EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 2) - page 484

[RekkeR]

NikT_58:
Comrade, on the right track.

"It's cool to see from the outside who's on what path. Too bad you have to know the wrong path yourself, at the very least."

RekkeR

[[Deleted]]

strangerr:

The stop triggered -50.

I don't expect more than 50-60pp to move up at the beginning of next week.

Completely agree with Galina that next week will be a correction (4th wave), I expect something like this (blue rectangle):

Throw me a link to a calculator, please

[Алексей Тарабанов]

Bocman:

I will try to describe in my own words how the channels work, if it turns out that I am wrong I will accept your FORUM comments

So, to draw (parallel) channel needs 3 points in our case we have 2a LY and 1n HAY, on =LY we draw a trend line, then move it to HAY, so as practice shows that during the 2nd approach to the trend line price bounces in the opposite direction and in 95% of cases (5% will be left for some force majeure) should be the 3rd approach to the breach of the trend line in our case, drawn on LY

Actually I am lazy, but I wanted to understand - 5% of what? I drew these very channels on the daily chart. There are only 5 force majeure events in the last two years.

[Waleriy Wandenko]

tara:

Actually, I'm lazy, but I wanted to understand - 5% of what? I plotted these same channels on the daily chart. Only five force majeure events in the last two years.

The correct way to put it would be

[Александр Шевчук]

tara:

Actually, I'm lazy, but I wanted to understand - 5% of what? I plotted these same channels on the daily chart. There were only 5 force majeure events in the last two years.

It is possible to draw not channels but just a trendline:

For Torgus:

[Алексей Тарабанов]

Bocman:

The correct way would be to draw it like this

It depends on what it is right for. I am based on the applicability of the channel for trading.

[Waleriy Wandenko]

tara:
That depends on what is the right thing to do. I'm based on the applicability of the channel for trading.

Because the 1st is support and the second trendline acts as the strongest resistance

[[Deleted]]

strangerr:

You can draw not channels but just a trend line:

For Torgus:

Thank you so much!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Алексей Тарабанов]

Bocman:

Because the first one is support and the second trend is the strongest resistance

Bocman, get into the gist of my drawing. It shows that in 21 and a half months your statement about the inevitability (95%) of a breakdown of the trend at its third touch by the price worked for two or three weeks. In other words, less than 5% of the time interval. The rest 95% of time was force majeure, i.e. a force majeure circumstance. Have you tried trading in the channel?

[[Deleted]]

I am trying to make predictions using my own channels and Cowan's ellipses. On the pound, I think a trend reversal is in the making.

On the chart you can see that the price has crossed the trend line (red) from top to bottom.

I would especially like to ask Strangerr's opinion