EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 690
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Here, by the way, is the markup from ZetM:
2011.04.13 23:27:48 *FED spokesman Bullard: US inflation has bottomed out, begins to rise
2011.04.13 23:28:54 *Bullard: Fed needs to start implementing exit strategy
201104.04.13 23:29:17 *Bullard: Further rate normalization likely if trends continue
2011.04.13 23:32:17 *Bullard: More US GDP growth likely in Q2 and Q3
2011.04.13 23:33:02 *Bullard: US GDP in Q1 weaker than expected
2011.04.13 23:31:06 *Weber: ECB policy remains soft after rate hike
The EU is set to give Portugal an estimated 80-90 billion euros in financial aid, on conditions similar to those imposed on Greece and Ireland. Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes such an ultimatum would prevent countries from easing their debt burden. Irish GDP has lost 11% in 2 years while the Greek economy has shrunk by 6.5% in the past year.
British newspaper "The Guardian" highlights 3 possible scenarios in Europe.
1. Good news scenario
Peripheral EM economies would continue to contract, but Spain would escape the crisis. The Spanish banking system looks relatively resilient, with most of the country's sovereign debt in the hands of the Spaniards themselves. Since the debt crisis hit Portugal, interest rates on Spanish debt have fallen slightly. The EU authorities continue to reassure the markets that Spain does not need to ask for help, although last year the same was said about Portugal.
2. Bad news scenario
Spain, with slower economic growth and higher unemployment than the Portuguese, will be hit by rising yields on its debt and will need to call upon the EU for help.
10-year bonds cost the country 4.9%, while Eurozone nations, which are excluded from the financial market, pay just over 5.5% to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). In addition it has to be kept in mind that the loan that Spain might need is estimated at 400 billion euros. The EFSF can raise 750 billion. Ireland and Portugal would need at least 160 billion. Thus, the rescue of Spain would exhaust the fund. Given the difficulty of increasing the EFSF politically, Belgium or Italy could be the next weak link.
3. The "very bad news" scenario
Of course, a default by Spain this year is unlikely. However, an intensification of public protests in peripheral countries over budget cuts, as well as a default by Greece or Ireland cannot be ruled out. A default by one country would entail the risk of defaults by other peripheral countries, which would raise the issue of them abandoning the single currency.
Here, by the way, is the markup from ZetM:
All your technical analyses are nonsense - if you can safely trade on the chaos theory and do not worry about the deposit - and make a quiet $100 minimum - with a deposit of 3 thousand -
The news, analytics - all this is nonsense and takes your time - the market and the chart takes into account everything - and you care about the end result -
http://vkontakte.ru/video1713905_159469990
Who trades on the machines knows that the first breakout is false and a fractal order to buy or sell - the system has already been laid out here and I have been roughly rubbished - not believing that the profit is so easy to do and enjoy it.
As for the EURUSD, a false-break-down before a fractal is formed, there is a ceiling - either a down reversal or a divergence.
But if the fractal closes in a rainbow, BUY
I think for now growth))))))))
And ZetM stop insulting!!!!!!!!!!....... He's not bad at it.....Who doesn't like it, look for other forums...!!!!!!!!!!!!