Cyclical patterns in the market - page 20

 
Dima.A.:


I think I understand your working scheme. Confirm my guess by answering the following questions.

1. Do you maximise your profits in a volatile market in the flat?

2. What is the minimum profit you make in a low-volatility market in a trend?

3. the profit parameter in this scheme plays a very large role in the survivability of the system. There are no stops.



In general, what I personally understood is that you need to continually buy and sell in certain increments. I implemented it this way. I draw a certain average line with a certain period (not a wristwatch, but a simple line) that connects two bars, N candle back and the current one. And we shift this line to this bar. Thus it appears that we extract points from fluctuations with some averaging. But it turns out we will not get far away from it (sooner or later there will be a situation when either margin will run out or a large trend with a steadily increasing angle will lead to a large loss). Here we need to solve 2 more puzzles: 1) how to deal with margin shortage (with infinitely large depo system is stable), what to do if there is a place where losses start to accumulate.

I have tested it on history and on demo for the first time. I received about 10-20% profit per day in naked mode, but at the same time the above-mentioned problems destabilize the system and you can effectively drain it.

 
alsu:

In the end, of course, it turns into the same heat. The chain is roughly as follows: one bought, the other sold, as a result one of them got a profit, he: a) drank/sold it (releasing a certain amount of heat into the atmosphere) b) gave it to a third person for some product or service, and so on along the commodity-money chain, until we get to the dude, who will reach point a).

But this is not so important, it is important to realise a more general thing - thermodynamics determines the direction of the arrow of time, which is determined by the direction of irreversible processes. This is exactly the kind of process we observe on the marker, regardless of what kind of energy it occurs with. For simplicity, you can consider that with information in the broad sense, since it is both the origin of all market movements (in the form of concentrated information influences) and their final result (but already in a dissipated state).

With the APR forecast, an analogy could be drawn: You can predict how much energy will be applied (money), but you cannot predict how much of this energy will be "warmed" and how much will go to work (pushing the market in a certain direction). Or is it possible to predict that too?