Cyclical patterns in the market - page 2
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Can you describe this beautiful method, interesting, want to look at the problem from a different angle, learn something new.
I can suggest a door that leads in that direction. But the result will depend on you.
Run in the tester (I have ForexTester) a series of trades with a random opening direction and TP=SL=20...25 pips. Open a new position as soon as the existing one is closed. And then - look at the chain of bars, which show completed deals on the chart of the tester (take three days).
If you see something interesting - you will have something to think about. And if you don't - it will be a pity...
I can suggest a "door" that leads in that direction. But the result will depend on you.
Run in the tester (I have ForexTester) a series of trades with a random opening direction and TP=SL=20...25 pips. Open a new position as soon as the existing one is closed. And then - look at the chain of bars, which show completed deals on the chart of the tester (take three days).
If you see something interesting - you will have something to think about. And if you don't - it will be a pity...
I've done it with a zero spread. TP=SL=20. I do not see anything interesting. What can be interesting about roulette?
Run with zero spread. TP=SL=20. I don't see anything interesting...
Yeah, not much to see here... I'd even say it's not at all what I'd expect to see.
It hit me when the price chart was a regular... candlestick...
... What could be interesting about roulette?
Roulette's got nothing to do with it...
Roulette has nothing to do with it...
TP=SL=20 randomly, with a spread - one to one roulette.
TP=SL=20 randomly, with a one to one roulette spread.
The position direction is chosen randomly only because it is not the "grain" of the solution
Yes, and the TF is roughly 30 minutes...
Whatever...
And how did people check? How did they formalise TC (examples) from ARCH/GARCH in general?
There are different ways to check... It just turns out (at least in all the cases I have come across) that the mutual information between the variance processes and the quotes themselves (already taking into account the sign of the increments) is practically zero. In other words, they are simply two multiplicatively superimposed independent random processes. Independent at least that much so that the problem of practical application cannot be solved directly.
I want to emphasize that the topic-starter has not yet got rid of seasonality, i.e. has not subtracted the influence of time of day, day of week, ... i.e. factors that accurately affect the dispersion of traffic, but certainly do not affect its direction. Only after that you can look at some *ARCH models.