Does the market need forecasting with more than 50% probability ? - page 5

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

I'm not annoyed by your ramblings - raving and raving and let it go. Maybe the nerves go nowhere. It happens.

Has anyone in a normal system ever seen that the stop is equal to the profit? It's not a coin toss.) However almost everyone tends to forecasts that justify more than 50% of events, and more than 50% of profitable trades. There are a lot of such topics, some of them are on the top now - let's not point the finger.

The system shown in the first post will be in the small profit, even with ~30% justified predictions.

In some posts of this kind, 60% of justified predictions have already been made. It would seem that the money can be shoveled. But no, there is neither money nor working systems.

That is how I earn - I am shoveling money. At the moment it is snowing, then there will be trenches for cables.

 
Комбинатор:

You should have phrased the question even more deliriously.

Pooh, how many times? Probability of winning what? In which case? Where do the numbers come from? Probability doesn't have the word "always" in it. Probability is always tied to an event, not dangling on its own.

they are invincible, they live their life in some kind of fairy tale and they are Gods in it

 
Strictly limited outlining of drawdowns increases the percentage of profitable trades. The graph turns out to be saw-toothed, but generally upward. In this case the drawdown is within the limits of the average monthly growth. The link was blocked.
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

2. In fact, the probability of a correct entry has nothing to do with SL and TP.

I mean, how is it "irrelevant" ???

If we have a long TP and a short SL - then the probability of entries will be the same. And if we decrease TP and increase SL - the probability will be completely different... In my opinion, these parameters are very closely related.

 
George Merts:

What do you mean, "doesn't have"?

If we have a long TP and a short SL - then the probability of entry will be the same. And if we decrease TP and increase SL, the probability will be quite different... In my opinion, these parameters are very closely related.

Well, OK, it's much more complicated than that. The SL is made for the system - any increase/decrease leads to deterioration of the system parameters. But in general, the SL is chosen by calculation. From any settings, in general, is of little use.

TP is an unnecessary parameter. I have TP - this is what grew up, that grew up.) Maybe, it may be >100 points. I cannot predict the market, but I can only determine the appropriate conditions for entry. Everything is determined as the play progresses by the trade support.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

They're invincible, they live their lives in a fairy tale and they're gods in it.

What, Danila, the master, can't you get the Stone Flower? (с)

They took out notes, bass, viola, two violins and sat down on a meadow under a limpet - To captivate the world by their art. They hit their bows and make a fuss, but it's useless. (c) They've made a mess of MoD's theme with absurd posts. They obeyed Donkey and sit in a row, but the quartet can't get on with the job. They're always arguing about who should sit where and how.... Nightingale flew in to their noise....Then they all asked him to solve their doubts. "Please," they said, "have patience for an hour, To put our quartet in order: We have notes and instruments, Just tell us how to sit!" - "To be a musician you must have skill and your ears must be tender," answers the Nightingale, "But you, my friends, no matter how you sit down, you are never good enough to be a musician. (с).

By the way, envy is one of the deadly sins)).

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

What, Danila the Master, is Stone Flower not working out? (с)

"The monkey-monkey, the donkey, the goat and the bear-headed teddy bear, they decided to play a quartet. They took out notes, bass, viola, two violins and sat down on a meadow under a leaf - to captivate the world with their art. They hit their bows, but it's no use. (c) They've made a mess of MoD's theme with absurd posts. They obeyed Donkey and sit in a row, but the quartet can't get on with the job. They're always arguing about who should sit where and how.... Nightingale flew in to their noise....Then they all asked him to solve their doubts. "Please," they said, "have patience for an hour, To put our quartet in order: We have notes and instruments, Just tell us how to sit!" - "To be a musician you must have skill and your ears must be tender," answers the Nightingale, "But you, my friends, no matter how you sit down, you are never good enough to be a musician. (с).

By the way, envy is one of the deadly sins.)

What envy? I have stupid analysis of information without emotions :)

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

What jealousy? I have a stupid analysis of information without emotion :)

What analysis? You don't have anything at all, except your tongue yada yada.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

What analysis? You've got nothing but language and blah-blah.

I have a very deep psychological systemic approach, I can see right through people

anything you write can be used against you :)
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

What, Danila the Master, is Stone Flower not working out? (с)

More precisely (from an anecdote):

What, Danila the Master, doesn't the Stone Flower come out of the cave? (с)

)

// i.e. the flower is made, but there's no way to get it out of the cave and show it off
Reason: