and wandering around randomly again... - page 55
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Your words explicitly mean that (!) the probability of getting heads on the 101st roll is MORE than 50%, if there were 60 heads and 40 tails in the previous 100 rolls (for example).
But this is at variance with the generally accepted view that ON ANY shot in the series (!) heads and tails are EQUALLY likely to fall out, since the results of the previous shots do not affect any of the subsequent ones.
no it is not more.... in each particular roll the probability is always kept 50:50 if in previous 100 rolls there were 60 heads and 40 tails - it is usual randomness skewness...but as the probability is 50:50 it will be equalized in time anyway (it is unknown when exactly because it is a random process)...
the distribution always tends to the ratio given initially... this is the simplest law
Eh, SanSanych, people here do not know a thing about sigma and variance, and you tell them about the analysis of heteroscedasticity! How is that possible!
"... There is no way the coin can produce an infinite trajectory of +1 and -2..."
By this you categorically state that the probability of occurrence of the sequence "+1, -2" and the like is EQUAL to ZERO, and there are no other sequences.
As a "dormant ignoramus", I conclude that your coin knows how to control the process, stores the history of throws... and falls out in a STRICTLY DETAILED pattern (rather than 50/50) whenever a series starts to add up in a way that doesn't satisfy you.
(you could get an eyeful from casino customers for such a coin.)
You are stupid. There can be an infinite +1-2 trajectory, but which is part of the general trajectory. Since the general trajectory is infinite, its part is also infinite, but that infinity is of a smaller order than the whole trajectory.
and you've capitalised on your heteroskedasticity? )))
no it is not more.... in each particular shot the probability is always kept 50:50 if in previous hundred there were 60 heads and 40 tails - it is usual randomness skew...but as the probability is 50:50 this skew will be leveled with time anyway (it is unknown when exactly because it is a random process)...
the distribution always tends to the ratio given initially... this is the simplest law
Amazing Law you have...
Somehow, miraculously, he begins to think it's time for him to move up... TOWARDS GROUND ZERO...
At the same time, it absolutely does not care that the place on the trajectory where the Law decided it should go up is itself the beginning AND ZERO mark of a new sequence (!)
And how will your Law be now...?
If it goes up, to the zero mark set a hundred moves ago, then it will not be obeyed for the second zero mark, which has the SAME RIGHTS as the first, but is 10 points below it ...
Your "law" is WIRELESS,nowi, because, in an infinite sequence, ANY POINT HAS THE SAME RIGHT TO BE ELECTRICATED (start) for all subsequent outcomes. And the "law" cannot be enforced for all points at once.
(that's the whole law...)
You are stupid. There can be a +1-2 infinite trajectory, but which is part of the general trajectory. Since the general trajectory is infinite, its part is also infinite, but that infinity is of a smaller order than the whole trajectory.
Of course stupid...
After all, only you know what did NOT prevent the +1-2 trajectory from being infinite up to where you wanted it to be, but it is from here that it has no right to be further as infinite
.
How,Dmitry Fedoseev- not allowed...
What an amazing Law you have...
Somehow, miraculously, he begins to think it's time for him to move up... TOWARDS GROUND ZERO...
At the same time, it absolutely does not care that the place on the trajectory where the Law decided it should go up is itself the beginning AND ZERO mark of a new sequence (!)
And now what should your Law be?
If it goes up, to the zero mark set a hundred moves ago, then it will not be obeyed for the second zero mark, which has the SAME RIGHT as the first, but is 10 points below it...
Your "law" is WIRELESS,nowi, because, in an infinite sequence, ANY POINT HAS THE SAME RIGHT TO BE ELECTRICATED (start) for all subsequent outcomes. And the "law" cannot be enforced for all points at once.
(That's the whole law...).
As I see what you are trying to say
Once again 011011011011011 and 01010101010101 are equally probable? my answer is YES checked (there is always a deviation in plus or minus) so what changes when you increase the length of the pattern? nothing and again they will be equal probability, otherwise you can trade without martin in +
the longer the period, the greater the width of this cloud will be.
the graphs do not tend to zero. but the sum of their results (on average) is zero.
interesting point: at first it expands very fast, and then the expansion goes almost at a constant angle.
it looks like an inverted parabola.
It's not mine, they gave me a Nobel Prize for it, unfortunately not me. And making money in the financial markets, it's like wandering around randomly.
You are stupid...
You andnowi fail to understand that by denying the possibility of something happening IN THE MIDDLE of a series, you deny the possibility of the same event happening at the beginning of the series... For, in the sequence, EVERY POINT IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW SERIES (!!!) with all the conclusions that follow from it... And if something happened at one point in the series (e.g., a +1-2 sequence began), it can ALWAYS happen with the same EASILITY... at any part of the trajectory, for it DOES NOT KNOW where the beginning is located