FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 17: July 2012) - page 521
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Finally one sober!
Nah, this one's been drinking too :)
Nah, drank that one too :)
The renowned economist Nouriel Roubini is once again "entertaining" us with pessimistic predictions about the future of the USA. Indeed, can a man called "Dr. Doom" write an upbeat article? That said, there is absolutely nothing to counter the economist's arguments.
Roubini gave 5 reasons that the US economic growth will slow down in the second half of 2012 and will be even lower in 2013:
1. The US GDP growth rate slowed from 1.8% in the first quarter to 1.5% in the second quarter due to a sharp drop in the rate of job creation, averaging 70,000 per month.
2. Expectations of a "fiscal cliff" (automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for later this year), as well as uncertainty surrounding the presidential election, will keep spending and economic growth low during the second half of the year.
3. if all tax credits expire and severe spending cuts are implemented, economic growth will contract by 4.5% of GDP next year because of the fiscal cliff. Of course, the actual deceleration would be much weaker, because the tax increases and spending cuts would be much more moderate. But even if the fiscal cliff is a moderate blow to economic growth, economic growth will slow to 1%.
4. Since last year, disposable income growth has been supported by tax cuts and expanding social payments, which means another $1.4 trillion increase in public debt.
5. Negative external factors: escalating eurozone crisis, increasingly hard landing for China, slowing growth of emerging economies, risk of oil price increase in 2013 on the back of escalating relations with Iran.
Roubini believes that the Fed will launch a new round of QE, but this measure will not yield significant results as US interest rates are already very low. The dollar remains strong because of investor risk aversion due to events in Europe. In addition, other countries are also implementing monetary stimulus. As a result, monetary policy efforts will be in vain and will not be able to correct the growth rate of the US economy. Roubini considers that a significant correction of the stock markets could cause the US economy to contract in 2012.
And under what conditions can you enter sales according to this principle?
The price is below the contract level and last week's level, but there are many nuances, it is not a technical MTS where one dash crosses another and there it is happiness)
Tantrik - 5 for this morning's prediction of a rise in the euro...
The price is below the contract level and last week's level, but there are many nuances, this is not a technical MTS where one dash crosses another and there it is happiness)
Don't touch the dashes - don't infringe on the sacred :)
Tantrik - 5 for this morning's prediction of a rise in the euro...
margaret:
US Treasury Secretary Geithner's speech at 23 Moscow time
I wonder what he will say )))
Is it likely to lead to a drop in the dollar index and a corresponding rise in the eu-bucks pair, with the euro not going to be the same or worse?
follow this link and give me a plus sign)))
hilarious... don't tell me... at least register and like it)))