[Archive!] Pure mathematics, physics, chemistry, etc.: brain-training problems not related to trade in any way - page 518
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Why argue, it's 50/50. Either you guessed it or you didn't :)
Yeah, I'll either meet a dinosaur in the street today or I won't :)))))))
Alexei, who is going to draw the conclusions?
Yeah, I'll either meet a dinosaur in the street today or I won't :)))))))
As luck would have it.
I rather liked the answer to the question given by one "thinker". I'll tell you right off the bat - I got it on Bashorg. Even though it's just humour, the question still fits into the category of mathematics :)
<Rodriguez> Camelpho: Tell me, if a black cat crossed back and forth, what does it mean? Has he doubled his punishment, or reversed his decision?
<Camelpho> Rôdriguez: is the cat scalar or vector?
<Camelpho> if it's scalar, he doubled it.
<Camelpho> if it's vector, he reversed it.
P.S.
I was thrilled with such an answer to my question :))))))))))))))
Screw it, this virus. With such a vague question and such a broad interpretation of the condition, there is simply no solution.
If we consider the problem as a correct one, I see only one interrelation: variants A)-G) are all possible answers to some question of the problem, which we do not know. And among them there is the only correct one (even if it is 25%, it is still the only one). That's then the answer is 0.375. Imho, of course.
... The answer options to some question of the problem that we don't know. And among them there is a correct one. That's when the answer is 0.375. Imho, of course. ... "
Alexey, your only disadvantage (also imho) is vagueness of wording. Combined with adherence to probability theory it is killer (strictly imho).
In short, if you have to choose one of the items, we have a paradox. The paradox is here -- http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/76491/does-this-question-even-have-an-answer
If you answer without selecting items, then imho you can answer 0.33 or not enough data.
We have 3 ways of answering correctly -- 1 (25%) 2 (50%) 3 (60%) P(1) = 0.33 P(2) = 0.33 P(3) = 0.33 (we don't even have these probabilities, 0.33 just because the numbers are equal)
P = P(a == 1|1)*P(1) + P(a == 2)*P(2) + P(a == 3|3)*P(3) ;
No, not three, but four. Vasya (the one who guesses) doesn't look at the numbers, he doesn't care about them. He just sees 4 answer choices and chooses one of them at random.
There will still be 3 terms in the formula for probability, but their probabilities will be different.