EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 756

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The euro rose against the dollar, the yen and strengthened its position against a number of other major currencies amid speculation that despite ongoing problems in so-called peripheral Europe, the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to avoid rising inflationary expectations.
Thus, yields on two-year Greek government bonds exceeded 20%, reaching a record high of 20.73%. Against this background, the cost of insuring Greek and Portuguese debt obligations reached record levels, indicating that investors estimate the probability of default on these instruments within five years at 60%.
Evidence of rising manufacturing activity in Germany and the eurozone as a whole has now pushed the effects of the sovereign debt crisis in a number of eurozone countries out of investors' focus. According to Markit Economics the manufacturing sentiment index of Europe's largest economy rose unexpectedly in April to 61.7 against 60.9 in March and the economists' consensus forecast of 60. Recall that a figure above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Also, note that speaking the day before ECB Governing Council member Noeth Wellink said that the ECB's rate hike on 7 April was a message to investors of a "very important signal" in the fight against rising inflation.
"The ECB's message was very clear and is that the bank intends to continue the process of raising rates," said Cathy Lien, director of New York-based GFT Forex. "This fact, combined with positive economic data, is what is supporting the euro."
 
...which will fall faster: the euro or the dollar? Next week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to give a speech in which he might point out some forgotten aspects to the markets, in particular the bank's intention to keep rates low for an extended period. Federal funds rate futures take into account a 29% probability of a rate hike by December and Eurodollar futures on the interbank market suggest that the rate will not rise above 0.5% by the end of the year. However, according to analysts at BNP Paribas, the market is again trying to "get ahead of the curve". "Bernanke's press conference might dampen their fervor and smooth the impression of the recent comments from FOMC members, who openly hinted at the need to tighten monetary policy." Also the decision of Standard & Poor's to downgrade the outlook on the US sovereign rating to negative prevented a sharp strengthening of the dollar. High unemployment, a huge budget deficit and rising government debt without a clear plan to address the problem forced S&P to take such a step. "We believe there is a real danger that the U.S. authorities will not reach an agreement to resolve medium- and long-term budget problems before 2013," the New York-based rating agency said. - If no agreement is reached and Washington does not begin to implement substantial reforms, it will mean that the country's fiscal position is significantly worse than that of standard AAA rating holders".
 
Hi all. Margaret is all about educating the people)))
 
Fartowiy:
Bumped H4. Sell. AUD-USD. Possible pullback. from 1.0665 to TP1. 1,061
Are there any sigans on AUD-USD, I am sitting in a drawdown?
 
strangerr:
Hi all. Margaret is all enlightening people)))

Hi. How was your holiday?

 
strangerr:
Hi all. Margaret is all about educating the people)))
Hi =)
 
We'll keep going up... Waiting for London to enter for a clearer signal (:
 
strangerr:
Hi all. Margaret is all about educating the people)))

Hi! Without you the thread has gone stale))))
 

Hello all! Strangerr, how's the holiday?

Question: could you tell me if there is a timetable on the Internet for rating different countries by different agencies? In general, there is such a schedule or they can review it when they want? If there is no schedule, then what is the periodicity?

For example, if Greece is put on the list for review with probable downgrade, will they review it then or will it be a surprise later :))

 
strangerr:
Hi all. Margaret is all about educating the people)))
Now the branch will be more active)))))
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