The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 234
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Andrei Fursov: The fateful year 2014 in the mirror of history
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Published: 13 May 2014.
Andrei Fursov, Director of the Centre for Russian Studies at Moscow Humanities University, analyses the new geopolitical realities of the 21st century in the light of the historical experience of Russia and the world as a whole.
I think that trying to determine entry or exit points is a dead end. Depending on the selected TF, the TS should decide by itself how to enter the market (at the beginning of the TF by the indicator signal to buy or sell) or leave it (at any time, when the market changes to the opposite conditions of entry). It seems to me that only such a strict algorithm will help to understand the market and many debatable moments will disappear by themselves.
Regarding forecasts - whether we want to admit it or not - all of our actions are based on forecasts. Even taking a step into the void, the brain predicts that there is solid ground underfoot, and if in fact it will not turn out like that - it is a prediction error, to put it in an exaggerated way. Any dynamic processes must be predicted with one probability or another. Prediction and probability are concepts from different categories of state estimation. They cannot be compared and/or contrasted.
Walking in darkness I am not making predictions, but merely relying on experience, current sensations and their interpretation.
All this turmoil around "forecasting" is due to the fact that the term"forecasting" itself is perceived and interpreted differently by different people, and therefore has a completely different meaning in the understanding of different people. Therefore we should first define the meaning of the term, i.e. what exactly is meant by"forecasting". And then we can have a meaningful conversation.
You should agree that the range of meaning is too wide - from "monkey's expectations" to "exact meaning" ... with an intermediate "dokuda" ;)))
All this turmoil around "forecasting" is due to the fact that the term"forecasting" itself is perceived and interpreted differently by different people, and therefore has a completely different meaning in the understanding of different people. Therefore we should first define the meaning of the term, i.e. what exactly is meant by"forecasting". And then we can have a meaningful conversation.
You should agree that the range of meaning is too wide - from "monkey's expectations" to "exact meaning" ... with an intermediate "dokuda" ;)))
Don't blame your ignorance of the term "forecast" on others. Just look up the definition of the term in the dictionary:
"PROgnosis (from Greek prognosis--forecasting, predicting) is a probabilistic judgment about the future state of any process or phenomenon... A distinction is made between qualitative and quantitative, short-term and long-term, exploratory and normative forecasts. An exploratory forecast is an attempt on the basis of an analysis of existing trends to identify the prospects of their development, a normative forecast is a "forecast in reverse", when, based on a predetermined goal, one tries to predict the possible ways of achieving it...".
Don't blame your ignorance of the term "prognosis" on others. Just look up the definition of the term in the dictionary:
"PROGNOZ (from Greek prognosis, foreseeing, predicting) is a probabilistic judgment about the future state of any process or phenomenon... A distinction is made between qualitative and quantitative, short-term and long-term, exploratory and normative forecasts. An exploratory forecast is an attempt to identify the prospects of its development on the basis of an analysis of existing trends, while a normative forecast is the "opposite", when, based on a predetermined goal, one tries to predict possible ways of achieving it...".
Don't be nervous. My understanding of the term is similar to how the term is understood in cybernetics.
You gave a description, but in no way a definition.
Now explain concretely how this vague description should be understood as applied to our field. Explainwhat andunder what conditions is a prediction.
Don't be nervous. My understanding of the term is identical to the way it is understood in cybernetics.
You gave a description, but not a definition.
Now explain exactly how this vague description should be understood in relation to our field. Explain what and under what conditions is a prediction.
What does cybernetics have to do with it? That is, you have taken a narrow definition of the term and you are insinuating that you are clever and everyone is foolish.
What does cybernetics have to do with it? So you take some narrow definition of the term and insinuate that you are clever and everyone is a fool.
Why are you getting so nervous? You reproach me for ignorance, and I have explained to you the limits of my understanding of the term. That's all. And the rest of your text was inspired by your own irrepressible imagination.
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You better put your imagination to good use:
Explain your understanding ofwhat andunder what conditions is a prediction as applied to forex.
...what andunder what conditions is a forecast, -- as far as forex is concerned.
For example, you use the weather forecast for tomorrow and do not resent the definition. And as far as forex is concerned, what changes?
For example, you use the weather forecast for tomorrow and do not resent the definition. And as far as forex is concerned, what changes?
well, how can I put this delicately... that's a question that can be confusing ;)))
They are incomparable things, both in purpose and objectives. Or do you think a weather forecast is equivalent to a forex forecast?
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But even if it's the same for you,what andunder what conditions is a forecast, -- as applied to forex ???