FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 171
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who's going south? (euro?, what about the rate hike...%...)(dollar? before the south I expect a good (I mean piggy-back squealing...) correction to the north)
...and on the subject, there are several options for north, south... (which do you prefer?)
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/134379/page153
Noterday 15.07.2011 00:11https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/134379/page153
Noterday 15.07.2011 00:11"The US House of Representatives will vote again on Tuesday to increase the debt limit, an amendment to the budget."(s-DoJ)
Five kopecks of the weekend.
Those who started it two years ago are nowhere to be seen (Au-Yu). But EUR/USD is still the one in the spotlight. Yes, these are the major currencies. But the pair hasn't been moving for the third month. There is no trend. Or it's a matter of principle? There are feeder pairs: EUR/CHF, USD/CHF. One of them will stay like that for a long time.
Or maybe you have a dealer who only has one pair?
Five kopecks of the weekend.
Those who started it two years ago are nowhere to be seen (Au-Yu). But EUR/USD is still the one in the spotlight. Yes, these are the major currencies. But the pair has been flat for the third month. There is no trend. Or it's a matter of principle? There are feeder pairs: EUR/CHF, USD/CHF. One of them will stay like that for a long time.
Or maybe you have a dealer who only has one pair?
Wrote a predictive indicator today:
On the EURUSD D1 chart. The indicator is signalling that after the jump to 1.43 we will soon go down to 1.39-1.37 :) We will check in 7-10 days if it is crazy or not :)
Wrote a predictive indicator today:
On the EURUSD D1 chart. The indicator is signalling that after the jump to 1.43 we will soon go down to 1.39-1.37 :) We will check in 7-10 days if it is crazy or not :)
I almost agree, it will not go to the top and certainly not to the bottom.
By the stripes. On the chart, the chart looks very much like the part circled by the blue oval, which has already let down a dangler from the third tick. Why, the same can't happen on a larger scale?
Plus some sort of wolf, plus the arguments in the posts above. Though, on the other hand, it looks like the upper line of the triangle was broken through and the move to 1.38 might be interpreted as a retest and a false-break.
Wrote a predictive indicator today:
On the EURUSD D1 chart. The indicator is signalling that after the jump to 1.43 we will soon go down to 1.39-1.37 :) We will check in 7-10 days if it is crazy or not :)
Is the interbank in the USA "dead" and Fed money offshore?
During the week, the Fed still continued to carefully buy government bonds, slightly faster than the MBS repayments, but in general did not go beyond a net purchase of $600 +/- 5bn. The government bond portfolio reached $1630.4bn, securities on the balance sheet at $2654.3bn.., and total assets $2882bn. Bank reserves set a new record of $1708.5bn, as did cash on banks' balance sheets, which came close to $1.8 trillion, at $1796.5bn.
Bank credit rose, but almost all of the net increase was in other loans. After three consecutive weeks of decline, mortgage loans rose (+$10.6bn), but consumer credit (-$3.6bn) and corporate credit (-$4.7bn) declined, so overall lending after adjusting for the change in calculation methodology showed nothing new and interesting - credit has stabilized, but we cannot yet speak of the beginning of bank lending growth. Interestingly enough, the data on inter-bank loans came out, the volume of which fell to $108bn by the July 6, while the last time such levels were registered in 1983, but then the assets of banks were 6 times lower, in fact, the inter-bank loans simply died, before the crisis started the inter-bank loans reached $450-500bn, now the inter-bank loans are just over $100bn. For the first time in the post-war period the inter-bank loans were below 1% of bank assets. For small and medium-sized banks this could be a serious problem.
Foreign banks have not taken any special action in recent weeks, liabilities to non-resident offices are virtually unchanged, remaining around $50-70bn. Cash at foreign banks has started to gradually shrink and stood at $845.6bn by 6 July, representing 45.9% of their assets. But now US banks have reduced their liabilities to foreign branches to their lowest levels since 2006, $230-240 billion, cutting them by $66 billion, or nearly a quarter, in just a few weeks.
Some Western resources have suggested that the sharp capital flow is due to the so-called "Eurodollars" - dollar deposits outside the US. The bottom line is that the transfer of dollars from the US to non-resident bank accounts is actually reflected as a liability of a US bank to a non-resident bank. And then the situation is reversed, i.e. it was a withdrawal of dollars from the US, specifically dollars (without conversion to other currencies). Actually, quite an interesting option, but then it has to be accompanied by a dumping of US assets, with a dumping of those assets by residents (otherwise it would be reflected in capital flows according to the Ministry of Finance reports) with a transfer of dollars from the US to non-resident banks. And in the first quarter alone, the amount would have been close to $300-350bn, which is not a small amount. According to the Fed, it could have been households (who had flushed $283bn worth of T-bills in Q1), but they flushed them into mutual funds and repaid some of their mortgage debts. This means that the withdrawal channels were slightly different. The mutual funds pumped money into the US credit and equity markets, of course the banks have reserves at the Fed in their assets, so it is not realistic to determine the source. Apparently most of the flow has passed as "Unidentified Miscellaneous Financial liabilities/assets", i.e. as such the ends there will be difficult to find. This option also has no full-fledged corroboration, but still looks relatively realistic.
What it means is that the Fed's money has been bluntly withdrawn in its entirety from the USA and stored in "dollars" outside the USA. If it is true (of course there are doubts that it is true, but nevertheless) - then QE2 is nothing but preparation for default on U.S. government bonds and this preparation began in advance and the Fed is a direct participant in the process. We'll see of course, but if the default is announced - then we can say with some certainty that the decision to default was made in advance and all the current games of the Republicans and Democrats is nothing but a brazen show.
Source http://www.alpari.ru/ru/fa/33465.html