[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 7: September 2011) - page 54
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I laughed. ))) The rouble will fall along with those listed.
And where to?
Where to?
winter is coming
Hi!
Where did they run to last time? The franc (of course it will depend on whether the SNB can contain it), the yen (it has already hit all-time lows there), the kiwi-currency and the kangaroo currency. As an option, which has been on the radar screen of late, could be all sorts of kroner. Russia is a commodity economy and could in theory be a safe haven, but it is weak and dependent. There is no production in Europe and gas and oil are not really needed.
They're tricking you (I don't believe it), the crisis is over - the forex is still in the news!
Hi!
winter is coming
It is coming, no doubt about it. Only for this winter and future winters (on paper at least) gas and oil are already purchased. Negative forecasts about production and the economy in case Greece defaults will have a negative impact on the demand for gas and oil. Remember the summer and autumn of 2008 when the financial crisis was already at the door and only a spark was expected, how much information was there about the massive withdrawal of money from Russia. So during the crisis no one will invest in Russia or in the rouble. (Personal opinion)
You wrote one of the reasons for pegging to the euro (in your opinion), to which I gave just a personal opinion. Pegging in the face of a possible default is (it seems to me) quite a risky move because it's not just the euro, but also the dollar and the pound that will flee (just look at the charts for 2008). The SNB will be stretched to contain the strengthening of the franc against all currencies. In my view the peg is caused by a slowing economy and export problems in Switzerland.
Since 1992. The exchange rate of currencies linked to the CHF has steadily declined. In 2009, the Swiss bank defended the level of 1.5 for several months. The Bank of Switzerland, for several months, defended the level of 1.5... from a precipitous fall. Now again, but already at 1.2... They will not be able to hold it permanently, I think they are clear about that. Their task, in my opinion, is to slow down the decline, to slow down the "capital flow" into the CHF. At least, somehow, to mitigate the negative phenomena. Why they are doing it now, they monitor the situation and they understand that very soon panic will occur in the market and they are preparing for it. I remember an old article, I don't remember where I read it, but it sounded like this:".... The world needs a return to the policy of hard money, which is gold or currencies backed by it.As long as governments can interfere in monetary matters, the old problems will recur, of course, after the market bottoms out, people will buy stocks and debts again. It's always been that way and it always will be that way. ....." So, nothing to worry about..... It always has been, and always will be....))))
buy