Searching for market patterns - page 146
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Well yes, that's what I'm talking about. But here's the catch (which has led to retail forex brokers being ABSOLUTELY convinced that it's impossible to win on forex AROUND FOR MASS TRAADERS):
While you (not you specifically, Yusuf, but the trader in general) are making a calculation on say 500 point-price-bars, the market is working out the next twist that started say 50 bars ago. And your forecast (your numerical algorithm) is based on the movement of the market as a whole for the last 500 bars and does not take into account these last 50 bars of twists. A profound contradiction arises between the speed of a fundamental change in the market (just 50 bars ago, but it defines the market 450 bars ahead) and the resolving power of your market analysis algorithm. For example, the Quinn-Fernandes spectral algorithm requires at least 800 points (on M15) to work properly, while the autocorrelation algorithms require about 2200 points (on M15). During this time, the verdict made by the algorithm is already outdated, which allows retail forex brokers to confidently consider mass price prediction and earning impossible.
By the way, what is your calculation base - how many points does your algorithm need?We continue to look for patterns.
Many people suggest trying not to pay as much attention to the "time" factor as we do now. Well, let's try not to take this factor into consideration at all and present the result of price changes as a result of two opposing sides - bulls and bears. They are tirelessly pulling the rope and the price movement to one side or another depends on who gets help at the moment, and if the help does not come, they hold the defense with the forces available, which are characterized by the last value of the incoming help. It's a bit rambling, but I think I'll be able to get the point across in the further discussion of the good research results obtained in this direction.
Let me try to explain my thought with figures: suppose as a result of the bull support in the amount of +0.00035 points received with the last tick, the price reached the value С=1.38345. But in the aftermath there was a strong support for the bears with three ticks at once: -0.00020; -0.00043; -0.00011. The price reached the value C= 1.38345 - 0.00020 - 0.00043 - 0.00011 = 1.38271. Now if we want to describe the price change from bulls and bears strength as equation Y = Y0 + a + bB + cM, where B is bulls and M is bears, then Y1 = Y0 + a + bB1 + cM1; Y2 = Y0 + a + bB1 + cM2; Y3 = Y0 + a + bB1 + cM3 and we have a set of equation systems to estimate the coefficients a, b and c. Continuously following this procedure, we will re-estimate these coefficients with each tick. We should get the calculated price line serving as the definite indicator of its further direction. I want to inform you that I may be able to construct a similar indicator ahead of time, for several ticks. While you think over what I have described, I will post the obtained results and we will discuss them. It has turned out to be very interesting.
I got the following calculated price values according to the equation Yr = 1.2208 + 0.000049 + 0.4369B + 0.6795M, I hope the brown line is the indicator:
Relative "strength" of bulls and bears from 03. 02. 13 to 18. 04. 13 on D1, last state of the pair C = 1.327841 + 0.0088 + 0.58963B - 1.08552M (bears are clearly strong, as bulls need almost twice the point effort to overpower bears), here B is bulls points, M is bears points :
A. Elder is dead?
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There are no market patterns. It's all nonsense.
There are no market patterns. It's all nonsense.