The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 231
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All right, I'm not going to argue, it's all for naught, just theory, but in practice it's all for naught, the tractors never went
All right, I'm not going to argue, it's all for naught, just theory, but in practice it's all for naught, the tractors never went
You're wrong again. This time you are very much mistaken.
1 1 0 .....
1 0 1 .....
avtomat:You're making a big mistake by reversing cause and effect. First, NOT"the trading system has given a signal, so it predicts that there is a higher probability that the price will go up", but on the contrary, based on analysis of the current state the trading system decides whether to implement a particular action or not. Secondly, my system does NOT operate with probabilities, and not because I couldn't calculate them, but because it's not based on a probabilistic approach(which is not acceptable to me). There is NO prediction as you understand it.
Next. You get confused with the definition of state space, namely:"The system makes a prediction, you open a position, a state is formed, you close the position, the state changes" -- here you're including my position in the state vector. And this is not true. My position has nothing to do with the market state space.
Well, and about "explaining, pretending"... You can only explain to the extent of your limited knowledge and understanding. And everything that goes beyond the boundaries of that knowledge and understanding you perceive as "pretending". Expand the limits of your knowledge and your perception will change.
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For example, in the state space of two signals you can make the following table of outputs:
1 1 OpenBuy
1 0 CloseBuy
0 1 CloseSell
0 0 OpenSell
( total 2^2=4 )
.
Here's an exercise (similar, but more complicated):
Make a table of outputs in the state space of three signals:
1 1 1 OpenBuy
1 1 0 .....
1 0 1 .....
1 0 0 .....
0 1 1 .....
.....
( 2^3=8 in total )
.
and so on...
Complexity increases as 2^n
By adding an extra element to the table, wouldn't that be a desire to increase the probability of a prediction?
No matter how much anyone wants to deny the word "prediction", the "probability" will necessarily lie. If there's no prediction, it's nothing but a coin.
And this is a pure prediction. There is no need to be deceitful.
1 1 OpenBuy ------- is nothing but a prediction for an instrument to rise.
"
1 1 1 ..... increased forecast probability
0 0 0 .....
"1 0 CloseBuy ------- probability that the instrument will not go up again
0 1 CloseSell ------- probability that the instrument will not fall anymore.
0 0 OpenSell -------- nothing more than a prediction that the instrument will fall.
Markets are more successfully traded on probability or on the inside. Inside is preferable, but it does not guarantee 100% profitability in trades. Here is the tricky part - you need to know when to close this trade. Again with prediction, again with probability... .
By adding an extra element to the table, would it not be a desire to increase the probability of a prediction?
No matter how much anyone wants to deny the word "prediction", the "probability" will necessarily be deceiving. If there's no prediction, it's nothing but a coin.
And this is a pure prediction. There is no need to be deceitful.
1 1 OpenBuy ------- is nothing but a prediction for an instrument to rise.
"
1 1 1 ..... increased forecast probability
0 0 0 .....
"1 0 CloseBuy ------- probability that the instrument will not go up again
0 1 CloseSell ------- probability that the instrument will not fall anymore.
0 0 OpenSell -------- nothing more than a prediction that the instrument will fall.
Markets are more successfully traded on probability or on the inside. Inside is preferable, but it does not guarantee 100% profitability in trades. Here is the tricky part - you need to know when to close this trade. Again with prediction, again with probability... .
Your whole message only indicates your complete lack of knowledge of discrete mathematics. And it's not a probability, not a prediction -- it's a statement of fact.
For a start, leaf through a textbook, ask yourself what binary logic is; combinational circuit; two-entry, three-entry, n-entry element, etc. --- be sure, it will do you good, at least give you an idea of the subject and stop you from making hasty statements.
Your whole message only points to your complete lack of knowledge of discrete mathematics. And it's not a probability, it's not a prediction -- it's a statement of fact.
For a start, go through a textbook and find out what binary logic is; combinational circuitry; two-input, three-input, n-input elements, etc. --- don't doubt, it will do you good, at least give you an idea of the subject and stop you from making hasty statements.
No, not at all. Didn't mean to offend you. You're right about the maths. Weak.
No offense... God be with you...
And if you are (as you put it) "weak in mathematics", you should first think carefully before stating something in a field that you are unfamiliar with. Especially in such an ambiguous and very controversial field, concerning "probabilities". And to an even greater extent, such caution should be observed when it comes to "predictions".
By adding an extra element to the table, would it not be a desire to increase the probability of a prediction?
No matter how much anyone wants to deny the word "prediction", the "probability" will necessarily be deceiving. If there's no prediction, it's nothing but a coin.
And this is a pure prediction. There is no need to be deceitful.
1 1 OpenBuy ------- is nothing but a prediction for an instrument to rise.
"
1 1 1 ..... increased forecast probability
0 0 0 .....
"1 0 CloseBuy ------- probability that the instrument will not go up again
0 1 CloseSell ------- probability that the instrument will not fall anymore.
0 0 OpenSell -------- nothing more than a prediction that the instrument will fall.
Markets are more successfully traded on probability or on the inside. Inside is preferable, but it does not guarantee 100% profitability in trades. Here is the tricky part - you need to know when to close this trade. Again with prediction, again with probability... .
By trading systematically, we make a prediction that our system will work)) There are no probabilities in the mathematical sense as there is no convergence (non-stationarity). And frequencies are simply the consequence of a series of returns on history. Perhaps only for systems with fixed stop and take we can talk about frequencies and prediction. In most systems we cannot predict where we will go and therefore every time we bet on different market events. The frequencies of profitable and loss-making trades are just the arithmetic mean of outcomes of different events under different conditions, which contradicts the definition of probability and its estimation (frequency).
I had to look into the WIKI. What am I wrong about?
Probability is the degree (measure, quantification) of the possibility of an event occurring. When the reasons for a possible event to happen in reality outweigh the opposite reasons, the event is called probable, otherwise it is called improbable or unlikely. The preponderance of positive grounds over negative grounds, and vice versa, can be to varying degrees, with the consequence that probability (and improbability) is greater or lesser[1]. Therefore, probability is often assessed at a qualitative level, especially in cases where a more or less precise quantification is impossible or extremely difficult. Different gradations of "levels" of probability are possible[2].
The study of probability from a mathematical point of view constitutes a special discipline - probability theory[1]. In probability theory and mathematical statistics, the concept of probability is formalised as a numerical characteristic of an event - a probability measure (or its value) - a measure on the set of events (subsets of the set of elementary events), taking values from to . The value corresponds to a credible event. An impossible event has probability 0 (the converse is not always true, generally speaking). If the probability of occurrence of an event is , then the probability of its non-occurrence is . Specifically, probability means the equal probability of occurrence and non-occurrence of an event.
The classical definition of probability is based on the concept of equal probability of outcomes. Probability is the ratio of the number of outcomes favourable to a given event to the total number of equally possible outcomes. For example, the probability of a coin toss for heads or tails is 1/2, if it is assumed that only these two possibilities occur[3] and they are equally possible. This classical "definition" of probability can be generalized to the case of infinite number of possible values - for example, if some event can happen with equal probability in any point (number of points is infinite) of some limited area of space (plane), then the probability that it happens in some part of this admissible area is equal to the ratio of volume (area) of this part to the volume (area) of area of all possible points.
The empirical 'definition' of probability relates to the frequency of occurrence of an event on the assumption that, given a sufficiently large number of trials, the frequency should tend towards an objective degree of possibility of that event. In a modern account of probability theory, probability is defined axiomatically, as a special case of the abstract set measure theory. However, the link between the abstract measure and the probability, which expresses the degree of possibility of an event occurring, is precisely the frequency of its observation.
The probabilistic description of certain phenomena is widespread in modern science, in particular in econometrics and in statistical physics of macroscopic (thermodynamic) systems where even in the case of the classical deterministic description of particle motion the deterministic description of the whole system of particles is not practical and feasible. In quantum physics, the described processes themselves have a probabilistic nature.
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Choice of high probability of correct entry direction (and exit too) multiplied by the number of trades = profitable TS at a distance. Accordingly there must be reasonable stops and profits. Simple mathematics.
The set of rules for entry is nothing but a probabilistic value. What is the point of the argument?
I think this was discussed at the beginning of the thread... any position opening = forecast...
If the min position`s lifetime is 2 bars for example any position opening will have a forecast
in the direction of 2 bars or more (max position`s lifetime)...
It does not matter how lucky or unlucky or with what probability... we are initially expecting within the next 2 bars... that is, we are forecasting...
A high probability of correct entry direction (and exit as well) multiplied by the number of trades = a profitable TS over the distance. Respectively there should be stops and profits within reasonable limits. Simple mathematics.
The set of rules for entry is nothing but a probabilistic value. What is the point of the argument?
I agree withavtomat-learn the math. And in mathematics, you should not just read, but understand and solve practical problems. That is, you must take the formula for how probability is calculated (estimated) in practice and which conditions must be met, rather than just taking an abstract definition from the wiki. Look at the requirement of homogeneity and independence of tests when determining probability and how it relates to our practical problem.