Money management strategies. Martingale. - page 12

 
Avals >> :

If backgammon was not restricted in any way - "you can't stand on occupied squares" - then winning would not depend on the player's choice, but only on chance - dice rolls and the process would be martingale. And who would play such a game? :)


Um... if in forex everyone could open at whatever price they wanted, who wouldn't play it...

 

By the way, there's a simple test that works on all majors, but the results are different on a martingale.

We calculate how long the price is at the levels of the pattern. I.e. the last two figures: if the EUR is 1.4368, then it is at the level of 68. We write a script, that runs through all candlesticks of the history and read where the prices were from the highs to the lows. If the process is marting, any position is equal and the chart would be a horizontal straight line. This is not the case in reality.

EURUSD:___________________________________________GBPUSD:

USDCAD:_____________________________________________AUDUSD:

 
Avals >> :

By the way, there's a simple test that works on all majors, but the results are different on a martingale.

We calculate how long the price is at the levels of the pattern. I.e. the last two figures: if the EUR is 1.4368, then it is at the level of 68. We write a script, that runs through all candlesticks of the history and read where the prices were from the highs to the lows. If the process is marting, any position is equal and the chart would be a horizontal straight line. This is not the case.

EURUSD: GBPUSD:

USDCAD: AUDUSD:

You mean: the market is not a random process.

 
sanyooooook писал(а) >>

You are saying: the market is not a random process.

first of all - the market is not a process;

second - forex is not a market;

Thirdly - the processes that lead to changes in rates (in Forex) are not random;

 
sanyooooook писал(а) >>

You mean: the market is not a random process.

sort of :) Otherwise why are we all here?

 
PapaYozh >> :


Secondly - forex is not a market;


Well now Forex is going to stop being a market, then I'm completely confused %)

 
sanyooooook писал(а) >>

You mean the market is not random.

It is random, but not so random that you can't make money.

 
Avals >>: If the process is martingale, then any position is equally likely and the graph would be a horizontal straight line. This is not the case in reality.

>> I wouldn't be so categorical.

 
PapaYozh >> :

Firstly - the market is not a process;

Second - forex is not a market;

Third - the processes that lead to changes in exchange rates (in Forex) are not random;

Here comes the nerd theory again:


The market is a process of price change.

Forex is a market because currencies are exchanged on market terms, although there is no single exchange platform.

Random or not? To a greater or lesser extent true. For example, someone mistakenly (by his own or a computer's mistake) mixed up Buy and Sell with a large lot, which influenced the price and the further price movement. Or someone believed the news and later received a rebuttal, but prices had already changed. These are random factors. But some participants stick to certain trading strategies because they turn out to be profitable in the end and it makes no sense to change them. These are non-random factors.

 
Reshetov писал(а) >>

Here we go again with the nerdiness:

Are you afraid of being forgotten?

Reason: