Optimal moving average - page 12

 
m_a_sim:

don't try to optimise your waving periods. Do it by eye, every 6 hours, only your intuition will tell you, as unpredictable as the market


I eventually came to that conclusion too.

 

Try to build a waveform as usual - from left to right, then a waveform from right to left (from the end, ) of the same period, then shift the last one by the number of bars of the ma period to the left, and then build a macdi from these two waveforms, and extrapolate it.

Sort of a band-pass filter from differently directed beacons.

 
This is bullshit :-) an ordinary Exponential MA on 15TF with a period of 2500 or more will give good entry/exit signals... seldom but accurate, picking out any significant trends in the instrument...
 
Aleksander:
This is bullshit :-) a normal Exponential MA on 15TF with a period of 2500 or more will give good entry/exit signals... Rarely but accurately, selecting all significant trends for an instrument...
Well then on EURUSD 15.06.12 an uptrend has begun - I'm like a forecast... ( according to my other method - so far a controversial uptrend started on 4.06.12)
 
Aleksander:
This is bullshit :-) an ordinary Exponential MA on 15TF with a period of 2500 or more will give good entry/exit signals... seldom but accurate, picking out any significant trends in the instrument...


This is not a ts, but a way of decomposing a series. Maybe you should look at the problem of edge effects during extrapolation from this point of view.

 

well... it's hard to tell now... The downtrend started on May 2 and lasted till June 14... (at 5514 pips) - and now it's back and forth... it was kinda flat...

yesterday the price closed below the MA - a signal for a continuation of the downtrend in general...

 
Vattt:


Alexander, don'tbullshit, it's not abouttrends, inputs, outputs,it' sa way ofdecomposinga series.

don't get involved... it's too early for you to interpret price behaviour... until you meet the silence norm ....
 

Justification...

Ma600(2400/m15) VS ZZ3500

Price above the middle of the ZZ channel (I agree the sideways-horizontal line from the beginning of "my" uptrend). Probably also analysts on TV making predictions like me

 
They don't just watch TV... they also read coffee... but your MASH is not lying... the price is below it - so a downward move is more likely :-)
 
Reason: