyone. Okay, we have seen what Evgeniy Chumakov is and that's enough. We can just ignore him.

I have one question. Am I correct in assuming that the more the value of R is different from zero, the more likely it is that R will go back to zero?

[Mikhael1983]

Alexander Fedosov:

I have one question. Am I correct in assuming that the more the value of R is different from zero, the more likely it is that R will go back to zero?

Of course. For each particular value of lag z (i.e. for an SMA of order s=1+2z), the distribution of deviations from zero is known from statistics in the past. It is possible to quantify. That if R is greater than so-and-so, then the probability that the pore is back to zero is greater than 75%. Or 85%. Or 95%. But it is also obvious from general considerations that the more the signal, which by definition is dangling near zero, is deviated from zero, the more likely it is to move further towards zero rather than away from zero. A simple formula (if you rack your brains you will see how it is derived) allows to build a self-consistent solution, taking into account that the SMA is not horizontal, and itself will also change somehow, "float" somewhere (everything is extremely clear, it is clear how the R signal travel (in the future, in the forecast area) and the price travel (in the future, in the forecast area) differ from the R travel due to the contribution of the SMA) will relate to each other. Moreover, you can construct the prediction of R not by some left-handed straight lines by eye, but by some naive algorithm, for example with a constant step along the ordinate, but the probability of which direction (up/down) will be determined on the basis of the current R value at this step (taking into account statistics of deviations in the past). This will give much better results, especially if you then average all these considerations over a couple of hundred different SMAs. A lot of things make sense here. For example, it's quite clear, a statistical fact, so to speak, that on average the predictions for different R's if their values are near zero are straightforward. It's also a strong fact if you think about it. not trying to predict R somehow, but knowing that on average its prediction into the future is just stupidly zero. A horizontal line (if R is small at the time of prediction). Averaging over many different SMAs will then smooth out price prediction errors.

[Sergey Golubev]

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[secret]

mikhael1983isakov:

It feels like watching the EURUSD price (after the forecast moment - blue curve) slowly crawl in line with the forecast (red curve) the public gets confused and excited. Ummm. Slowly the smirks come off their faces.

Well that's one deal. And where is your two year standings, hint?