[Archive! - page 184

[Sceptic Philozoff]

10 days in the life of a private trader (MICEX, second tier).

[Виктор]

I'll put it in the kurikuyu for now, our forecasters will specify where this material belongs.

Akayev and Sadovnichy: Mathematics rules! (date of publication January 21, 2011)

1. The global economic crisis of 2008 could be predicted in a year and a half with an accuracy of 1-2 months by approximating the development of oil prices using a power function with a finite singularity.

2. The beginning of the second crisis wave - July-August, 2011 - was predicted by approximating the dynamics of gold prices by means of a power function with finite singularity and determining the parameter characterizing the critical period by the method of least squares.

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Interested, MK's correspondent approached one of the "soothsayers", Askar Akayev. I heard that there were several predictions; one of them was that "the US markets will crash on August 3, 2011. The mathematicians were one day wrong.

[михаил потапыч]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LGQYJ01riY&feature=player_embedded

[Sceptic Philozoff]

granit77: Akayev and Sadovnichy: Maths rules! (date of publication 21 January 2011)

Impressive, especially about August 3. It is a pity that the article itself is not available as a pdf.

[Andrey Dik]

granit77:
I'll put it in the kurikuyu for now, our forecasters will clarify where this material belongs.

Akayev and Sadovnichy: Mathematics rules! (date of publication January 21, 2011)

1. The global economic crisis of 2008 could be predicted in a year and a half with an accuracy of 1-2 months by approximating the development of oil prices using a power function with a finite singularity.

2. The beginning of the second crisis wave - July-August, 2011 - was predicted by approximating the dynamics of gold prices by means of a power function with finite singularity and determining the parameter characterizing the critical period by the method of least squares.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interested, MK's correspondent approached one of the "soothsayers", Askar Akayev. I heard that there were several predictions; one of them was that "the US markets will crash on August 3, 2011. The mathematicians were one day wrong.

The hard fit is a clever thought, as usual, after the fact.

[михаил потапыч]

joo:
tight fit

Joined

[Andrey Dik]

Mischek:

Joining

Who and what? :)

[михаил потапыч]

joo:
Who and why? :)

Я. To your opinion. // Jusufing takes it to the next level )

[Виктор]

Mischek:
Я. To your opinion. // Jusufing takes it to the next level )

You are both nihilists. No offence to our candidate Akayev is a world-renowned scientist (vice-president of the Kyrgyz Academy of Sciences back in Soviet times). The only thing in common is that Akaev is also trying to transfer mathematical methods of natural sciences research (computer models of optical and thermophysical processes) to economics. I heard his detailed interview, it turns out that the authors have developed an adequate mathematical model of the world economy, which allows you to predict crises 3-5 years ahead, regardless of the specific actions of countries and governments. Explains it very convincingly, in good professorial language. My wife almost scratched my face when I allowed myself to snicker at the words "price approximation and least squares processing".

[михаил потапыч]

granit77:
You are both nihilists. No offence to our candidate, Akayev is a world-renowned scientist (vice-president of the Kyrgyz Academy of Sciences back in Soviet times).

"Cantora writes" (c).