Probability. - page 5
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It's getting late in my day and it's time to get some rest.
We will try to bring the conversation up to the technical parameters in the near future.
Here's a quote:Yuriy Asaulenko:Finally at least one has understood that the market is a random process. And if someone thinks that you can not play and win on a random process - it's their own business.
It's hard to explain the maths to people... Considering that they, for the most part, got C's)
And where is this about random straying? (Explaining the maths) On the random walk is unlikely to earn, although this is far from impossible.) But on the random process is very real - take the same poker - you can, and regularly. Not every random process - random wandering.)
Don't put poker into a theorist. ) theorver deals with games whose outcome depends entirely on chance. a coin, a die. and in poker it all depends on the skill of the player to play.
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danminin, 2017.10.13 01:53
And this is coming from a man who wrote an hour ago that you can make money on random wandering, even though all the theoretical books say the opposite.
I don't know how to play poker, but I know you're not making any sense.)
There's a 50% chance of winning the game if two players are playing.
how hard is it to explain maths to people...
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Yuriy Asaulenko, 2017.10.13 01:57
This is from the cycle - I haven't read it, but I know)))
I never wrote or said that you can make money on random wandering. Read carefully.)) And learn some maths, by the way, before explaining anything to anyone.))
Try it, you'll be surprised. Practice is a criterion of truth, not statements of theory, especially if such theory is probability theory. Practice (numerical experiments) confirms the possibility of earning on "the process of random walk".
From the point of view of earning on movements of some process, "the process of Forex" is worse than "the process of random walks". But you don't deny the possibility of making money from forex. And you are right not to deny it. But the "process of random walks" just doesn't fit in your head, moreover, you can bring theoretical proof here as well - and as a result denial, that hasn't been proved not only by practice, but also by a sensible theoretical substantiation. So you repeat like parrots, "you can't! you can't! you can't!". And practice says you can.
Try it. You'd be surprised. Practice is the criterion of truth, not theory, especially if that theory is probability theory. Practice (numerical experiments) confirms the possibility of earning from the "process of random walk".
From the point of view of earning on movements of some process, "the process of Forex" is worse than "the process of random walks". But you don't deny the possibility of making money from forex. And you are right not to deny it. But the "process of random walks" just doesn't fit in your head, moreover, you can bring theoretical proof here as well - and as a result denial, that hasn't been proved not only by practice, but also by a sensible theoretical substantiation. So you repeat like parrots, "you can't! you can't! you can't!". And practice says you can.
How many of your tractors have you closed?)
how many of your tractors have you shut down?)
is that all you can think of? but have you done anything of your own? do it -- then you'll understand. now you're just repeating memorized phrases without understanding the meaning.
And how do you know that the visible part of the iceberg is only a seventh of the mass.
that's all you can think of? but have you done anything of your own? do it, then you'll understand. now you're just repeating memorized phrases with no sense of meaning.
And how do you know that the visible part of the iceberg is only a seventh of the mass.
)))
I wake up, lie down and think.
For example in sports, you can see the result of a prediction probability at the end of a match, but in financial markets there is a continuous process. What options would you suggest?
It is clear that the end result will be a change in the balance of the deposit.
For the result to be positive I have an estimation of the forecast for the upcoming event, i.e. for the change in the price of the asset.
It looks like this, I am pasting a picture.
I have a thought that if a proportional value of money is used for trading operations for entering the market, stable profit will be possible.
This is why I brought up this topic. We can discuss this question by common efforts.
I wake up, lie down and think.
For example in sports, you can see the result of a prediction probability at the end of a match, but in financial markets there is a continuous process. What options would you suggest?
What do you mean in sports? How do bookmakers determine the odds?
For example, the latest national championships and look at how many matches each team has won.
Then there should be a match between 2 of these teams. One team has a number 7, the other 1. So the first is 7 times stronger for the second.
And calculate the odds. The first team gets odds of 7, the second 1.14.
Then these odds are decreased by 30% - bookmaker's profit.
So they use history to know which team is stronger.
In forex, the probability that the price will go up or down is always 50%. if you don't have a trading system!
and if there is a trading system in which 60% of normal trades, then the probability that the price will go in the direction shown by TS, is equal to 60%!