[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 15: May 2012) - page 193
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Banks around the world are bailing out in hard times, instead of boosting the manufacturing sector, which is understandable - it is THEIR banks through which they make money out of thin air.
What kind of economy can we talk about after that?
Is the Buy closed?
Yes, I closed before the close, leaving only the gold buy.
Yeah, there's no economy, soon the money will be only on cards, we won't see it alive and everyone will be in talk fusion, sending videos and getting ratings... we'll only eat what we've got, or potato powder with clay))) I just came from the mountains, found three ticks on myself... you don't have to go there at all... What's the world coming to? )))))))))
current picture on the JPY EUR and USD indices
The dollar index is probably showing a reversal:
1. The candlestick pattern is a bearish Closing Price Reversal, possibly with a PIN-bar.
2. MACD shows a divergence on D1.
3. the Chaikin Oscillator has reversed downwards.
The dollar index is probably showing a reversal:
1. The candlestick pattern is a bearish Closing Price Reversal set-up, possibly with a PIN bar.
2. MACD shows a divergence on D1.
3. the Chaikin Oscillator has reversed downwards.
There is such a thing, but no signal down yet:
There is also a divergence in volume on the daily.
Glitches on the forum again, can't edit the post and reply, where are our repairmen?)))
The dollar index is probably showing a reversal:
1. The candlestick pattern is a bearish Closing Price Reversal set-up, possibly with a PIN bar.
2. MACD shows a divergence on D1.
3. The Chaikin Oscillator has reversed downwards.
It is not yet clear whether the USD will reverse or not and I don't trust oscillators very much these days
Divergence in other words is just the change of the instrument speed, but not the fact that the up trend
will be changed by the downtrend. The analysis on D1 is a long-term trends for clarification it would be good to
to analyze the hour chart.
And so far I do not see any reversal of the dollar index (green H4)
European stock indices are recovering in trading on Friday, trying to close the first week of this month's gains, after Mario Monti announced that most leaders in the region support the idea of issuing Eurobonds. "The Italian prime minister's comments are supporting the market as many investors see them as a safeguard against Greek problems spreading to the rest of the Eurozone," said John Plassard, director of Louis Capital Markets in Geneva. - "Germany is becoming increasingly lonely in opposing this idea and will not last long. Investors are hoping that a final decision on Eurobonds will be taken at the ECB's next meeting in June."
Karolos Papoulias, president of Greece, said on 14 May that according to the central bank, depositors had withdrawn about 700 million euros from Greek banks. The actual values will not be published until a few weeks later, but according to bankers, directly on the fourteenth and in the following days around 1.2 billion euros sailed out of the system. According to bankers, the outflow has not stopped for a day. "Most of the money is already gone," they point out. "What is happening now is already a residual phenomenon: small depositors who don't know how to relate to what the evening news said are also withdrawing their funds."
Worse, deposit outflows could start in other vulnerable Eurozone countries, such as Spain or Portugal. "It's like a broken faucet: at first it's popping and then it just comes off," he says. "Greece is just the beginning, other peripheral countries are facing the same thing - it's only a matter of time." For now, households in other countries are not touching their savings. But big companies have already started transferring funds from peripheral banks and countries. In the UK, some local governments are withdrawing money from the UK branch of Santander Bank.
The Greek authorities can quickly restore confidence in the banks by injecting some 48 billion euros of new capital into the system, which was obtained from the European Financial Assistance Fund just for that purpose. The European Central Bank, which this week stopped a number of operations with some Greek banks because they have not yet been recapitalised, could also reassure depositors by showing that there is enough liquidity for everyone. However, it is a double-edged sword: convincing depositors that there is enough money may not stop the outflow, but may increase it.
Even if Europe as a whole and Greece in particular hold out until the next election, it is possible that Greeks will still vote for a government that decides to pull out of the Eurozone. Bankers in Greece are praying that this will not happen. "Abandoning the euro would be a disaster," says one of them. "The analogy with Argentina is not quite right: there already had its own currency. Here, on the other hand, the economy would immediately shift to natural exchange." In fact, it is not just the shores of the Aegean Sea that are in danger of withdrawal.
The direct financial costs to creditor countries of Greece's exit have been somewhat reduced, but they are still enormous. As usual, a large part of the burden will fall on European taxpayers. The central bank of Greece owes about 100 billion euros to other central banks of the monetary union. If Greece defaults on its debts, only Germany will incur losses of about 30 billion euros. The ECB would also incur a loss of 56 billion euros on Greek government bonds bought on the secondary market. Eurozone members and the International Monetary Fund will also be on the hook if Greece refuses to pay back loans received under the bailout programme. The funds allocated by Europe for the bailout programme do not exceed €161bn, including collateral deferred just in case, to cover losses at the ECB. The IMF has lent 22 billion euros.
When the banks are directly dependent on the fortunes of Greece, the spreading of the financial epidemic will reach a new stage. Even after the partial write-off of Greek state bonds and their exchange for less valuable ones, European banks and other investors are left with debts of a total amount of 55 billion Euros which they will probably not get back.
The state is not the only debtor in Greece. The Bank for International Settlements notes that Greek companies and households still owe international banks about 69 million euros. France is most at risk (with about 37 million euro in loans to Greek companies and households), followed by UK banks (almost 8 million) and Germany (6 million).
For the European financial system it is now important not to let the problem spread beyond Greece. In the event of a Greek withdrawal Cyprus would be the first to suffer, because its banking system is closely linked to the Greek system. According to estimates by rating agency Moody's, a Greek exit from the Eurozone would cause losses for Cypriot banks that would require a capital increase of more than 50% of the country's GDP, or €9 billion. The total exposure of European banks reaches €36bn.
Credit costs in Spain and Italy are rising along with the chances of a Greek exit, and the Spanish government cannot convince investors that the country's banking system is safe. The Greek crisis has been going on for two years now. Politicians are now just days away from securing the rest of the periphery.
But Cyprus is not a problem, it can easily be bailed out if necessary. What is scarier is that market attention could turn to the larger countries of the monetary union as the next candidates for exit. First in line are Portugal and Ireland.