[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 9: November 2011) - page 148
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Saw some scary media panic about the Euro being "closed". :)
Bottom line, this is complete nonsense.
What may happen.
1) Germany and the others who want to exit the euro.
2) Greece and other problematic countries leave the Euro.
Those who will join the Euro will suffer. Finland, for example, will not need the volume of Euro for their economy, and the Euro will fall to 0.1.
In the second case, euro rises against the dollar to 3.0. And the debts of the troubled countries will get under the same rink, not only Greeks but also normal economies like Finland. The crisis will get much worse and the banks in Germany will collapse.
As a result, it is clear that the 'division of the euro with exit' is not the way out. That is, there will be no such thing.
The most alarmist prediction is that they will introduce an extra currency, Euro Lite, for Greece and Portugal and the rest of Italy. It will be on a par with the euro in those countries.
The most realistic prediction is that the Euro will be lowered to 1 or even 0.9 by quantitative easing. However if it is done by simple emission then European banks will suffer ( fatally ) again.
So most likely they will not do anything with the Euro. They will just recur debts in the form of Euro bonds that will be nominated in Euro and the Euro will grow to 1.6 ( approx.) .
On the whole european economies are better than the usa, so right now IMHO apart from the problem countries they have no acute problems. There are of course high wages and social security, but the pressure is not strong, but it will last a long time. So no need to panic - in general the euro will not go anywhere if it is not dropped on purpose.
I do transfers from home via computer (Privat24) .... I have a birthday the same day as Yulia Tymoshenko
Got it, congratulations.
Saw some scary media panic about the Euro being "closed". :)
At the end of the day I would say that it is nonsense.
What could happen.
1) Germany and some other countries will leave the euro.
2) Greece and other problematic countries leave the Euro.
In the first case, those who will stay in the Euro, like Finland, will suffer a lot because they do not need that much money for their economies and the Euro will fall to 0.1.
The euro would rise to 3.0 against the dollar. And the debts of the problematic countries will also get under this rink, not only Greeks but also quite normal economies like Finland. The crisis will get much worse and the banks in Germany will collapse.
In the end it is clear that "splitting the euro with the exit" is not the way out. So it is not going to happen.
The most alarmist prognosis is that they will introduce an additional currency, Euro Lite, for Greece and Portugal and the rest of Italy. It will be on a par with the euro in those countries.
The most realistic prediction is that the Euro will be lowered to 1 or even 0.9 by quantitative easing. However if it is done by simple emission then European banks will suffer ( fatally ) again.
So most likely they will not do anything with the Euro. They will just recur debts in the form of Euro bonds that will be nominated in Euro and the Euro will grow to 1.6 ( approx.).
On the whole european economies are better than the usa, so right now IMHO apart from the problem countries they have no acute problems. There are of course high wages and social security, but the pressure is not strong, but it will last a long time. So no need to panic - in general the euro will not go anywhere if it is not dropped on purpose.
It's about time we got used to this kind of screaming starting near the bottom.
Got it, congratulations.
Thank you!
That's what Romanov writes, it's even nicer to read...
... ...the eureka is supported by the price itself, which shows increased tenacity. The euro does not want to fall. It's not just us, but also Christian Nouillet, who spoke this morning in Singapore. The market believes in the EUR, as evidenced by the fact that it is not at all low. That's a fair point. Only a blind man cannot see that. If you assess the charts visually, the weekly, daily, and even the H4 scales look poo-poo. What is missing is a fresh divergence on the hour. As the last straw to this snow avalanche lurking on the H4. You'll laugh, but the eu is looking at 1.4217-82. Give me a divert masd from the depths of the eurodollar and I will turn it upside down. In the meantime, it's gone and it's a short conversation. Nothing to shake the air about. Wait! The pound, what a bastard, didn't go to 1.57. So what? Where's it going to go? I said humpy. It'll be there. Just a matter of time. And it's a bit early to average it out again, too, it's not good enough. There is no time and no place - there is no necessary depth to buy, and especially to average. It's good that positions from 5489 are closed by 5632, it's so nice and comfortable even in the light of this small thing. How little does a poor trader need for happiness, especially considering that our job is one of the ten most shitty, nerve-racking, and unrespected by ordinary people occupation. But for some reason, after football coach. Eh-heh-heh-heh!
Thank you!
That's what Romanov writes, it's even nicer to read...
... In favour of the eu is the price itself, which shows increased tenacity. The euro does not want to fall. It's not just us, but also Christian Nouillet, who spoke this morning in Singapore. The market believes in the EUR, as evidenced by the fact that it is not at all low. That's a fair point. Only a blind man cannot see that. If you assess the charts visually, the weekly, daily, and even the H4 scales look poo-poo. What is missing is a fresh divergence on the hour. As the last straw to this snow avalanche lurking on the H4. You'll laugh, but the eu is looking at 1.4217-82. Give me a divert masd from the depths of the eurodollar and I will turn it upside down. In the meantime, it's gone and it's a short conversation. Nothing to shake the air about. Wait! The pound, what a bastard, didn't go to 1.57. So what? Where's it going to go? I said humpy. It'll be there. Just a matter of time. And it's a bit early to average it out again, too, it's not good enough. There is no time and no place - there is no necessary depth to buy, and especially to average. It's good that positions from 5489 are closed by 5632, it's so nice and comfortable even in the light of such a trifle. How little does a poor trader need for happiness, especially considering that our job is one of the ten most shitty, nerve-racking, and unrespected by ordinary people occupation. But for some reason, after football coach. Eh-heh-heh-heh!
Right, the most normal analyst.
A beautiful wolf on the chiff:
margaret:
WISHING FOR IMMODEST PROFITS,
A HUGE ACCOUNT IN A SPANISH BANK,
A BIG SUMMER HOUSE IN THE COUNTRY,
♪ AND GOOD HEALTH ♪
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♪ CANARIES AND AZURE SHORES ♪
SUCCESSES OF ALL KINDS IN LIFE,
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, RELIABLE FRIENDS!