Absolute courses - page 54
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The notion of TF is meaningless. What makes sense is the TP. I have TP=SL=50 pips. I draw your attention that having in mind different TP can be equally correct at one and the same time to make a decision to buy and sell. And both trades will easily close on the TP. This is called multifractality.
OK, what do you base your choice of TP, SL on then? Do not look at the chart at all? I, for example, see that you have a stop on the Kad at clear February support, and on the pound at the daily hai.
I prefer not to look at the chart. The value of TP=SL does not matter. The main thing is not to be too small, not to suffer from noise and not to get a 50/50 chance without a sensible price movement, and not too much, not to wait for the long result of each trade without their huge amount. Moreover, there is no such a difference which would move the price that much. In the end, too, it would be 50/50. TP=50 pips has been selected without selection (though optimization can be carried out for each pair). This is normal, not too much and not too little.
Still, the elastic stresses did not relax for a long time (the Eurodollar and Pounddollar had a horizontal line all day), but... Relaxed. And precisely that rather sharply downwards:
overall TP/SL is already 6/2.
who's to say it's a fluke?
Essentially trading for a return to average.
I wonder what the triggering frequency of TP and SL would be depending on the deviation.
Intuitively, there should be a bias.
... I wonder what the triggering frequency of TP and SL will be as a function of deflection. Intuitively, there should be an offset.
We'll soon find out. I am curious myself. :-)
What's the use of procrastination? If you have a clear entry algorithm, then run it on history.
Who's to say it's an accident?
I will. I mean, technically, it's nothing. Nothing at all. Those who are closely involved in testing cannot disagree with me that judging by 10-20 trades is nothing at all. And even 100 deals is still nothing. I've seen even more surprises than that. But 500 deals - that's something. Or for example at 100 trades the percentage of successful 80 is something, there is a groundwork to continue testing (although still not a fact. I've had more surprises than that, which ended up with nothing.) And that's not all. There is for example such an argument - all deals are sequential, i.e. you have a sample of deals arranged continuously and sequentially in time. It even more reduces confidence in the results, in the sense that it may be so that there is a period in the market, when some factor works (what factor is unknown, and it is not necessarily what you invented, it just happens to coincide). And sooner or later this period comes to an end, the profit disappears. I have had such an effect here too, and I think I am not the only one. The effect in this case is neutralized by the fact that you can not determine when this period (successful effectiveness) has come and when it will disappear. I mean that you could be more confident, if trades (the same 10-20) were taken on a large history from different periods, randomly.) Don't take this as a hit, I'm trying to be solely constructive, perhaps a bit summarily - I'm not too eloquent. But you are rightly told here that you should test in matlab\matkadas on a big story. Even if your idea has an output, you can get it to perfection mio times faster there (time-money).
I too will say that this is called randomness for the time being. The sample is not reliable, don't you know.
Do at least 1,000 transactions.
So, colleagues. Slowly the trades are closing, slowly. It's a quiet market or something. But another one closed. Total TP to SL ratio is already 7/2.
P.S. On my demo account 4 orders have closed, the ratio is 2/2. It happens. We may consider it as a demonstration of risklessness. That it will not be worse than 50/50.
I remind you the details of the demo account:
Metatrader - Alpari.
Account number: 3998142
Server: Alpari-Demo
password (view only): n3yfolz
Even though it's a demo, it's not a tester. My indexes work too, so what? Should I start my own branch of demonstration trading as well?